NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 30, 6:29 PM CST, 31 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 30, 6:29 PM CST, 31 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
629 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017
.AVIATION...
An Arctic cold front has moved through the TAF sites as of 23z.
Expect borderline MVFR/IFR conditions through the evening at the
Metroplex sites with ceilings mainly 1000-1300 feet which may
lower to around 700 feet in drizzle and fog. Some drier air will
work its way in from the northeast mid to late evening, so have
ended the -DZ at 04z. Temperatures across the Metroplex ranged
from 35 degrees at KAFW to 40 degrees at KDAL as 23z. Temperatures
will slowly fall throughout the night and should reach freezing
around 03z at KAFW, 08-09z at KDFW and around 10z at KDAL. Weak
lift over the shallow cold airmass should result in redevelopment
of some drizzle overnight, which would become freezing drizzle on
elevated surfaces as temperatures fall below freezing. Thus have
included -FZDZ starting at 08z and continuing through 14z.
Ceilings should improve to MVFR in the Metroplex around 15z and to
VFR after 01z Monday. Northerly winds around 10 knots will
prevail through the overnight hours and speeds will increase to 12
to 14 knots mid to late Sunday morning with some gusts over 20
knots are likely late Sunday morning through the afternoon hours.
At Waco, ceilings should remain IFR through 13z Sunday and through
not mentioned in the TAF, some brief LIFR conditions are possible
in the fog and drizzle. Ceilings are expected to remain IFR
through early Sunday afternoon with an improvement to MVFR by 20z.
North winds around 10 knots will prevail overnight and increase
to 12 to 15 knots late morning into the afternoon with some gusts
to over 20 knots possible.
58
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 329 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017/
The first surge of arctic air was already through the northwest
half of North Texas this afternoon with the cold front near a
line from Comanche to Dallas to Paris at 3 PM. The front will
continue to move southward through the evening and clear the
entire CWA by mid evening. Although drier air continues to work
in from the north, some patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle will still
be possible through the evening as per NAM solution (which has
done fairly well thus far). We have decided to issue a Winter
Weather advisory for freezing drizzle beginning at 4 PM along and
north of a line from Comanche to Weatherford to Denton to Paris to
account for the possibility of light icing, mainly on elevated
surfaces. We still expect precipitation to be very light and not
measurable, but any precipitation with temperatures below 32
degrees could cause some travel problems. We have decided to
leave the immediate DFW Metroplex out of the advisory for now
since freezing temperatures will be a bit slower to arrive, but
the next shift may need to adjust/expand the Advisory if the
drizzle lingers/redevelops after temperatures reach freezing. The
most likely window of time for freezing drizzle to impact the
northwest half of North Texas, including the Metroplex, will be
during the overnight/predawn hours.
The remainder of North Texas will continue to see cloudy skies,
patchy drizzle/fog and falling temperatures through the night,
but most locations south of a line from Goldthwaite to Hillsboro
to Canton should remain above freezing through sunrise Sunday.
79
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 329 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017/
/Sunday through Saturday/
Patchy freezing drizzle and fog/freezing fog will be ongoing
across the northwest half of the forecast area to start the last
day of 2017. Therefore, we will continue the Winter Weather
Advisory for freezing drizzle through the morning Sunday.
Temperatures across the advisory area will be generally
in the middle and upper 20s at sunrise with 30s elsewhere. The
zone for droplet growth will be confined to the lowest 4000 ft of
the atmosphere so we are confident that the primary precipitation
type will be drizzle/freezing drizzle with mainly trace amounts
expected. There is a slight chance that some very light snow/snow
grains may develop across the northern zones after sunrise as the
arctic air deepens with the arrival of a second arctic intrusion.
However, this second surge of arctic air will be much drier and
should shut precipitation down quickly behind it. By Sunday
afternoon, most precipitation will have moved into Central Texas
where temperatures will be hovering near or just above freezing.
Temperatures on Sunday will be cold and remain steady or fall
through the day with most locations well below freezing by
sunset. The good news is that all precipitation will exit the
CWA by early evening and clouds will partially clear. This will
set the stage for a very cold start to 2018 with temperatures at
midnight generally in the teens and 20s. Wind chills will be in
the single digits Sunday night/Monday morning and will be close
to Wind Chill Advisory criteria in many locations.
The low level moisture will finally get purged out across the
region by Monday and the sun will return, but some higher clouds
will move in through the day which will keep warming to a minimum.
Daytime highs Monday will be below freezing with the exception of
the far southern zones where temperatures will briefly creep into
the middle 30s.
The medium range models do continue to indicate some shortwave
energy moving across Southwest Texas on Monday with light
precipitation accompanying it. The last few model runs have kept
all precip south of the CWA (most likely due to how dry it will be
in the low levels of the atmosphere), so will not include any
PoPs at this time.
Once the sun sets Monday night, temperatures will plummet and
reach the teens in most spots by Tuesday morning. The only good
news is that wind speeds will be relatively light so wind chills
won't be much colder than the actual temperatures.
The remainder of the week will see a slight warmup with
temperatures finally warming above freezing by Wednesday
afternoon. However, another cold front will move across the region
Wednesday night and Thursday and lower temperatures once again. A
more significant warmup will occur on the weekend as an upper
ridge attempts to build in from the west and southerly winds
return.
79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 29 30 16 27 18 / 20 20 0 0 0
Waco 33 37 20 30 18 / 10 20 10 5 5
Paris 30 32 15 26 15 / 20 20 0 0 0
Denton 24 29 13 26 14 / 20 20 0 0 0
McKinney 27 30 14 26 15 / 20 20 0 0 0
Dallas 30 30 17 28 18 / 20 20 0 0 0
Terrell 31 35 17 29 17 / 20 20 5 0 0
Corsicana 34 36 20 31 18 / 10 20 10 5 5
Temple 33 39 21 30 18 / 10 20 10 10 5
Mineral Wells 26 29 12 26 13 / 20 20 0 5 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for TXZ091>095-
100>104-115>117-129.
&&
58/24
Special weather statement, Dec 30, 5:10 PM CST, 1 hour 50 minutes before
Special Weather Statement...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
510 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017
TXZ105>107-118>123-130>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-310915-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Tarrant-Dallas-Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-
Rains-Erath-Hood-Somervell-Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-
Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-
Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-Leon-Milam-Robertson-
Including the cities of Greenville, Commerce, Cooper,
Sulphur Springs, Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas, Rockwall, Heath,
Terrell, Kaufman, Forney, Canton, Grand Saline, Wills Point, Van,
Edgewood, Emory, East Tawakoni, Point, Stephenville, Dublin,
Granbury, Oak Trail Shores, Glen Rose, Cleburne, Burleson,
Waxahachie, Ennis, Midlothian, Athens, Gun Barrel City, Comanche,
De Leon, Goldthwaite, Hamilton, Hico, Clifton, Meridian,
Valley Mills, Hillsboro, Corsicana, Teague, Fairfield, Wortham,
Palestine, Lampasas, Copperas Cove, Gatesville, Killeen, Temple,
Fort Hood, Waco, Marlin, Mexia, Groesbeck, Buffalo, Centerville,
Jewett, Normangee, Oakwood, Cameron, Rockdale, Hearne, Franklin,
and Calvert
510 PM CST Sat Dec 30 2017
...Freezing precipitation and minor icing possible tonight and
into Sunday for parts of North and Central TX. Low wind chills
are also anticipated late Sunday into Monday Morning for much of
the area...
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED...While all of North and Central Texas may
see light freezing drizzle, the greatest risk of light ice
accumulations will occur along and northwest of a Comanche to
Denton to Paris line.
* TIMING....Beginning as early as 10 PM Saturday evening...light
icing due to freezing drizzle may occur near and northwest of an
Eastland to Denton to Paris line. The threat area for light
icing due to freezing drizzle could expand southward towards a
Comanche to DFW to Sulphur Springs during the overnight hours.
After sunrise and into the day on Sunday, there will remain a
risk for very light icing as far south as a Killeen to Waco to
Athens line. All wintry precipitation will end from north to
south starting around midday Sunday across the north and by
Sunday evening over the south.
* ACCUMULATIONS...Light icing of a trace to a couple hundredths of
an inch are possible...especially near and northwest of an
Eastland to Denton to Paris line.
* IMPACTS...Light icing on elevated surfaces, such as bridges,
overpasses and some surface streets may lead to hazardous
travel...especially north and west of the D/FW Metroplex.
* COLD TEMPERATURES...Wind chills Sunday evening will drop into
the teens across the entire area. By Monday morning single digit
wind chills are likely and a wind chill advisory will more than
likely be required.
Prepare for the possibility of some hazardous travel in parts of
North and Central Texas late tonight through Sunday evening.
Normal travel should remain possible, however, be prepared to
practice safe winter driving techniques - especially when crossing
bridges and overpasses. In addition, individuals are encouraged
to prepare for low wind chills Sunday night into Monday and dress
in layers to avoid hypothermia or frostbite.
24-Bain