Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 8, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
639 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms are
expected this evening across parts of the OK and TX Panhandles.
Storm movement will generally be to the southeast. Have omitted
mention of tstms at all TAF sites due to low confidence in any one
site being impacted and expected mainly sparse coverage.
Thunderstorm potential is forecast to diminish late tonight. Some
cumulus clouds should redevelop Friday afternoon. However,
thunderstorm formation is not anticipated at this time at any of
the terminal sites.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Potential exists for severe thunderstorms this evening.
Moderately unstable airmass remains in place, and shear will be
increasing as mid-level jet streak arrives from the northwest and
low-level jet develops, setting up across eastern sections.  A
few thunderstorms may continue past midnight in eastern sections.

Dry weather will prevail beginning Saturday, as mid-level ridge
sets up over West Texas.  Dry southwest flow aloft resumes
Sunday, with Gulf remaining closed through at least Monday.
Models and ensembles in good agreement through Tuesday, featuring
dry air overhead and lee trof helping to support higher than
normal 850 mb temperatures.  This leads us to maintain forecast
of maximum temperatures above those offered by blend through
Tuesday, with potential for Heat Advisory criteria being reached
in Palo Duro Canyon.

Model divergence increases Tuesday and beyond, although there is
good support for a brief cold frontal intrusion Tuesday night into
Wednesday.  Have accepted blend's idea of precipitation resuming
Tuesday across eastern sections, but have limited pops to only
slight chance.

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
344 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-091100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
344 PM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Through Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A few storms may become strong to
severe with hail up to two inches in diameter and strong winds up
to 70 MPH being the primary hazards. Also, an isolated tornado
cannot be ruled out, mainly across the eastern half of the
Panhandles.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Well above average daily high temperatures are expected Friday
through Tuesday. High temperatures may approach Heat Advisory
criteria for the Palo Duro Canyon State Park.

Thunderstorms will be possible again next week Tuesday and
Wednesday, mainly across the eastern half of the Panhandles.
Right now no severe weather is anticipated for these storms, but
we will continue to monitor the forecast and make adjustments as
needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters and emergency officials should be ready for limited
activation through this evening.

Cockrell