A cold front swept east-southeast across the region as Hurricane Nate was coming ashore near Mobile, Alabama. Showers and storms developed along and in advance of the front.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A cold front swept east-southeast across the region as Hurricane Nate was coming ashore near Mobile, Alabama. Showers and storms developed along and in advance of the front. As moisture from the remnants of Nate moved north, some of the storms produced very heavy tropical rains south of a Mayfield to Owensboro line. In these areas, two to five inches of rain fell over a two-day period. There was urban street flooding, and water was over a state road.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 8, 6:08 AM CST, 2 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 708 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 658 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 For aviation section only. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Quite an active short term period coming up. Firstly, what is now tropical storm Nate will weaken fairly quickly over land this morning as it takes rapid aim on the TN River Valley later today. Deformation rains on the northwest side of the system will likely continue to rotate northwest toward potions of southwest IN, and esp the Pennyrile region of western KY. Doppler radar estimates some areas of the Pennyrile from northern Trigg county through Muhlenberg county have already received upwards of 4 inches of rainfall. Another inch or two cannot be ruled out today in that area, but thinking is rain rates will stay low enough to preclude a flash flood watch at this time. In addition, this area was quite dry leading into this event. Will need to monitor though for the possibility of a few short fuse headlines today. Again...there will be a fairly sharp cut off to significant rains as one heads west toward the MS River. Should be a temporary break in precip chances later tonight and Monday as weak high pressure moves in behind the remnants of Nate. Main concern for tonight lies with the possibility of dense fog formation as winds go calm and conditions remain quite damp and humid with sfc dew point hanging in the 60s. Even if skies do no clear, there is a chance that ceilings could lower to the deck with time overnight. If and where fog does indeed form, it could be quite dense. The next weather system in the form of a very potent mid level short wave and its associated cold front will be moving into the mid MS River Valley/lower OH River Valley region on Tuesday/Tuesday evening. Moderate instability is forecast to develop Tuesday afternoon ahead of the sfc front. In addition, forecast soundings indicate strong deep-layer shear may be present as the mid level short wave approaches from the west. If current timing of the system remains unchanged, would not be surprised to see much of our region go under a decent risk for sct strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, with even a few supercells in the mix. Will need to monitor trends. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Generally good model agreement lends higher than average confidence to the forecast through the long term. In the wake of Tuesday's weather system, an upper level ridge is forecast to expand northward from the Deep South into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys heading into the weekend. This should result in dry weather through the period. While a brief cooldown is expected on Wednesday in the wake of Tuesday's frontal passage, a return to readings well above normal appears probable late in the week as winds turn southerly on the back side of departing surface high pressure. In fact, highs in the mid 80s are expected by Friday and Saturday, which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION... Issued at 705 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 Biggest challenge is timing of the arrival of moisture/rain from Nate. The trend will be for rain to develop across west KY and shift north northwest with time today. MVFR cigs will be likely by the time the rain arrives along with periodic drops in the vsby with the heavier rainfall. The trend will be for the rain to taper off west to east Sunday afternoon/early evening. All signals then point to a big drop in cigs/vsbys during the evening hours, possibly leading to a more wisdespread dense fog set up for later tonight. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...GM SHORT TERM...GM LONG TERM...RJP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 436 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-091000- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 436 AM CDT Sun Oct 8 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be possible today, mainly over the Pennyrile region of western Kentucky. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Scattered thunderstorms will forecast Tuesday. A few severe thunderstorms will also be possible, with damaging winds and hail the primary storm hazards. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed on Tuesday.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water topped a portion of Highway 121 between New Concord and the Tennessee state line.
Widespread street flooding was reported in Hopkinsville. Three to four feet of water was reported at a flood-prone street intersection. Another couple of streets were blocked.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, October 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 723127, 723128.