Damaging Winds in Nevada, July 6, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
359 AM PDT Thu Jul 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Hot conditions will continue through the middle of
next week. There will also be a risk for some for thunderstorms
each afternoon.

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.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday. The models are in very good
agreement for the short term period. Hot conditions will continue.
A monsoon flow of moisture could begin as early as today and any
thunderstorms that develop will be dry through Friday. High
pressure will remain stationary centered over or just west of the
4-corners area of the country. A low pressure system will be
meandering off the canadian coastline but through Friday will
provide little energy to influence the position of the high
pressure area. Thunderstorm activity may begin to increase in
coverage today. Models are indicating the first hint of a monsoon
flow today and Friday. Precipitable water values remain below 0.6
inches for the most part so not much rain will be forthcoming
from these storms, which could be focused over the eastern half of
the CWFA today and Friday. High temperatures will range from the
90s to around 100 degrees. Low temperatures will range from the
mid 50s to the mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...Friday night through Wednesday

The long term period begins under the continued influence of the
strong western ridge. Heights peak over the weekend and the Great
Basin will likely experience the hottest temperatures of the
summer so far on Saturday, with a number of valley locations
topping 100 degrees. The limiting factor for heat products is that
minimum temperatures will still provide some relief in the mid
50s to the mid 60's during this heat spell, though people still
need to continue to practice heat safety. There will continue to
be a mix of dry and wet afternoon and evening thunderstorms over
the weekend, though more dry than wet with PW's remaining around
.50 inches.

Models are in good agreement that the ridge will start to get
edged eastward on Sunday night as troffing pushes into the Pacific
Northwest. Heights will therefore drop a bit beginning Monday,
easing temperatures back from the near record levels of the
weekend, though still above normal. This may also begin to allow
for a better monsoonal flow and PW's should begin to rise from
the south on Monday, allowing for a more widespread and wetter
thunderstorm profile in central Nevada. By Tuesday .80 inch PW's
could progress northward into the remainder of Nevada. This looks
like the best day for wetting thunderstorms across the CWA, as the
process is aided by southwest flow, with Nevada caught in between
a flat ridge centered in the central U.S. and troffing to our
northwest. The GFS is keeping some nocturnal convection going on
Monday and Tuesday night as well, which makes sense with the
higher moisture present. Some low pops were introduced for those
overnight periods, though conservatively since it is Day 6.

It should be noted that the EC keeps the trof energy a bit
further north and does not allow for as much moisture to advect
into Nevada Monday and Tuesday. The GFS was given more weight in
the forecast package, however, as it has been consistently
advertising this good monsoonal push for the past week.

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.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening.
Low confidence in an isolated dry thunderstorm for any of the
terminals this afternoon/evening. Any thunderstorm could contain
downburst winds of 30-50 mph.

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.FIRE WEATHER...Red Flag conditions are expected today and Friday
for Fire Zones 469 470 454 and 455 due to dry thunderstorm
potential. A hint of a monsoon flow today and again on Friday
will expand the threat for thunderstorms to most zones, with the
tendency towards continued dry-variety storms. Thunderstorms are
not expected across Fire Zone 467 today. Hot temperatures will
continue through at least the middle of next week. Moisture is
expected to increase each day and thunderstorms are expected each
afternoon through the middle of next week. Some storms should
transition to wet on Friday and possibly become all wet by the
weekend.

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.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon today to 10 PM PDT Friday for Central
Lander and Eureka Counties-Eastern Elko County-Southwestern and
Central Elko County-White Pine County.

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92/90/90/92