Drought in Texas, December 1 to 31, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1043 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017

.AVIATION...
01/06Z TAFs. VFR conditions expected to prevail with bkn-ovc high
clouds through period. Southerly winds will increase after
12-14Z, with gusts 20-25KT across western Oklahoma terminals.
Surface gradient relaxes ahead of weak front toward end of
forecast period so winds should weaken and back after 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 846 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated hourly temperature, dew point, and wind forecast through
15Z.

DISCUSSION...
Hourly temperatures, dew points, and winds were updated based on
current observation trends and short-term models. Otherwise, no
significant changes were to the forecast.

A seasonably cool night is expected with low temperatures ranging
from the mid 30Fs to low 40Fs. High clouds are expected to
continue to increase from the west.

Mahale

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 535 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017/

AVIATION...
01/00Z TAFs. VFR conditions expected to prevail with continued
increase in high level cloud cover. Winds will be light through
12Z, generally from the east/southeast despite an initial light
northeast component. Southerly winds will increase after 12-14Z,
with gusts 20-25KT across western Oklahoma terminals.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Gradual warm up through the weekend preceding the arrival of a cold
front Monday evening is the main forecast focus.

Fairly pleasant weather over the next few days, with weak ridging
maintaining itself over the southern plains into Sunday. Mid to high
stratus will develop on Friday through the weekend as a weak surface
trough lingers, paired with a modest increase in low level moisture
through the day and overnight.

Warm air advection and return flow will increase Saturday through
Sunday, with dew points well back in the 50s through Sunday
afternoon across much of Oklahoma. To the west, a 500mb short wave
will continue to approach West Texas, traversing the Llano Estacado
through Sunday morning. Expect cloud cover to increase Sunday night
into early Monday across south and southeastern Oklahoma in response
to increasing isentropic ascent ahead of the approaching short wave
trough. Long range guidance is in okay agreement, but timing
discrepancies remain, so decided to keep broad windows of
precipitation chances for south central and southeastern Oklahoma,
starting Monday morning and ending Tuesday Night, as long range
guidance continues to struggle with the timing of the frontal
passage.

In regards to the frontal passage. Uncertainty in it's arrival
time will continue to result in uncertainty in temperatures,
especially Monday night into Tuesday. The long range blends have
washed out any definitive signal, so leaned more toward a slower
arrival given the last few runs of the various flavors of extended
guidance and given both the GFS and ECMWF's trend for a rather
elongated 500mb trough axis, well into the four corners region. I
will conceded, the latest ECMWF is faster, by about 6 to 12 hours,
with the wind shift, but this is because the ECMWF is ejecting the
northern plains short a touch farther south and a bit slower than
the GFS. Either way, post front, we'll have a feeling of "almost
winter," well, by Oklahoma standards, with highs generally in the
40s and lows in the 30s into Thursday.

Kurtz

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  38  61  47  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK         39  62  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  40  65  50  72 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK           37  63  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     36  60  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK         41  63  49  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

10/11/11

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
1131 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2017

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-011230-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
1131 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
There is a chance of thunderstorms across portions of southern
Oklahoma and western north Texas Monday. The storms are not
expected to be severe.

.Fire Weather...
Breezy north winds and dry conditions will elevate fire weather
concerns across southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas
Tuesday.

Get graphics and more details at weather.gov/norman...and follow
our weather forecast office on Twitter and Facebook.

Kurtz