Hail and Damaging Wind in North Dakota, July 4, 2017

Name: Hail and Damaging Wind in North Dakota, July 4, 2017
Start: 2017-07-04T16:39
End: 2017-07-04T17:43
Location: North Dakota

July 4, 2017 · NWS BIS · 4 events in 1 county or zone

A weak warm front lifted through the area and interacted with strong instability over south central North Dakota. Isolated severe weather developed, with reported hail up to one inch in diameter and thunderstorm wind gusts up to 58 mph.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BIS wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 1:39 PM CST, 3 hours earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 4, 1:39 PM CST, 3 hours before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
239 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Hot weather will continue through Wednesday, along with a chance
of thunderstorms.

Scattered, surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop in
the 20 to 23 UTC time frame from Hettinger northeastward toward
the Bismarck/Mandan area. That area is favored for initiation on
the nose of the low-level thermal ridge, immediately ahead a pre-
frontal wind shift, and in advance of the weak mid-level impulse
implied by the area of enhanced cloudiness moving from southeast
MT into southwest ND as of 19 UTC. Pre-convective MLCAPE ranges
from 1000 J/kg at Hettinger, to 2000 J/kg at Bismarck, and 3000
J/kg at Jamestown. The degree of bouyancy, driven in part by steep
low- and mid-level lapse rates, coupled with weak, but veering
winds aloft will be sufficient for a few marginally-severe storms
with hail and gusty winds. However, overall, the risk will be kept
in check by weak deep-layer wind shear, with effective shear
magnitudes less than 25 kt. CAMs through the 17 UTC HRRR support
this scenario with maximum updraft helicity values generally less
than 50 m2/s2 as convection moving eastward, past the Missouri
River by 00 UTC, and exiting the James River valley by 06 UTC.

The weak cold front moving southward this afternoon is expected to
stall along the ND/SD border tonight, then return northeastward as
a warm front Wednesday afternoon. A strong thermal ridge will once
again flex its muscles eastward into western ND behind that front
with 850 mb temperatures of 26 to 28 C from Williston to Bismarck
and values around 30 C in southwest ND. Forecast soundings show an
impressively-deep well-mixed layer to almost 600 mb, all of which
supports highs around 100 F in western and south central ND. Note
that record highs are closer to 110 for July 5th, and thus should
be safe given currently-forecast thermal fields. The 12 UTC NAM
appears reasonable with its low-level dewpoint forecasts east of
the north-south oriented warm front given observed trends both
ahead of and behind that boundary today. Thus, we expect surface
dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s F in central ND Wednesday
afternoon and evening in support of weakly-capped MLCAPE upwards
of 3000 J/kg. Models unanimously agree on significantly-stronger
winds aloft by then with 0-6-km wind shear around 45 kt along with
notable anvil-level flow. Forecast soundings from the 12 UTC NAM
are therefore strong matches to environments which have produced
significant hailstones over 2 inches in diameter. That being said,
this threat is conditional on convective initiation, which is not
a sure bet given weak mid-level height rises at 500 mb during peak
heating. We do, however, believe that high-based, initially-weak
convection could emanate from the intensely-heated air mass in
western ND by late afternoon, then intensify as it crosses the
warm frontal zone in central ND. Moreover, glancing influence from
a weak impulse crossing southern Canada could also aide convective
initiation in north central ND by Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

Above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation will be
the theme through the long term forecast period. Amplification of
the strong 500 mb ridge centered over the western U.S. late this
week will allow somewhat cooler northwest trajectories to develop
over our region, resulting in highs mainly in the 80s F Thursday
and Friday. However, global ensemble guidance continues to show
the ridge shifting back eastward beginning this weekend with yet
another period of potential 100 degree weather in the offing by
the early to middle part of next week, especially if the 00 and 12
UTC ECMWF runs have anything to say about it. It's worth noting
that the vast majority of recent deterministic GFS cycles have
been on the far cold edge of 850 mb temperatures from its ensemble
and so its numbers may be negatively-influencing blended forecast
guidance. Finally, CIPS analog guidance also suggests a generally
dry period, as expected with only weak shortwave troughs rounding
the 500 mb ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

A cold front will continue to advance towards KBIS by 00z Weds, and
then into KJMS by 06z Weds. A line of showers and thunderstorms will
develop ahead of the front, thus a tempo tsra has been added for
KBIS between 21z and 00z, possibly earlier and will continue to
monitor and amend as necessary. The thunderstorms look to move
into KJMS between 01z and 04z. Gusty winds to 45kt and small hail
possible with these storms. Elsewhere, vfr conditions with
northwest to northerly winds behind the front.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CJS
LONG TERM...CJS
AVIATION...KS

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 4, 2:05 PM CST, 2 hours 34 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
305 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017

NDZ020-022-023-025-034>037-041-042-044>048-050-051-052015-
Oliver-Sheridan-Wells-Foster-Morton-Burleigh-Kidder-Stutsman-
Hettinger-Grant-Adams-Sioux-Emmons-Logan-La Moure-McIntosh-Dickey-
305 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 /205 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
North Dakota, southeast North Dakota, and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will move out of far southwest and across
south central North Dakota this afternoon, and east into the James
River valley this evening. A few of the storms could be strong to
severe with hail up to the size of quarters and wind gusts as
high as 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Still hot for Wednesday. A chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday evening in central North Dakota. If any
storms develop, they could become severe with large hail and
damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters could be needed in a few locations this
afternoon and evening.

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021-031>033-040-043-052015-
Divide-Burke-Renville-Bottineau-Rolette-Williams-Mountrail-Ward-
McHenry-Pierce-McKenzie-Dunn-Mercer-McLean-Golden Valley-Billings-
Stark-Slope-Bowman-
305 PM CDT Tue Jul 4 2017 /205 PM MDT Tue Jul 4 2017/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
North Dakota, northwest North Dakota, south central North Dakota,
and southwest North Dakota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Still hot for Wednesday. A chance of thunderstorms late Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday evening, mainly in central North Dakota.
If any storms develop, they could become severe with large hail
and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

CJS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 1:49 PM CST, 2 hours 50 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
149 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDZ044-045-042030-
Sioux ND-Adams ND-
149 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM MDT...

At 149 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
White Butte, or 9 miles west of Lemmon, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Adams
County.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4595 10245 4605 10246 4610 10200 4605 10200
      4605 10196 4606 10194 4595 10193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 268DEG 15KT 4597 10235

SIMOSKO

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 2:35 PM CST, 2 hours 4 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
235 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDZ042-044-045-042115-
Grant ND-Sioux ND-Adams ND-
235 PM MDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN SIOUX...
SOUTHWESTERN GRANT AND SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
MDT...

At 234 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 5 miles northeast of
North Lemmon, or 6 miles northeast of Lemmon, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Morristown.
Rural areas of far western Sioux and southwest Grant counties.

 This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4595 10222 4606 10225 4622 10173 4594 10167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2034Z 252DEG 22KT 4601 10208

HAMILTON

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 2:53 PM CST, 1 hour 46 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
353 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDZ034-042115-
Morton ND-
353 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southwest of St. Anthony, or 20 miles southwest of Mandan,
moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Morton
County.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4648 10122 4664 10117 4659 10085 4642 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 284DEG 14KT 4656 10109

SIMOSKO

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 3:36 PM CST, 1 hour 3 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
436 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDZ042-045-042215-
Grant ND-Sioux ND-
436 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL SIOUX AND
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT/415 PM MDT/...

At 435 PM CDT/335 PM MDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles northwest of
Shields to near Watauga. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Wind gusts to 55 mph will be possible with these storms. Heavy rain,
small hail and frequent lightning is also expected.

Locations impacted include...
Selfridge, Shields, Raleigh, St. Gertrude and Porcupine.

Seek shelter inside a building or vehicle if you are in the path of
these storms.

&&

LAT...LON 4638 10152 4633 10105 4628 10105 4630 10100
      4632 10101 4631 10099 4632 10098 4629 10067
      4594 10091 4595 10166
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 292DEG 20KT 4630 10133 4596 10155

CJS

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 4:08 PM CST, 31 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
508 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDZ034-042245-
Morton ND-
508 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MORTON COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 508 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles east of Flasher, or 24 miles south of Mandan, moving east at 15
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Anthony.

Seek shelter inside a building or vehicle if you are in the path of
this storm.

&&

LAT...LON 4639 10108 4651 10115 4668 10084 4641 10070
      4640 10088 4641 10088 4640 10090
TIME...MOT...LOC 2208Z 249DEG 11KT 4648 10103

CJS

Special weather statement, Jul 4, 4:24 PM CST, 15 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
524 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

NDZ035-042315-
Burleigh ND-
524 PM CDT TUE JUL 4 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL BURLEIGH COUNTY
UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 523 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles east of Lake Harmon, or 9 miles north of Mandan, moving east at
25 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts to 40 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Double Ditch Indian Village.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek shelter
inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4692 10091 4700 10090 4698 10054 4692 10048
      4688 10056
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 277DEG 21KT 4695 10082

SIMOSKO

The radar

The Bismarck radar (KBIS), 13 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:38 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Burleigh

When: July 4, 4:39 PM CST to 4:42 PM CST
Where: Burleigh County, 5.84 mi NNW of Bismarck
Measured: 0.88 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 46.880, -100.810

Hail, Burleigh

When: July 4, 4:42 PM CST to 4:45 PM CST
Where: Burleigh County, 6.5 mi NNE of Bismarck
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 46.890, -100.730

Hail, Burleigh

When: July 4, 5:10 PM CST to 5:13 PM CST
Where: Burleigh County, 4.15 mi N of Bismarck
Measured: 0.75 in hail
Reported by: COOP Observer
Coordinates: 46.860, -100.770

Thunderstorm Wind, Burleigh

When: July 4, 5:41 PM CST to 5:43 PM CST
Where: Burleigh County, 1.98 mi NE of Sterling
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) measured gust
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 46.840, -100.250

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in North Dakota in 2017 Every state in 2017 This day in weather history Warnings in North Dakota, July 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 709098, 709099, 709100, 709101.