Drought in Oklahoma, December 1 to 31, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1112 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
High pressure will begin to shift east on Friday with light
southerly winds developing during the day. High level clouds
will persist through at least Friday morning in association with
upper jet streak. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through
the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 933 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Quiet night with surface high pressure building into the area
from the north. A few normally colder locations near forecast lows
at this time, however considerable high clouds should limit
radiational cooling somewhat. Some minor changes made to forecast
lows.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 354 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017/

DISCUSSION...
A warming trend will take place over the next few days, with
temperatures climbing to unseasonably warm levels this weekend
into Monday ahead of the next cold front that will sweep across
the area late Monday and Monday evening. Considerable high level
cloudiness may temper afternoon temperatures a bit the next few
days, while also helping to hold up overnight lows slightly.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will accompany the cold front
Monday afternoon and evening, with the greatest chances in the
eastern and southern part of the forecast area.

Much colder weather will follow the passage of the cold front,
with near or below normal temperatures expected for much of next
week. A large upper trough will become established just to our
east, with several reinforcing shots of cold air as the week
progresses. The models have shown little run-to-run consistency on
the longitude of the mean trough position, so it is still
unclear whether we will be much below normal or slightly below
normal on temperatures later next week into the following weekend.
Regardless, it will definitely be a change from the mild weather
we have experienced for most of the past three weeks.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

AVIATION.....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
455 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011145-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
455 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2017

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
No hazardous weather is expected through tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY through SUNDAY...No Hazards.
MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
TUESDAY through WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A warming trend with lower relative humidity values will occur
through the weekend with at least a limited fire danger threat,
especially in areas south of Interstate 40 which saw little to no
rainfall earlier this week. Increasing south winds Sunday into
Monday ahead of a strong cold front will continue to support at
least a limited fire danger, though humidity will continue to
increase. Thunderstorm chances will increase with the frontal
passage late Monday, followed by gusty north winds and cooler
temperatures.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.