Heat in Nevada, July 1 to 5, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
842 PM PDT Fri Jun 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through
the weekend with continued dry weather. Lighter winds are expected
across the area today before the next weather disturbance brings
breezy, southerly winds for the weekend. First potential chance
for monsoon moisture will come late next week after the fourth of
July holiday.

&&

.UPDATE...Small cumulus field over the White Mtns and Fish Lake
Valley of Esmeralda County this evening. Elsewhere, skies are clear
with temperatures some 5-10 degrees off their highs of the day. Las
Vegas topped 105 degrees today making it the 16th straight day with
a high temperature of 105 or better. The record is 21 consecutive
days.

Weak trough moving into northern California/western Nevada Saturday
will bring back the south/southwest breezes. Hi=res models showing
strongest belt will be across parts of Inyo/Esmeralda and Nye
counties. On Sunday, trough weakens but much of the area can still
expect some afternoon and evening breezes. Above normal temperatures
on Saturday will lower and be closer to normal Sunday. No update
necessary.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...224 PM PDT Fri Jun 30 2017
.SHORT TERM...tonight through Monday.

Tranquil conditions expected to continue through this evening as
an upper level ridge moves across the area. Behind the ridge, a
weak upper disturbance will track overhead on Saturday before
lifting to the NE on Sunday. Conditions will remain dry and warm
as the trough passes, however, a breezy south wind will setup
across the Mojave Desert and southern Great Basin zones. Wind
speeds are will range from 15-20 MPH for most areas. Areas of
central Nye County will see slightly higher wind speeds compared
to the surrounding areas, with winds around 20-25 MPH and gusts up
to 30 MPH. A south/southwest wind will linger Monday but should
remain less than 15 MPH. Along with the wind, some high clouds
across the northern areas will accompany the shortwave trough this
weekend. Elsewhere, clear skies are expected through Monday.
Temperatures will remain 5-8 degrees above normal tomorrow,
before a slight decrease to afternoon temperatures Sunday and
Monday, where highs will only be 2-5 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.

Dry and warm conditions will continue through at least the Fourth of
July across the forecast area. Little wind or significant sensible
weather is expected through that time. There is fairly decent
agreement that by Wednesday, high pressure will be set up over the
Four Corners region. This will at least open the door for monsoon
moisture to seep into the region. Early indications show some low-
grade moisture moving over SE California (including the Sierra) in
the Wednesday/Thursday time frame. By Friday, the high pressure may
begin to slide toward SW Utah. This would likely bring warmer
temperatures back to the region. It also could bring trapped low-
grade moisture to more of the forecast area. However, capping due to
subsidence may limit convective activity in this set-up. As we move
into Monsoon 2017, it's important to remember that confidence in the
long-term forecast is usually lower than the rest of the year. This
is due to how sensitive monsoon convection is to small-scale features
that are poorly resolved at longer time scales.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Lighter winds are expected this evening as high
pressure builds over the area with dry conditions continuing into
early next week. Breezy winds are likely this weekend as a weak
shortwave moves through the region, with slightly higher winds
expected on Saturday. Speeds will remain primarily between 15-20
mph gusting near 25 mph from the south to southwest each
afternoon. Potentially critical fire weather conditions will be
possible on Saturday afternoon across central and southern Nye
County but look to be very marginal at this time. Elsewhere, winds
should remain slightly under 20 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...Slight drop in temperatures over the past week
along with a shrinking snowpack has lead to a lowering of flows in
unregulated creeks, specifically Independence Creek, Big Pine Creek
and Rock Creek from their peak flows observed on June 22. Even with
this lowering, creeks, streams and rivers will be flowing higher
than normal during the extended holiday weekend. Minor flooding
could occur near creeks as well as a few low water crossings on some
roadways. Remember, never drive through flooded roadways or around
barricades. Also, pastureland or farmland adjacent to creeks,
streams or rivers could experience areas of standing water.

&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Southerly breezes below 8 kts will become
light and variable after 12Z overnight.  Southerly wind will
increase Saturday afternoon as a disturbance approaches from the
west.  Wind speeds of 15-20 kts will be common with gusts exceeding
25 kts at times.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Winds will follow a general diurnal trend today and
tonight as high pressure remains over the area with winds around 10
knots or less. The exception will be across the western Mojave
Desert where speeds could reach 15-20 knots tonight from the west
southwest.  Southerly wind will increase from the south to north on
Saturday beginning after 17Z along the Colorado River at KEED and
KIFP. Wind speeds of 15-20 kts will be common with gusts of 25-30
kts at times.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

Update/Hydrology...Pierce
SHORT TERM.....Boothe
LONG TERM......Wolcott
AVIATION.......Berc
FIRE WEATHER...Guillet

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