The Willow Fire was first reported on 07/06/17. As of the last report on 07/10/17, the fire was at 346 acres and was 80 percent contained.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
The Willow Fire was first reported on 07/06/17. As of the last report on 07/10/17, the fire was at 346 acres and was 80 percent contained. 500,000 dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 7:48 AM PST, 4 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
848 AM PDT Thu Jul 6 2017
.DISCUSSION...No updates planned this morning. Summer is in full
swing and we're not expecting much change in the weather today
when compared to yesterday. Winds will be slightly calmer, but
conditions will still be hot and dry lending to fire weather
concerns. Red Flag Warnings are in place for where winds and low
humidities will create critical fire weather conditions, see
PDXRFWMFR for more details on this.
Outside of fire weather concerns, the typical summer coastal
stratus is in place along the coast and has pushed into the Umpqua
Basin as far as Roseburg. Current satellite imagery is already
showing the stratus beginning to burn off at the edges, so am
expecting the stratus to retreat back to the immediate coast
within the next few hours. Some short term guidance is suggesting
a few hours of clearing at the coast. If this does happen, it will
be short lived and expect stratus to return to the same locations
during the evening hours.
For the rest of the area, expect sunny skies with temperatures
around 10 degrees above normal. There may be some cumulus buildups
later this afternoon along and east of the Cascades, but the
airmass is too stable for these buildups to develop into
thunderstorms.
For more details on the overall weather pattern expected beyond
today, see the previous discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...06/12Z TAF CYCLE...VFR will continue through the TAF
period over most of the area including KMFR and KLMT. Stratus with
MVFR Cigs remains along the coast and will likely lower to IFR
around sunrise. Stratus has pushed up the Umpqua River valley to
just north of KRBG. Intermittent IFR cigs are possible at KRBG
this morning but conditions should lift to VFR quickly by 16Z.
/FB
&&
.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Thursday, 6 July 2017...Areas of fog
will continue north of Cape Blanco through this morning. Light
northerly flow will increase later today and further on Friday
afternoon as the thermal trough strengthens. Winds may increase even
further Monday afternoon with gales possible south of Cape Blanco
and Small Craft Advisory conditions north of the Cape. /FB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 AM PDT Thu Jul 6 2017/
DISCUSSION...The slow evolution of the upper level pattern
during the next week will bring mainly subtle changes in our
weather. The air mass over our area will remain largely stable,
an extensive marine layer will bring mainly night and morning
clouds to the coast and portions of the Umpqua Valley, inland
temperatures will continue at around 10 degrees above normal,
and winds will be breezy during the afternoon and evening
hours...strongest east of the Cascades.
The upper level pattern is an omega block with a ridge axis along
the Rockies and a comparably amplified trough in the Gulf of
Alaska. By the weekend, the ridge is expected to retrograde
slightly while the trough nudges toward coastal Alaska. The trough
should finally extend inland early next week which will both
flatten the northern portions of the ridge and push it back to the
Rockies again. We remain vigilant for any risk of thunderstorms,
but that risk will remain minimal. A shortwave has brought
scattered clouds to the vicinity of the Warner Mountains and with
the persistent pattern a few cumulus buildups are expected each
of the next 3 afternoons/evenings east of Lakeview. Stability will
increase Sunday into Monday then a shortwave reaching the
northern California coast should bring the next batch of weak
instability Tuesday with a few to scattered cumulus buildups over
western Siskiyou County. Conditions still do not look to be
favorable enough to warrant including any mention of a risk of
thunderstorms. Uncertainty in the forecast increases beyond
Tuesday. In the day 7 to 10 period, genuine instability has a
chance of developing depending upon the track of the broad trough
offshore.
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 AM Thursday, 6 July 2017...Overnight
guidance shows this afternoon's wind is forecast to be a few mph
less than yesterday; however, RH will still be in the lower teens
across most of the east side and northern California. The
combination of wind and RH continue to generate critical fire
weather concern and we will upgrade the fire weather watch to a
red flag warning. We anticipate this warning to be the last one in
the series. Even though hot and dry conditions will continue into
the weekend, winds are expected to be less as the trough offshore
shifts away from the coast. Please see RFWMFR for more details.
Thunderstorms...the bulk of the moisture is expected to be centered
in the Sierra Nevada and also east of our area. In our area moisture
will be limited, so were not expecting any thunderstorms. Eastern
Lake County and Harney County could see more cumulus buildups but
there should not be enough vertical development to generate
thunderstorms. /FB
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening for ORZ624-625.
CA...Red Flag Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT this
evening for CAZ280-281-285.
Pacific Coastal Waters...None.
MNF/DW/FJBThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Willow Fire was first reported on 07/06/17. As of the last report on 07/10/17, the fire was at 346 acres and was 80 percent contained. 500,000 dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, July 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 702824.