What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 9:43 PM EST, 2 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 3, 9:43 PM EST, 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1043 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain centered over the western Atlantic
while a broad upper level trough persists over the eastern part
of the nation for the better part of this week. A weak cold front
will linger over the region through midweek, helping to focus the
development of showers and thunderstorms. An upper level disturbance
later in the week will initiate pattern change, leading to drier
and somewhat cooler conditions late in the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1035 PM EDT: The late evening LAPS analysis has the only
residual instability to note across the western Upstate and upper
Savannah river region, but even there profiles are starting to
stabilize quickly. Will thus ramp down thunder chances to just the
lower piedmont through about 06Z, where an isolated heavy rain
threat will also persist. Regional radar loops have better coverage
across central and western TN late this evening ahead of the
approaching upper wave, but the HRRR suggest that this will diminish
as it moves east toward the southern Appalachians overnight. Will
still keep chance PoPs in the far western mountains for a possible
pre-daybreak arrival.
Otherwise, the general pattern does not change much over the next 24
hours. The main feature of interest is the aforementioned,
better-defined shortwave currently over west-central TN that will
approach the area overnight, but with most of the energy passing by
the GSP CWA to the north late tonight through Tuesday. This feature
should still combine with moist profiles and improving diurnal
instability Tuesday afternoon to yield a good chance of
thunderstorms again for Tuesday. Storms may be a bit stronger than
today, and the hydro threat will remain for localized excessive
rainfall. Temperatures will remain warm and humid with lows a little
above normal and highs near normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday: Short wave ridging aloft will gradually develop
over the region during the short term, while weak E/W-oriented
surface boundary and lee side/thermal troughs will linger through at
least Wed. These features will provide additional focus for
development of scattered afternoon/evening showers and storms (in
addition to the usual ridge top convergence/differential heating
effects) on Wed and Thu.
By the end of Thursday, an anomalously strong short wave trough is
forecast to be moving across the TN and Ohio Valleys. Although model
solutions offer slight variations in location/timing, it would
appear that any forcing associated with this feature would most
likely impact the forecast area well after peak heating Thu night.
However, strengthening wind fields aloft will result in improving
shear profiles, which could support some low-end organization of
convective clusters, and severe weather potential slightly higher
than the run-of-the-mill early summer pulse activity. Temps are
expected to remain near to slightly above climo through the period.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 PM Monday: Low-amplitude long wave troughing will become
established across the East early in the medium range, and persist
through the period. Transitory short wave troughs passing near the
forecast area and attendant weak frontal passages are anticipated
Friday, and again in the Sunday/Monday time frame. These days are
therefore expected to see some degree of enhancement of diurnal
convective chances. In fact, timing of the initial short wave (Thu
night/early Friday) and attendant establishment of a LLJ Thu night
may allow convection to linger well beyond the typical diurnal
cycle. Otherwise, wind profiles should remain a bit stronger than
typical for the time of year, so the potential for low-end
organization of convection will persist each afternoon. Temps will
generally remain around normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT: Convection has greatly diminished late this evening and
expect little more than light showers through 04Z before the
coverage dissipates for the overnight hours. The moist ground could
yield some low clouds and fog overnight, but profiles and MOS do not
feature this. Will hint that way with FEW010 for now. Otherwise,
anticipate a repeat on Tuesday afternoon, with building daytime
instability followed by outflow and shortwave driven convection
leading to scattered thunderstorm coverage, or better, once again.
Winds will be gusty near thunderstorms and restrictions will likely
be IFR to MVFR in storms.
Elsewhere: Residual evening convection continues to wind down, with
the lingering threat mainly in the vicinity of KAND through 04Z. Any
lingering light rain should further diminish overnight. There is
some potential for overnight convection to return from the west with
the deamplifying wave moving east over TN, but confidence in any
precip at the mountain and foothills airports is too low to mention
overnight. Anticipate mountain valley fog and low cloud development
once again, and restrictions are quite possible at the foothills
sites given all the heavy rainfall. Will limit overnight foothills
IFR fog and MVFR cigs to KHKY, while KAVL should be solidly IFR (or
worse.) Anticipate light, generally south to southwest winds
returning Tuesday, with gusts possible near thunderstorms as
coverage builds once again through the afternoon hours.
Outlook: Moist and unsettled weather will continue through the week.
Nocturnal restrictions can be expected in locations receiving heavy
rainfall.
Confidence Table...
02-08Z 08-14Z 14-20Z 20-00Z
KCLT High 94% Med 61% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 81% High 100% High 100%
KAVL High 95% Low 46% Med 71% High 100%
KHKY High 88% High 91% High 95% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 95% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 98% High 97% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...HGHazardous weather outlook, Jul 3, 4:31 PM EST, 5 hours 14 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
531 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017
GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-042145-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
531 PM EDT Mon Jul 3 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Tonight.
Scattered thunderstorms and heavy rain showers will continue to
develop across the area into the evening hours. The main threats will
be from locally very heavy rainfall and cloud to ground lightning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
None.
Lane
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 3, 4:27 PM EST, 5 hours 18 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
527 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017
NCZ071-032200-
Mecklenburg NC-
527 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
MECKLENBURG COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM EDT...
At 527 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning near Uptown Charlotte, or near Central Charlotte,
moving east at 5 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Central Charlotte, South Charlotte, Southwest
Charlotte, East Charlotte, Freedom Park, The Plaza, Charlotte Douglas
Airport, The Arboretum and Hidden Valley.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3514 8096 3526 8095 3531 8075 3509 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 2127Z 267DEG 6KT 3520 8086
CDG
Special weather statement, Jul 3, 4:47 PM EST, 4 hours 58 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
547 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017
NCZ036-056-069-071-032215-
Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
547 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA...SOUTH
CENTRAL IREDELL...NORTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND NORTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG
COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...
At 546 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northwest of Huntersville, or near Westport, moving east at 5
mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Cornelius, Westport, Lake Norman, Denver, Ramsey Creek Park,
Davidson, Mooresville, Terrell, Doolie and Sherrills Ford.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.
Lake Norman is in the path of this storm. Cloud to ground lightning
and gusty winds will create dangerous boating conditions.
Move to shore immediately.
&&
LAT...LON 3547 8105 3560 8105 3562 8087 3545 8086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 268DEG 5KT 3553 8099
CDG
Special weather statement, Jul 3, 5:25 PM EST, 4 hours 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
625 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017
SCZ007-008-032300-
Cherokee SC-Spartanburg SC-
625 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT EAST
CENTRAL SPARTANBURG AND CENTRAL CHEROKEE COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...
At 624 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 7 miles southwest of Gaffney, or 4 miles north of
Pacolet Mills, moving northeast at 15 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Gaffney, Pacolet, Cowpens, Pacolet Mills and Thicketty.
In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.
Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.
&&
LAT...LON 3501 8185 3513 8167 3493 8154 3492 8164
3491 8168 3491 8171 3490 8173 3489 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 241DEG 14KT 3498 8173
CDGSpecial weather statement, Jul 3, 5:56 PM EST, 3 hours 49 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
656 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017
NCZ068-032330-
Cleveland NC-
656 PM EDT MON JUL 3 2017
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CLEVELAND COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM EDT...
At 656 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Shelby, or near Boiling Springs NC, moving
northeast at 5 mph.
Locations to be impacted include...
Boiling Springs NC, Lattimore, Mooresboro, Earl and Cliffside.
Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.
&&
LAT...LON 3534 8165 3521 8151 3517 8163 3518 8165
3518 8174 3520 8177 3526 8175
TIME...MOT...LOC 2256Z 232DEG 5KT 3522 8167
CDGLocal storm report, Jul 3, 6:05 PM EST, 3 hours 40 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
705 PM EDT MON JUL 03 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 PM FLOOD 4 NE CHARLOTTE 35.24N 80.77W
07/03/2017 MECKLENBURG NC BROADCAST MEDIA
BRIAR CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS IN THE 3200 BLOCK OF
SHAMROCK DR. STANDING WATER IN THE PARK SURROUNDING THE
METHODIST HOME RECREATION CENTER.
&&
CARROLLLocal storm report, Jul 3, 8:42 PM EST, 1 hour 3 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
942 PM EDT MON JUL 03 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0745 PM FLOOD 1 WSW DUNCAN 34.93N 82.15W
07/03/2017 SPARTANBURG SC BROADCAST MEDIA
WATER IN HOME ON CASSIE MARIE CT.
&&
CARROLL