An extended period of heavy rain combined with snowmelt to cause rises in the Rogue River at Agness. The river flooded on 01/11-12/2017.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
An extended period of heavy rain combined with snowmelt to cause rises in the Rogue River at Agness. The river flooded on 01/11-12/2017.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 10, 2:50 PM PST, 25 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
250 PM PST Tue Jan 10 2017
.DISCUSSION...The latest visible image shows a dry slot moving
towards southwest Oregon. This has put an end to steady heavy
precipitation and we may catch a brief break in the weather for many
westside valleys early this evening. However radar returns are
showing precipitation becoming convective in nature and I still
could not rule out moderate to heavy showers along the Coast Range
into this evening. The RAP is handling this well and actually shows
precipitation decreasing in coverage area this evening and tonight
and keeps it mainly confined to the south Coast Range. Meanwhile
it's still windy along the coast south of Cape Blanco, but they have
been decreasing over the last few hours and the end time of the high
wind warning looks good, thus we'll allow that to expire.
The models are in pretty good agreement with precipitation rates
gradually decreasing tonight. The exception will be along the
Cascades where a moist onshore flow will allow showers to persist
there. Snow levels will be at their highest early this evening
(between 5000-5500 feet), then lowering later this evening and
tonight. Therefore areas along and east of the Cascades that have
seen a changeover from snow to rain will probably see a changeover
back to snow. Because of the above mentioned reasoning, have decided
to extend the end time of the winter storm warning for the Cascades
and winter storm warnings and advisories for northern Klamath
County. See WSWMFR for more details.
Right now were not expecting accumulating snow for the passes north
of Grants Pass tonight. Could not rule out occasional snow showers,
but most should be light.
An upper low will move overhead on Wednesday with scattered showers
and snow levels near 2500 feet. However most showers should be
light, thus limiting the impact on the roads. -Petrucelli
.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...The upper trough
responsible for all the unsettled weather earlier this week will
finally push south of the area on Thursday allowing drier air
to move in from the north. This will give SW Oregon and northern
California a much-needed break from the onslaught of
precipitation. Any snow showers/flurries around Thursday morning
across the south and east should end by midday yielding to at least
partial sunshine for most of the area. However, with colder air
moving in, any remaining snow/slush/moisture left on roads will
re-freeze, so beware of black ice Thursday morning. Overall, expect
highs Thursday to be about 10 degrees below normal with the highest
anomalies east of the Cascades. The good news is that water levels
on area streams, creeks and rivers should also continue to recede.
With high pressure in control, Thursday night will be frigid east
of the Cascades and cold over the west side. Lows will be 5 degrees
below to 5 degrees above zero over the east side with 20s in the
valleys west of the Cascades. Frost/freeze headlines are likely
again along the coast. Some low clouds and freezing fog are also
possible in the valleys, especially the west side late Thursday night
and into Friday morning.
Models have come into line with respect to a weak upper trough
crossing the region Friday night into Saturday morning. It appears
there won't be enough moisture associated with this system to
produce much more than some cloud-cover during this period, so we
have continued the dry forecast and removed all mention of
precipitation. Fog and low clouds will still likely be an issue for
the west side valleys.
Saturday night to Monday next week, models are showing short wave
disturbances moving mostly to our north with a ridge axis extending
from California to the Great Basin and the northern Rockies. This
will bring a chance of rain to the coast and Umpqua at times, but no
big storms are expected (yet). However, this will change next week
and the door will open for a strong Pacific jet to extend all the way
to the West Coast beginning next Tuesday. A lot can change between
now and then, but this scenario may lead to our next atmospheric
river event with a return of wet, windy weather, higher snow levels
and a renewed threat of flooding. -Spilde
&&
.AVIATION...0/18Z TAF CYCLE...From the Cascades west...Widespread
MVFR/IFR cigs/vis with terrain obscured today with periods of
moderate to heavy rain and snow. The heavier precipitation will
become more showery overnight into Wednesday, but the lower
conditions will persist. Snow levels up near 5000 feet through this
evening will lower down to 2000 feet by Wednesday morning.
East of the Cascades....Areas of MVFR cigs/vis in light to
moderate snow with mountains obscured. Snow will change to rain
below 5000 feet this afternoon. South winds will increase in the
afternoon and KLMT could see wind gusts to near 30 knots. -Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 209 PM PST Tuesday 10 January 2017...Strong low
pressure is moving into the waters this afternoon and will make
landfall near Cape Blanco late this evening. South gales will
continue to the south of the low with shifting but less intense
winds to the north of the low. Just behind this low is what we call
the bent-back occlusion, which is sometimes associated with a brief
burst of strong winds. Strong winds do not always occur with bent-
back occlusions, but this feature will track across the northern
waters just behind the surface low, so we'll keep a close eye on
that. Even though gales are currently confined to the southern
waters, mariners should not let down their guard over the northern
waters this evening. Seas will remain hazardous from a combination
of wind waves and swell through this evening, and then into
Wednesday mostly from short period fresh swell.
Seas will diminish tomorrow night, then we'll enter of a period of
relatively calmer weather with lighter north winds and subdued seas
from Thursday into the weekend. -Wright
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for
ORZ029>031.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ029>031.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday ABOVE 3000 FEET
for for ORZ025-027-028.
High Wind Warning until 3 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ022.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for ORZ026.
CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for
CAZ084-085.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ084-085.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening ABOVE 4000
FEET for for CAZ082-083.
High Wind Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ081.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ081.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Gale Warning until 8 PM PST this evening for PZZ356-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 10 PM PST Wednesday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
927 AM PST TUE JAN 10 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0927 AM SNOW SELMA 42.28N 123.62W
01/10/2017 M1.0 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
.
&&
CZSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
930 AM PST TUE JAN 10 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM SNOW SILVER LAKE 43.13N 121.05W
01/10/2017 U3.0 INCH LAKE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
18 INCHES OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. THE
DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT WAS 24 HOURS.
&&
CCPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1248 PM PST TUE JAN 10 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1244 PM HEAVY RAIN 2 SSW OBRIEN 42.05N 123.71W
01/10/2017 M2.00 INCH JOSEPHINE OR TRAINED SPOTTER
. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS
12 HOURS.
&&
CZSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
116 PM PST TUE JAN 10 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNW HARBOR 42.05N 124.26W
01/10/2017 M2.30 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS
28 HOURS.
&&
CZSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
133 PM PST TUE JAN 10 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0132 PM FLOOD 3 WSW WHITE CITY 42.42N 122.88W
01/10/2017 JACKSON OR PUBLIC
STREET COVERED WITH WATER.
&&
CZSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
228 PM PST TUE JAN 10 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0100 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 NNE LANGLOIS 42.94N 124.45W
01/10/2017 M1.24 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
. THE DURATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT WAS 2
HOURS.
&&
CZSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Rogue River at Agness rose above flood stage (17.0 feet) at 10/1515 PST. The river crested at 21.88 feet between 11/0115 and 11/0130 PST. The river fell below flood stage at 11/1845 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 666057.