Drought conditions continued across the northeast counties of North Texas. By mid-January, conditions reached extreme drought across two counties before beneficial rain moved in late January and brought a reprieve from the extreme drought.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Drought conditions continued across the northeast counties of North Texas. By mid-January, conditions reached extreme drought across two counties before beneficial rain moved in late January and brought a reprieve from the extreme drought.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 31, 10:55 PM CST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1055 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2016 .AVIATION... /06Z TAFs/ Concerns...IFR conditions at the Metroplex airports Sunday morning. MVFR/IFR conditions at all the airports Sunday evening and night. Low threat for thunder Sunday morning, but higher potential for thunder late Sunday night into Monday morning. Metroplex airports...IFR cigs and fog are expected to spread across the Metroplex airports late tonight as low-level moisture increases from the east. Deteriorating conditions are expected to start between 10-12Z and persist through at least midday. We will have to monitor for possible LIFR/VLIFR conditions with visby AOB 1/4 mile and cigs below 500 feet for a period of time. As south winds return across the region in the late morning hours, models indicate an improvement to VFR at the Metroplex airports, but there is a low chance the airports remain in sub-VFR conditions through the afternoon hours. MVFR and IFR cigs are expected to return north across the airports Sunday evening and night ahead of a line of thunderstorms. Showers with a low potential for an isolated thunderstorm will cross North Texas Sunday morning, most likely between 12-18Z. For now, will continue with VCSH as lapse rates appear a little too weak for thunderstorms and the best lift will be north of the region. Better rain chances are late Sunday night into Monday morning as widespread thunderstorms, likely in the form of a squall line move across the region. These storms could be severe. Waco airport....A stalled front to the east of Waco is expected to keep the low cigs and fog east of KACT. Therefore, VFR conditions will prevail with north-northwest winds tonight becoming southeasterly by midday Sunday. MVFR, or possibly IFR, cigs are expected to spread north into KACT early Sunday evening. It is possible a stray shower could move across the airport Sunday morning. Better rain chances are expected Sunday night into Monday morning as widespread thunderstorms, likely in the form of a squall line, moves across the region. These storms could be severe. JLDunn && .UPDATE... Another update here to include the Dense Fog Advisory, which is in effect for locations east of a Sherman to Rockwall to Hearne line from 11 PM CST to 10 AM CST on Sunday. Surface observations across Eastern Texas reveal steadily lowering visibilities late this evening. As surface winds continue to veer towards an easterly direction across our eastern counties, this moisture will be steadily ushered into the region which will result in deteriorating visibilities through the overnight hours. Confidence in the western terminus of the dense fog remains a bit uncertain, and as a result, have left Tarrant, Dallas, and our I-35 Counties out of the advisory. We will continue to monitor observations, but would not be surprised if the Dense Fog Advisory needs to be expanded westward by a county or two. Carlaw && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CST Sat Dec 31 2016/ Quiet, warm, and breezy weather was occurring this afternoon, as weak cold front continues to slide southward through our northwest counties. The current front will likely stall across Central Texas by midnight, then lift gradually northward through the morning hours in response to height falls associated with a shortwave trough currently over NW New Mexico. The brief low level warm advection and lift from the shortwave, along with forcing with the warm front will likely produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms late tonight and potentially across parts of the area later Sunday morning. No severe weather is expected with this system Sunday morning. In addition, moisture convergence near and just southeast of the stalled frontal boundary will likely result in patchy to areas of fog, mainly across the eastern half of the area where low level dew points are higher. Localized dense fog may occur southeast of a Sulphur Spring-Corsicana-Waco- Killeen line, but for now, will let the evening shift determine any need for an early morning dense fog advisory on Sunday. After the next shortwave departs the area New Years Day/Sunday afternoon, the warm front will have surged north of the Red River with North and Central Texas back into the warm sector. Currently advertising mid 60s north to lower 70s south due to lingering cloud cover. That said, if we partially clear out and get any insolation going, my highs may be too low for New Years Day/Sunday. With the area in between disturbances, have decreased previous rain chances Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. I will advertise better chances for warm advection showers with isolated thunderstorms across the far eastern counties later Sunday evening as we await our more vigorous shortwave trough now located over San Francisco, California. This disturbance will move over far West Texas and the High Plains of the Texas Panhandle during the evening hours, before lifting east across our area overnight Sunday night and Monday morning. Models have shown this system to be a tad deeper and further south in its track, meaning our confidence for severe weather has increased, especially along and south of the I-20/I-30 corridors. These areas will have the richest dew points, especially across our Central Texas counties, where SBCAPE values 1000-2000 J/KG will exist with elevated lapse rates approaching 7-8 Deg C/KM. Throw in southwesterly 0-6km bulk shear on the order of 40-50 knots and we're looking at a set up for severe storms, most likely in the form of a QLCS moving readily east across the area. Though severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a book-end vortex type of tornado or two, the best threat for severe storms will be from D/FW south where the better instability will reside for deeper and stronger updrafts. The current Slight Risk area looks situated in the appropriate area and would not be surprised parts of Central and South-Central Texas are put in a higher category if model track and trends continue on all these parameters. Be prepared for some rocky weather to begin the new year 2017. The main window appears to be 2 am to 9 or 10 am Monday morning due to the deeper/slower nature of the shortwave disturbance. The progressive nature of this system should keep any hydrologic concerns brief and minimal. The severe threat will remain over the eastern counties later Monday morning. before shifting east of the area for the afternoon hours, as a pacific cold front moves out of the area. That said, plenty of insolation and west winds should allow highs Monday afternoon to warm well into the 70s. The mild conditions will continue Monday night with lows mostly in the 40s to lower 50s with light west-southwest winds continuing into Tuesday morning. The next item of concern is an arctic cold front that is expected into the area during the day Tuesday, as flow aloft remains mostly zonal with most energy rippling through remaining north of the Red River Valley. Even so, much colder and frigid temperatures more conducive for January area expected late Tuesday and through the end of the week. With MOS Guidance and model guidance not being cold enough, even with shallow arctic outbreaks, I have decided to cut highs and low under MOS Wednesday through Friday. Regarding wintry weather, have toned down the latter half of the week to either a slight chance of very light rain/sleet or a few flurries or sprinkles. As noted previously, better forcing will remain to the north. In addition, moisture quality does not look very good, especially the potential for ice nuclei to seed lower level moisture. The main theme for the first week of January will be the bitter cold temperatures. The arctic air will begin shifting gradually east of the area by next weekend, with a slow modification of temperatures back toward normals for this time of the year, but not quite. Lows will be mostly in the 30s with highs 45 to 55 degrees. No concerns for rain next weekend as of this writing. 05 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 46 67 59 71 49 / 10 30 80 60 0 Waco 46 69 58 73 45 / 10 30 80 60 0 Paris 47 64 57 70 48 / 5 30 70 90 5 Denton 40 66 55 71 47 / 20 30 70 50 0 McKinney 43 65 57 71 46 / 10 30 70 70 0 Dallas 48 67 60 73 49 / 10 30 80 60 0 Terrell 47 68 59 73 47 / 10 30 70 80 0 Corsicana 48 70 62 73 48 / 10 20 70 80 0 Temple 46 70 59 72 47 / 20 30 80 60 0 Mineral Wells 39 68 52 71 44 / 20 30 80 20 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for TXZ093>095-104>107- 120>123-135-147-148-162-175. && 82/90
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1008 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2016 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-020415- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO- FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE- LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 1008 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT EAST OF A BOWIE TO HILLSBORO TO MARLIN TO KILLEEN LINE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SHERMAN TO ROCKWALL TO HEARNE LINE. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AREAS OF FOG...INCLUDING SOME DENSE FOG ALONG AND EAST OF A SHERMAN TO ROCKWALL TO HEARNE LINE...MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR AND NORTH OF A COMANCHE TO DFW TO PARIS LINE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING AND THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A CISCO TO DFW TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE AS A LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THIS REGION. THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 70 MPH...AND LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. THERE WILL BE A LOW RISK FOR A BRIEF...EMBEDDED TORNADO OR TWO WITHIN THE MAIN STORM COMPLEX. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL THAT STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR...THESE STORMS WOULD POSE RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO RISK. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MAINLY FOR PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AND ICE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. PLEASE CHECK BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
January in Lamar County began with severe drought (D2), and by the second week of January, the northern half of the county reached extreme drought (D3). Beneficial rain moved in the last week of January ending the D3 conditions, leaving severe drought in place.
January in Fannin County began with severe drought (D2), and by the second week of January, the northeastern quarter of the county reached extreme drought (D3). Beneficial rain moved in the last week of January ending the D3 conditions, leaving severe drought conditions in place.
D2/Severe drought conditions were in place across the northern half of Hunt County for all of January 2017.
D2/Severe drought conditions were in place across Delta County for all of January 2017.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 673538, 673541, 673542, 673543.