October got off to an active start, with the first event unfolding between the evening of Sunday the 1st and the pre-dawn hours of Monday the 2nd as thunderstorms rumbled across the vast majority of South Central Nebraska in generally west-to-east fashion. While the bulk of this activity was sub-severe, some of the initial storms yielded a smattering of large hail and damaging wind reports…
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
October got off to an active start, with the first event unfolding between the evening of Sunday the 1st and the pre-dawn hours of Monday the 2nd as thunderstorms rumbled across the vast majority of South Central Nebraska in generally west-to-east fashion. While the bulk of this activity was sub-severe, some of the initial storms yielded a smattering of large hail and damaging wind reports primarily within Dawson and Gosper counties. The most significant ground-truth reports featured estimated 75 MPH winds near Johnson Lake, which downed large tree branches and blew off a portion of a grain bin roof. Otherwise, there were several instances of penny to quarter size hail in that same general area, including in and near communities such as Lexington, Overton and Elm Creek. Well to the southeast of the primary zone of severe activity, a completely separate, isolated storm lifting northeast from Kansas dropped quarter size hail in far southern Webster County near Guide Rock. Rainfall-wise, the majority of the 24-county area tallied between 0.50-1.50, with one of the isolated higher totals featuring 2.20 southwest of Ravenna.
Breaking down timing and evolution, the most intense storms of the evening impacted the local area between 7:30-10:00 p.m. CDT. Initially, a cluster of strong-to-severe cells spread into the Dawson/Gosper counties area from the west, yielding the majority of wind/hail reports. With time, this cluster expanded/merged into other activity to its northeast and southwest, forming a nearly solid line of gradually-weakening convection that marched across the majority of South Central Nebraska before departing eastward after midnight. Separate from the main action, an isolated supercell storm drifted across portions of Webster/Nuckolls counties mainly between 8:30-10:00 p.m. CDT before dissipating. However, this long-lived storm had waned in intensity even before reaching far southern Nebraska, after initiating hours earlier in northwest Kansas.
In the mid-upper levels, this was a rather favorable early-fall severe weather setup, as small-scale disturbances overspread the Central Plains in enhanced southwesterly flow, rotating around the periphery of a large scale trough anchored over the Northern Rockies. At the surface, afternoon and evening storms first developed west of the local area, focused along both a cold front stretched through western/northern Nebraska and also northeast of low pressure centered over eastern Colorado. Breezy southerly winds ushered in an increasingly moist and unstable airmass, with dewpoints climbing into the upper 50s-low 60s F. Shortly before severe storms moved in during the evening, mesoscale analysis featured around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE and effective deep-layer shear around 50 knots. Storm organization was aided by a southerly low level jet accelerating to 50-60 knots at 850 millibars.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 1, 5:41 PM CST, 2 hours 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 641 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday Night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 An active weather pattern is expected across the local area through the short term periods. With clearing to our west this afternoon...instability has been building ahead of an approaching cold front. Currently this front extends from near O'Neill Nebraska southwest into eastern Colorado. Can already see some cumulus starting to develop along the boundary...although nothing has yet to really take off. That said...with plenty of instability...effective shear values of 35 to 40 kts...and forcing from the front...think that it is only a matter of time before strong convection begins to initiate. With the aforementioned parameters...have no trouble imagining that organized convection will develop...with the potential for large hail...strong thunderstorm wind gusts...as well as an isolated tornado or two. Will continue to monitor...but think that this convection will initiate to our west around 4 PM or 5 PM...making it to our western fringes by early evening...and spreading east across the forecast area during the mid evening through overnight hours. Short term model guidance is in fair agreement with this...with both the HRRR/RAP developing a line of thunderstorms and taking it east later this evening. With a developing LLJ on the warm side of this boundary...expect convection to persist through much of the overnight hours...but with the best potential for severe storms coming primarily before midnight. With the cold front expected to stall across the local area tomorrow...expect a fairly good temperature gradient to develop by afternoon...with highs in the lower 60s forecast for our north...and mid 80s forecast across out southeast. This front should also become a focal point for convection during the late afternoon and evening hours...with another chance for strong or marginally severe thunderstorms late in the day tomorrow. While severe potential does not look as great tomorrow...expect at least the potential for marginally severe hail and 60 mph winds gusts with the strongest storms through the evening hours. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Continued unsettled weather is expected through much of the extended periods as a cold front meanders across the local area. This should keep temperatures near or slightly below normal...with multiple chances for showers and a few thunderstorms across parts of the local area...although severe weather appears unlikely at this time. The main frontal boundary will eventually shift southeast of the local area by next weekend...with dry conditions and a return to above normal temperatures returning next Saturday afternoon and Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday) Issued at 635 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 Scattered severe thunderstorms across western KS and NE will continue eastward into the evening, eventually impacting both TAF sites, but also gradually decreasing in intensity. The HRRR model is handling the ongoing convection very well, so I have leaned on it heavily for this TAF issuance. The HRRR fills the ongoing storms into a well defined line that moves southeastward. This makes sense given the increasing low-level jet. As such I have included a brief period of prevailing TS at both sites. Some LLWS is also expected before the boundary passes through the area tonight. Behind this boundary, we could see cloud ceilings drop into the MVFR category into Monday morning. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && SHORT TERM...Rossi LONG TERM...Rossi AVIATION...Mangels
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Hastings NE 224 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 021930- Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance- Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York- Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin- Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer- 224 PM CDT Sun Oct 1 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and portions of north central Kansas. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. There is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will between 6 pm and midnight...and primarily west of highway 281. The main severe weather threats include hail to the size of Tennis balls...70 mph winds...as well as an isolated tornado or two. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There are multiple chances for thunderstorms across the local area through the middle of the upcoming work week. The best chance for any strong or severe thunderstorms will be along a cold front during the afternoon and evening hours Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is expected for areas mainly west of highway 281 later this afternoon or evening. Any reports of large hail...strong thunderstorm wind gusts...or funnel clouds would be very much appreciated. && More information may be obtained at the following web page: https://www.weather.gov/hastings Rossi
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
800 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0750 PM HAIL KENSINGTON 39.77N 99.03W
10/01/2017 M2.00 INCH SMITH KS TRAINED SPOTTER
PING PONG BALL TO EGG SIZED HAIL.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
810 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0759 PM HAIL AGRA 39.76N 99.12W
10/01/2017 E1.25 INCH PHILLIPS KS PUBLIC
PICTURE OF HAIL POSTED ON TWITTER.
&&
MANGELSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
814 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017
NEZ060-072-020200-
Dawson NE-Gosper NE-
814 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GOSPER AND DAWSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...
At 813 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Willow Island to 9 miles northwest of Eustis to
near Moorefield to near Stockville. Movement was east at 25 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Cozad, Gothenburg, Sumner, Eddyville, Willow Island,
Johnson Lake and Farnam.
This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 209 and 242.
A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Nebraska.
LAT...LON 4105 10022 4105 9949 4081 9953 4066 9969
4057 9998 4070 9998 4070 10022
TIME...MOT...LOC 0113Z 256DEG 24KT 4089 10005 4078 10014 4067 10029
4056 10045
RossiPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
820 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0753 PM HAIL 4 WNW KIRWIN 39.68N 99.20W
10/01/2017 E1.75 INCH PHILLIPS KS FIRE DEPT/RESCUE
HAIL COVERING ROAD AND IN DITCHES. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
MANGELSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
824 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0749 PM HAIL KENSINGTON 39.77N 99.03W
10/01/2017 E1.75 INCH SMITH KS STORM CHASER
FROM TWITTER.
&&
MANGELSSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
845 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017
NEZ060-061-073-074-020230-
Buffalo NE-Phelps NE-Kearney NE-Dawson NE-
845 PM CDT SUN OCT 1 2017
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN PHELPS...NORTHERN
KEARNEY...BUFFALO AND SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM
CDT...
At 845 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Overton to near Minden. Movement was
northeast at 50 mph.
Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.
Locations impacted include...
Kearney, Minden, Gibbon, Ravenna, Shelton, Elm Creek, Overton,
Odessa, Pleasanton, Amherst, Riverdale and Poole.
This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 245 and 292.
A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
and central Nebraska.
A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central and central Nebraska.
LAT...LON 4105 9917 4105 9872 4063 9872 4047 9901
4069 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 228DEG 44KT 4071 9948 4055 9903
Billings WrightThe Grand Island radar (KUEX), 124 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:52 UTC.
7 hail, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Wind gusts estimated to be near 60 MPH resulted in some tree limbs of 2-3 inches in diameter being downed.
Wind gusts estimated to be near 75 MPH resulted in some scattered irrigation pipes and larger tree limbs downed in the area. A section of roof from a grain bin was also removed by the wind.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, October 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 722696, 722697, 722688, 722689, 722690, 722691, 722692, 722693, 722694.