Drought in Guam, July 1 to 31, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
400 PM ChST Fri Jun 30 2017

.Marianas Synopsis...
Partly cloudy skies, a few showers and gentle to moderate trade
winds prevail across the Marianas this afternoon. Buoys show seas
of 3 to 4 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
A fairly dry pattern will remain over the Marianas for most of the
weekend. A weak disturbance to the east-southeast will bring
increasing cloudiness to the islands Saturday morning. Another
disturbance approaches the area again on Sunday, with increasing
cloudiness, showers and isolated thunderstorms possible late
Sunday night into Monday. The next round of showers and thunderstorms
is possible Tuesday on through the remainder of the week. The problem
is that the models, both GFS and ECMWF, keep changing in regards to
this time period. Latest GFS shows a much drier pattern Wednesday and
Thursday than previous runs, with a higher rainfall chance on July
4th. Based on the model uncertainty, decided to add mostly cloudy
wording and isolated thunderstorms to Tuesday through Wednesday
forecast, but not decrease the convection for Thursday and Friday.
Next week shows the potential of being a wet week.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia...
ASCAT Analysis indicates a very weak circulation south of Chuuk near
5N151E, and a surface trough over northern Pohnpei State is causing
scattered showers that are moving west toward northern Chuuk State.
Also, spotty trade-wind showers are over the far northern Marshall
Islands today. A weak ridge and fair weather prevail at Kosrae and
Majuro for the near term. Approaching the Date Line, another trade-
wind disturbance will move westward and likely trigger some showers
for Majuro and Kosrae this weekend, then Pohnpei and Chuuk early
next week.

&&

.Western Micronesia...
ASCAT Analysis shows the circulation northwest of Yap near 12N135E
is moving toward the northwest and gradually developing. Converging
southwest and southeast winds have been triggering patchy showers
over far Western Micronesia today, and models indicate relatively
wet weather will persist at Yap and Koror through tonight at least.
Improving weather is expected during this weekend, then unstable
conditions may develop again by next week as some disturbed weather
gradually moves west from Eastern Micronesia.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

Kleeschulte/Simpson