Flash Flood and Flood in Kansas, June 8, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
828 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 825 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

WV imagery indicates weak upper level ridging transitioning eastward
across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, an upper level trough of
low pressure is pushing ashore into the Pacific Northwest. Near the
surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is strengthening across
eastern Colorado.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

Lee troughing will continue across eastern Colorado through
tonight leading to southerly winds felt across western Kansas. A
few storms may linger across portions of the CWA this morning but
should dissipate or move out of the area by this afternoon. Cloudy
conditions are expected this morning with decreasing clouds this
afternoon. A slight chance of storms will be possible across
central and south central Kansas after midnight with dry
conditions elsewhere. Highs today look to reach into the mid to
upper 80s with lows tonight in the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected Friday through
at least Monday as an upper level ridge slides eastward overhead
with a large dome of high pressure east of the CWA at the surface.
Lee troughing will continue across eastern Colorado during this
time frame bringing southerly winds to western Kansas. The next
chance of precipitation looks to be Tuesday as models suggest an
upper level disturbance moving through the Northern Plains which
will in turn push a cold front through the area. Highs Friday look
to range from the upper 90s across far western Kansas with around
90 degrees elsewhere. Highs then reach into the 90s this weekend
and Monday with a few places reaching the 100 degree mark during
these days. Highs are forecasted to only reach to around 90
degrees for the remainder of the long term forecast. Lows will be
in the 60s Friday night, then around 70 degrees Saturday night
through Monday night. Lows then cool down as we head into the mid
part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 657 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

An overnight cluster of thunderstorms continued to dissolve with
no further impacts expected at the terminals (DDC, GCK, HYS, or
LBL). Winds will become south to southeast with speeds increasing
to 12 to 15 knots late morning/midday. A few gusts during the
afternoon in the lower 20s knots expected. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  84  62  90  67 /  50  20   0   0
GCK  87  61  94  66 /  50  10   0   0
EHA  90  60  96  64 /  10  10  10   0
LBL  88  61  94  66 /  20  10   0   0
HYS  84  62  91  69 /  20  30   0   0
P28  85  63  89  69 /  30  30  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
507 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-091015-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
507 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2017 /407 AM MDT Thu Jun 8 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------
Scattered showers and thunderstorms early this morning will
continue to move southeast across southwest and eventually
south central Kansas through the mid to late morning hours.
These will likely dissolve by late morning. The rest of the
day will likely be quiet with any additional thunderstorm
activity likely remaining west of the Colorado border through
the early evening hours.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------
Hot temperatures will lead to heat indices in the 98 to
103 degree range Saturday and Sunday. Strong south winds
will develop this weekend as well, especially on Sunday
when winds are expected to range 25 to 35 mph with higher
gusts.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Elevated risk

* Monday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo