What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 4:04 PM EST, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 7, 4:04 PM EST, 2 hours 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
504 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will remain north of the area tonight as low pressure
moves from Tennessee to Virginia. The low pressure will move off
the New England Coast and pull the front back south over the forecast
area as a cold front tomorrow. The front is expected to stall
again across our region and remain through the end of the week,
with deep moisture and periods of heavy rain likely.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 500 PM EDT Monday: Sct/num showers and thunderstorms
will continue to sweep northward across northeast GA and the
western Carolinas through the evening, with thunder becoming less
likely into/through the overnight hours. Pop will remain elevated
regionwide as a result, with the highest pops remaining across the
high terrain where likely/cat levels are favored, tapering to high
chance to low likely levels southeastward across the Piedmont.
As for threats, a few of these stronger cells could produce
gusty winds this afternoon, however the primary threat will be
for localized heavy rainfall given training and Pwats in excess
of 2 inches.
As of 230 PM: Muggy, unsettled weather conditions expected thru the
Near Term, as a cold front approaches from the north. A positively
tilted upper trough will dig over the Ohio Valley tonight, while
a sfc low pressure wave tracks across the Central Appalachians.
Forecast soundings show very moist air mass in place, with low LFC
heights and high freezing levels. Bulk shear is weakening and upper
forcing with the upper trough doesn't look strong enough to make for
real robust updrafts, as SBCAPE is only around 1500 J/kg. Where CAPE
is a little higher over the Midlands and Low Country, there are a
few strong storms. So I think severe threat is fairly low. The main
threat tonight into Tuesday will be locally heavy rain. But even
with this, I don't think things should get too out of hand. Will
continue to mention heavy rain in the HWO, given the very moist
air mass, and possibly some training convection. The highest QPF
is expected to be in the western NC mountains, where WSW upslope
flow helps enhance amounts of 1-2". The rest of the area should
see generally 0.5 to 0.75" amounts.
Overnight, convection should generally wane, but guidance does show
additional precip moving into the mountains from the west. This
activity should be fairly light, but embedded heavy downpours will
be possible. Temps will be slightly above normal under plenty of
cloud cover.
Tuesday, the overnight band of precip should continue to weaken as
it enters the piedmont early in the morning. At the surface, the
cold front should push in from the north and is expected to reach
the southern edge of the CWA by late morning. The NC mountains may
clear out enough for showers and storms to develop by early AFTN,
while the piedmont will take longer to see much clear behind the
front. Temps will be well below normal across the area under cloud
cover, closer to normal in the mountains with some clearing. Deep
convection, mainly showers and garden-variety tstms will be mainly
confined to the Blue Ridge. A small heavy rain threat will continue
due to the very moist air mass still in place.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 2:30 PM EDT Monday: A post frontal trough, or secondary wind
shift line, will ease through our forecast area Tuesday evening. We
will be taking POPS down to slight chance, or lower by morning.
It appears the model suite is allowing a surface high to extend from
Illinois to Pennsylvania, and south into the Carolina's for mid
week. It almost has a mini wedge configuration. Low level moisture
should be abundant nevertheless, and we will start the diurnal
cycle for POPS, perhaps slightly abvoe average.
We start with a minimum in POPS Wednesday evening, but the upper
level flow starts to back and allow a return of moisture. Also a
wave train of vort maxes are embedded in the flow. The POPS for
Wednesday night still remain in the chance category, but edge up.
A bit more sharpening of upper level features Thursday should signal
an uptick in POP configuration, as a result we have brought values
up accordingly.
Overall through this portion of the forecast cycle, it appears to be
a lull in the amount and coverage of precipitation, considering the
constuction of the entire forecast package. However, we still have
to be on guard for heavy rain potential, although at least in this
part of the forecast cycle it appears to have eased somewhat.
As far as any severe potential, pulse type storms certainly look
possible Wednesday. Thursday we will probably begin having the
influence of some larger synoptic forcing.
Temperatures for this part of the forecast should remain be average,
which remains in line with the previous forecast and new data.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM EDT Monday: the extended fcst picks up at 00z on
Friday with a very broad, low amplitude upper trof centered over
Eastern Canada and upper ridging persisting over the Western CONUS
and well to our east over the sub-tropical Atlantic. As we move
into the weekend, a more amplified upper trof begins to dig down
over the Northern Plains and Western Great Lakes as the upper ridge
persists over the Western CONUS. The upper trof axis is still not
expected to reach our area until the very end of the period, early
next week.
At the sfc, moist SLY return flow will be in place over the region
on Friday as a low slowly moves eastward across the Great Lakes and
brings its associated weak cold front towards the fcst area on Sat.
This scenario is about 24 hours faster than model runs this time
yesterday with the ECMWF being more progressive with the front than
the GFS. Beyond this point, the pattern evolution becomes more ambiguous
with the ECMWF trying to develop a secondary low in the wake of the
fropa late Sunday into early Monday and then quickly move that low
up the New England Coast. The GFS also tries to develop some sort of
weak system during this time frame, but it's not as coherent as the
ECMWF. Regardless, both models keep deeper moisture over the fcst
area thru the end of the period. As for the sensible fcst, precip
chances will remain elevated thru the period with high-end chance
to low-end likely PoPs each day and broken to overcast cloud cover.
The potential for isolated to widespread flooding remains elevated
with precipitable water fcst values 1 to 2 standard deviations above
normal thru most of the period. With the ample cloud cover expected,
high temps should remain a few degrees below normal with low temps
right around normal.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: a very moist air mass in place will make for
a challenging set of TAFs. Showers are developing quickly, as low
stratus is scattering out across the area. Instability will be great
enough for some of these showers to develop into tstms from mid-aftn
thru the evening. Timing the best coverage is difficult, however, as
better forcing will come from the west, not in line with the best
instability. For KCLT, will time prevailing SHRA from 00-06z. Will
mention TSRA at the other sites, where instability and coverage is
expected to be greater. The overnight, a cold front will push in
from the north by daybreak Tuesday. A wind shift from SW to NE will
probably be in the 12-15z time frame at KCLT and the Upstate TAF
sites. There should be plenty of VFR-level cloud cover to limit fog
and low stratus. However, given the very moist air mass and
weakening winds near the front, there will likely be some
restrictions around. Most of the guidance actually develops more
widespread MVFR to possibly IFR CIGS just behind the front across
the piedmont after 12z (earlier at KAVL and KHKY). Guidance also
depicts another round of showers entering the mountains after about
06z, then entering the piedmont after 12z.
Outlook: Unsettled conditions continue through most of the week
as a frontal boundary remains nearby, moisture pools, and a series
of upper level waves pass overhead. Restrictions will be possible
with any showers and thunderstorms. Fog and low clouds may develop
each morning around daybreak, mainly in the mtn valleys but also
in areas that receive heavy rainfall the day before.
Confidence Table...
21-03z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT High 85% Low 56% Low 56% Med 68%
KGSP High 100% High 100% Med 71% Med 68%
KAVL High 96% High 92% Low 48% Med 76%
KHKY High 100% Med 71% Low 57% Med 62%
KGMU High 98% High 100% High 95% Med 70%
KAND High 100% High 100% Low 59% Med 67%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/CDG
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARKHazardous weather outlook, Aug 7, 3:58 PM EST, 2 hours 25 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
458 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-081100-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
458 PM EDT Mon Aug 7 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will periodically
move across the area tonight. The potential exists for these storms
to produce torrential rainfall. Some areas may experience multiple
rounds of such storms, resulting in locally significant accumulation
and possibly flash flooding.
In addition, a few of the storms could become severe with damaging
downburst winds the main threat. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be
noted as well. Move to a place of safety if storms approach.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
..Tuesday...Heavy rain possible. Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected again. This will keep the threat for heavy rainfall in
place across the area.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, or flash flooding to our office.
Sturey
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 7, 5:19 PM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
619 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017
NCZ056-068-502-504-508-072245-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Greater Burke NC-
Greater Caldwell NC-Catawba NC-
619 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA...
NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...NORTH CENTRAL
CLEVELAND AND SOUTHEASTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...
At 618 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Morganton, or near South Mountains State Park, moving
east at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Morganton, Hickory, Longview, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Valdese,
Icard, Drexel, Hildebran and Connelly Springs.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas. Locally
heavy rainfall amounts of one inch or better will lead to ponding of
low lying areas as well.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3587 8140 3561 8128 3557 8151 3557 8153
3556 8153 3552 8175 3569 8182
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 250DEG 26KT 3564 8171
HGSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 5:25 PM EST, 58 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
625 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017
NCZ068-508-SCZ007-008-072300-
Greater Rutherford NC-Cleveland NC-Cherokee SC-Spartanburg SC-
625 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT RUTHERFORD...SOUTHWESTERN
CLEVELAND...NORTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG AND NORTHWESTERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...
At 624 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Rutherfordton to 10 miles south of Forest
City to 7 miles north of Spartanburg, and moving northeast at 30 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Forest City, Rutherfordton, Shelby, Spindale, Boiling Springs NC,
Mayo, Chesnee, Polkville, Ellenboro and Lattimore.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates of 1 to 2
inches per hour will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3535 8157 3518 8151 3502 8192 3516 8193
3522 8197 3525 8196 3529 8201 3538 8207
3556 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 242DEG 27KT 3534 8199 3518 8189 3505 8189
HGSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 5:46 PM EST, 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
646 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017
NCZ068-SCZ008-009-013-014-072315-
Cleveland NC-York SC-Cherokee SC-Union SC-Chester SC-
646 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CLEVELAND...
NORTHWESTERN CHESTER...WESTERN YORK...CHEROKEE AND NORTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...
At 645 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles west of Gaffney to 15 miles east of
Spartanburg to 3 miles northwest of Union, and moving northeast at 30
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Gaffney, Union, Kings Mountain, Blacksburg, Jonesville, Grover,
Patterson Springs, Lockhart, Sharon and Hickory Grove.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3488 8172 3490 8173 3491 8171 3493 8174
3509 8179 3532 8137 3520 8132 3517 8133
3516 8131 3508 8128 3479 8138 3471 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2245Z 240DEG 26KT 3509 8174 3492 8166 3476 8167
HGLocal storm report, Aug 7, 5:47 PM EST, 36 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
647 PM EDT MON AUG 07 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0525 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 WSW TRAVELERS REST 34.96N 82.46W
08/07/2017 GREENVILLE SC LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREE DOWN AT INTERSECTION OF FOOT HILLS ROAD AND
MCELHANEY ROAD.
&&
OUTLAWSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 5:48 PM EST, 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
648 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017
NCZ035-036-056-072315-
Iredell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
648 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CATAWBA...SOUTHERN
ALEXANDER AND WEST CENTRAL IREDELL COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...
At 647 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hickory, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, Newton, Taylorsville, Statesville, St. Stephens, Conover,
Longview, Bethlehem, Stony Point and Claremont.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
&&
LAT...LON 3598 8105 3574 8089 3561 8131 3573 8139
3576 8137 3577 8135 3578 8136 3579 8135
3580 8133 3582 8134
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 241DEG 24KT 3573 8130
HGSpecial weather statement, Aug 7, 6:00 PM EST, 23 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
700 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017
NCZ056-068>070-072330-
Gaston NC-Cleveland NC-Lincoln NC-Catawba NC-
700 PM EDT MON AUG 7 2017
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CATAWBA...LINCOLN...
CENTRAL CLEVELAND AND NORTHWESTERN GASTON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM
EDT...
At 659 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 15 miles east of Forest City to near Shelby to 12
miles northeast of Gaffney, and moving northeast at 40 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Shelby, Lincolnton, Gastonia, Kings Mountain, Cherryville, Bessemer
City, Dallas, Maiden, Ranlo and Belwood.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.
&&
LAT...LON 3554 8112 3528 8111 3519 8152 3527 8156
3541 8170 3546 8170 3556 8156 3557 8154
3559 8152 3569 8138
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 240DEG 34KT 3542 8162 3530 8150 3519 8149
HG