Unusual for early winter, a squall line with severe winds at times trekked northeast over much of the Texas South Plains late this evening. Despite minimal instability, these storms developed ahead of a compact upper low with very strong lift.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Unusual for early winter, a squall line with severe winds at times trekked northeast over much of the Texas South Plains late this evening. Despite minimal instability, these storms developed ahead of a compact upper low with very strong lift. The result was isolated severe wind gusts and wind damage over portions of Yoakum and Terry Counties. Elsewhere over the South Plains, this New Year's Day MCS produced strong wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph, heavy rainfall up to one half inch and frequent cloud-to-ground lightning.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 1, 5:26 PM CST, 2 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 526 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017 .AVIATION... Storm complex from MMCU to ELP to CNX will continue moving toward the tri-airport region (CDS/LBB/PVW) and affect these terminals primarily in the period 03Z-09Z. VFR conditions are expected to largely persist as the activity moves through. Some embedded thunderstorm activity is possible as well. Monday will be windy. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CST Sun Jan 1 2017/ SHORT TERM... An unusual January pattern will take shape for this evening and overnight followed by a more normal winter time fire weather day on Monday. A quick and compact upper level low will continue to race across the southwestern US late this afternoon and then move across central Texas overnight. This system is fairly robust generating thunderstorms across southern California early this morning and then through Arizona and New Mexico during the daytime. We will see strong lift from this low as it quickly transverses through the lone star state. An upper level jet is not exceptionally strong in advance of the low but increasing curvature to the jet will increase the upper level divergence over the region. Large scale subsidence will quickly fill in behind this system on Monday morning. Temperatures will cool a few Celsius degrees at 500mb as this trough passes over the area. Despite this cooling at mid levels and steepening mid level lapse rates, instability will not be all that impressive this evening. What will be impressive, especially for early January, will be the amount of shear which combined with the strong lift can make up for the lack of robust instability. Good turning at low levels and deep layer shear between 45-50kt will support strong to possibly severe convection. The most likely severe threat would be severe wind gusts as opposed to hail. Very strong subsidence will encompass the area tomorrow afternoon in the wake of the departing upper level trough. This will bring very dry air down to the surface which models tend to over-forecast. It will likely be drier than what models currently indicate and the forecast was trended in that direction leading to a possible elevated fire weather day. LONG TERM... Significant differences in the handling of the upper air pattern occurred with the medium range solutions overnight and continued into the 12Z run today. The main feature being whether a retrograding upper low over the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday opens up and stays connected to a trough rotating around the polar low over eastern Canada, as the ECMWF suggests, or continues retrograding into a rex block over the northeast Pacific with downstream ridging, as the GFS indicates. For what it's worth, the 15Z SREF had a signature favoring the ECMWF which ends up with a much more significant push of cold air on Thursday that lasts into the weekend. The more "ridgy" GFS brings some colder air through Thursday then modifies it Friday before sending another reinforcement in Saturday though much weaker than the ECMWF by some 15-20 degrees by then. The tail end of the trough that lags with the ECMWF also brings with it some low precip chances late Thursday into Friday. After coordination with neighboring offices we have decided to favor the more consistent ECMWF handling of the upper air pattern which would bring the initial front in Tuesday with some modification Wednesday before bring in a colder airmass that stays into the weekend. Overall made slight adjustments upward on temperatures early in the forecast with trends of the first front being somewhat tamer. After this, maintained 30s for highs Thursday with colder than guidance temps Fri/Sat as the second surge moves down the lee of the Rockies. Also kept the slight chance POPs on Friday though changed precip type to rain/snow to agree with diurnal ranges. Needless to say this forecast has some pretty high uncertainty. FIRE WEATHER... The fire weather threat remains unclear for Monday afternoon because of expected widespread rainfall during the evening and overnight hours. Strong drying will take place on Monday afternoon and combined with warm temperatures will lead to minimum relative humidity values between 16 and 20 percent. Furthermore, winds will be strong out of the west for areas on the caprock with 20 foot winds close to 20 mph. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 99/99/26
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1243 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2017 TXZ021>044-021845- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 1243 PM CST SUN JAN 1 2017 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS...ROLLING PLAINS AND THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND SOUTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH DRY AIR AND STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 128 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:51 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Wind gusts of 58 mph and 64 mph were measured by a Texas Tech University West Texas Mesonet station at 1950 and 1955 CST, respectively.
Law enforcement reported downed power lines on some streets in Brownfield.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 664501, 664502.