Hail in North Carolina, September 5, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
248 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will approach from the northwest tonight and bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area through Wednesday.
Dry, cool high pressure will spread back over the region in the wake
of the front on Thursday and linger into the weekend. Moisture will
increase again early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 PM: A deep upper trough will continue to dig across the
mid-MS Valley tonight, while a cold front pushes across the OH/TN
Valleys. Plenty of pre-frontal convection has developed and will
continue to work its way into the NC mountains thru the rest of the
AFTN hours, then expand east across the Piedmont early this evening.
The 17z SPC mesoanalysis page shows sbCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg across
the CWFA, with effective shear of generally 20 kts or less. As we
head into the evening, bulk shear should increase slightly, making
for at least a marginal risk of quasi-organized storms producing
isolated damaging wind gusts. Convection is expected to wane and
shift east of the area late this evening, while another band of
mainly showers will develop right along the sfc front as it pushes
into the NC mountains. So PoPs will feature these trends thru
tonight. Temps will be near normal in the mountains and slightly
above normal east under mostly cloudy skies.

On Wednesday, the front should push thru the Piedmont during the
morning hours with ongoing showers crossing the area. By early AFTN,
guidance is in decent agreement that the front should be exiting
east of the area, with the better instability to our east. So the
severe threat looks to be east as well. Blending the CONSSHORT PoPs,
I have the hourly PoP trends actually decrease during the AFTN.
Temps will start out somewhat mild, but only rise about 10-15
degrees (resulting in below normal highs) as cool air filters in
behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Tuesday: After we eliminate lingering shower
activity over the eastern zones on Wednesday evening, we enter the
great lull for the rest of the week, until our anxiety starts to
build through the weekend as to the eventual fate of Irma over the
southeastern United States. The western Carolinas will spend most
of that time under a deep upper long wave trof that deamplifies
Thursday and Friday, but generally supports weak surface high
pressure with an air mass featuring temps around ten degrees below
normal. It should feel like early autumn owing to the dry air
mass. The main upper trof pulls out Friday night and Saturday while
pushing a weak front down from the north. Present indication is that
this boundary will be dry as it drifts into the area from the north
on Saturday. Slow modification of the air mass will allow temps
to creep upward through the weekend. It is at this point that the
forecast of features across the central and southeastern U.S. become
critical to the eventual path of Irma. Both the operational GFS
and ECMWF leave behind a piece of the old upper trof in the form
of a weak cutoff low Saturday night over MS/AL/GA, and it is this
contribution to upper troffing over the central US that erodes
the western portion of the upper ridge that has been keeping Irma
on its generally westward forecast track. Interaction with this
upper feature could turn Irma toward the north. At this point, it
appears that after any turn to the north, the storm would probably
remain far enough away to keep the outer edge of the circulation
from bringing any precip into the fcst area before sunset on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday: The abbreviated medium range forecast
picks up at 00Z Monday and focuses almost exclusively on potential
impacts from Irma. The TC location reflected in our grids reflects
the points that have been collaborated by the National Hurricane
Center and the Weather Prediction Center. The current track and
thinking do bring Irma's track very close to our CWA through day 7,
so the forecast reflects some possible impacts. Sky cover increases
Sunday night, and pops increase from southeast to northwest Monday
morning, with much of the area likely seeing rainfall by Monday
night. Tropical rainfall would likely continue through much of
Tuesday as well. It is too early to accurately assess potential
rainfall totals...and there are some factors in our favor versus
not. The storm motion is fast, which could limit the time our area
sees the tropical rainfall. On the other hand...this is a tropical
system, which have historically been able to be quite prolific rain
producers in this area, even as tropical depressions and remnant
lows. The potential for heavy rainfall is there, and we'll have to
sort out specific totals in the coming days. Current forecasts do
not portray wind as a significant issue, and the winds in the
current forecast are well below tropical storm force. From past
storms, however, we know that saturated soils mean that strong winds
are not necessary to topple a few trees. Tropical cyclone tornadoes
are a potential threat with any tropical system that makes landfall,
but the likelihood of those is too tied to small track details to
make an accurate assessment for our area at this time.

This is going to sound like a broken record, but please stay aware
of the forecast and realize that this is absolutely not set in stone
yet. Any impacts that could be realized would be at least 6 days out
at this point, and there is plenty of time for things to change and
for specific thinking on rainfall totals and tropical threats to be
refined. The track is still incredibly uncertain, and based upon the
intensity and motion of many synoptic features, including the
Bermuda high over the Atlantic Ocean and a couple of upper troughs
that move through the northern/eastern CONUS. The placement of an
upper low over the southeast next weekend continues to be vital to
the track of Irma...as unpredictable Fujiwhara interaction with that
feature will likely determine details of the final track.

Our best advice at this point is to have a plan and an emergency
preparedness kit in case of storm impacts, stay aware of the
forecast, and only turn to trusted sources of guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Convection along and ahead of an approaching
cold front should move in/expand in coverage across the NC mountains
this AFTN, and then across the piedmont late AFTN thru the evening.
Guidance is in decent agreement on the timing and on the scattered
to numerous coverage. So vcts and tempo for TSRA will be carried at
all the TAF sites. The cold front won't cross the area until late
tonight thru midday Wednesday. There is expected to be a lull in
convection overnight, then another band of mainly showers, but
perhaps with embedded TS along the actual front Wednesday morning.
So VCSH or prevailing SHRA will be carried for the second round. The
combination of evening precip and ongoing SWLY moist flow overnight
may support some stratus development. Guidance generally shows MVFR
cigs, especially across the Piedmont Wednesday morning. Winds will
be out of the SW with some low-end gusts the rest of the AFTN, then
become light this evening. The winds will then switch out of the NW
with the front during the pre-dawn hours at KAVL, and right around
daybreak or just after across the Piedmont, but should remain light.

Outlook: A cold front will exit to the east late Wednesday. In the
wake of the front, dry high pressure will return on Thursday
resulting in generally VFR conditions through Saturday.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  97%     High  94%     High  88%
KGSP       High 100%     High  99%     High  91%     High  88%
KAVL       High  98%     High  90%     Med   74%     Med   75%
KHKY       High 100%     High  95%     High  87%     Med   75%
KGMU       High 100%     High  99%     High  94%     High  94%
KAND       High 100%     High  97%     High  92%     Med   79%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1238 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-061645-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1238 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon
and tonight as a cold front moves into the area. Cloud to ground
lightning, brief heavy rain and gusty winds are the main threats.
Isolated severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, with the
possibility of brief damaging winds during the late afternoon and
evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Severe weather possible. Thunderstorms will develop
along a cold front as it moves across the area east of the mountains
during the day. A few of the storms could become severe across the
area mainly south and east of Interstate 85, with damaging wind
gusts the main threat.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510-
SCZ001>003-061645-
Rabun-Habersham-Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-
Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
1238 PM EDT Tue Sep 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon and tonight as a cold front moves into the area. Cloud to
ground lightning, brief heavy rain and gusty winds are the main
threats. Isolated severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, with the
possibility of brief damaging winds during the late afternoon and
early evening hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
401 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

NCZ033-049-050-053-501>508-052030-
Buncombe NC-Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Yancey NC-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-
Greater Caldwell NC-Eastern McDowell NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-
Avery NC-Mitchell NC-
401 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN
RUTHERFORD...SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL...NORTHERN CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
AVERY...EASTERN BUNCOMBE...SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY AND WESTERN BURKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 401 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles south of Blowing
Rock to 4 miles north of Marion to 14 miles northwest of
Rutherfordton, and moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Spruce Pine, Black Mountain, Blowing Rock In Caldwell County,
Glen Alpine, Old Fort, Linville Falls, B.R. Parkway-Craggy To Little
Switzerland, B.R. Parkway-Linville Falls To Grandfather and Lake
James State Park.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8155 3607 8140 3604 8139 3582 8172
      3540 8196 3538 8211 3541 8216 3540 8227
      3547 8227 3549 8234 3571 8241 3612 8176
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 251DEG 15KT 3601 8162 3574 8202 3546 8219

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
428 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

SCZ001-002-005-052100-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
428 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN PICKENS AND
NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 428 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Walhalla, or near Salem, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Pickens, Six Mile, Salem, Lake Keowee, Jocassee Gorges, Lake
Jocassee, Devils Fork State Park, Keowee Toxaway State Park, Table
Rock State Park and Liberty.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3498 8304 3507 8276 3505 8275 3506 8272
      3481 8266 3480 8289 3481 8289 3481 8290
      3479 8292 3479 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 259DEG 13KT 3491 8294

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
430 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

NCZ053-065-501>508-052100-
Buncombe NC-Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-
Henderson NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-
430 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN
RUTHERFORD...NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
BUNCOMBE AND WESTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 429 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 10 miles northeast of
Lenoir to 12 miles north of Columbus, and moving east at 20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lenoir, Morganton, Marion, Gamewell, Hudson, Cajah's Mountain,
Drexel, Glen Alpine, Old Fort and Cedar Rock.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3609 8145 3607 8144 3607 8141 3604 8139
      3602 8134 3599 8133 3592 8135 3538 8206
      3538 8211 3541 8216 3540 8218 3540 8225
      3539 8226 3540 8249 3612 8159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 255DEG 17KT 3604 8144 3541 8227

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
444 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

NCZ051-052-058-059-052115-
Haywood NC-Graham NC-Swain NC-Northern Jackson NC-
444 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN JACKSON...
SWAIN...GRAHAM AND NORTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 8 miles southwest of
Newport to 10 miles northwest of Bryson City to 10 miles west of
Robbinsville, and moving northeast at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Bryson City, Robbinsville, Cherokee, Town Of Santeetlah, Smoky
Mountains-Newfound Gap, Smoky Mountains-Fontana Area, Lake
Santeetlah, Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain, Fontana Lake and Smoky
Mountains-Big Creek.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8401 3541 8402 3552 8387 3553 8382
      3556 8377 3558 8360 3556 8350 3566 8335
      3566 8330 3573 8324 3572 8320 3576 8316
      3579 8308 3577 8299 3579 8296 3574 8295
      3574 8293 3533 8330 3528 8402 3529 8403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 246DEG 29KT 3585 8326 3554 8356 3533 8400

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
456 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

NCZ035-036-053-056-065-068-502-504>510-052130-
Buncombe NC-Iredell NC-Cleveland NC-Greater Burke NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Henderson NC-
Greater Caldwell NC-Polk Mountains NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
456 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHWESTERN CATAWBA...SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...NORTHERN RUTHERFORD...
NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...NORTH CENTRAL POLK...ALEXANDER...
NORTHWESTERN IREDELL...SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
BUNCOMBE...NORTHWESTERN CLEVELAND AND BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM
EDT...

At 456 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms with intense lightning along a line extending from 4
miles south of Boomer to 8 miles north of Hickory to 10 miles north
of Columbus, and moving east at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, Lenoir, Morganton, Marion, Taylorsville, Rutherfordton, St.
Stephens, Longview, Sawmills and Granite Falls.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and half
inch hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8135 3600 8133 3603 8127 3604 8120
      3603 8107 3606 8098 3605 8080 3591 8088
      3537 8194 3537 8249 3595 8163 3606 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 260DEG 29KT 3600 8126 3586 8135 3540 8225

RWH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
458 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

SCZ001-002-005-052130-
Pickens Mountains SC-Greater Pickens SC-Oconee Mountains SC-
458 PM EDT TUE SEP 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT PICKENS
AND NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 457 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 8 miles west of Pickens, or near Keowee Toxaway
State Park, moving east at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Pickens, Easley, Salem, Lake Keowee, Jocassee Gorges, Lake Jocassee,
Devils Fork State Park, Table Rock State Park, Keowee Toxaway State
Park and Pumpkintown.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 50 mph and half
inch hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3507 8257 3506 8257 3506 8260 3504 8260
      3503 8259 3501 8260 3501 8254 3500 8254
      3498 8253 3498 8255 3497 8253 3492 8252
      3491 8250 3484 8249 3481 8297 3500 8302
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 269DEG 12KT 3492 8285

RWH