Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, July 1, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

It appears most of the development of showers and tstms this
afternoon will be along a sluggish front/convergence zone across
western KY, where 1000-2000+ J/kg CAPES exist. Main concern
is heavy rainfall rates. Updated aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

Upper level trof axis from the Upper Midwest south into MO/KS will
continue to move east this morning, and by 18z extend from the
eastern Great Lakes south over the Ohio Valley, with a weak "cold"
front to the Ohio River. Modest mid trop NW flow will persist
with subtle waves within the flow after the stronger trof passes
east. Meanwhile the surface front should stall over the area
tonight through Sunday. Today, best PoPs will be over SEMO, the
southern tip of IL into west KY where better moisture is forecast.
Current activity over SEMO will continue east early this morning.
It is a bit faster than the hires models. Will keep PoPs low
chance category after 12z and through the afternoon over southern
sections.

Tonight, a slight chance of early evening storms mainly over west KY
should push south of the area, dry overnight. Will linger a low
chance PoP for convection over the southern 1/2 of the area near the
stalled frontal boundary Sunday through Sunday night. Warm sector
returns for Monday through Monday night with a bit more mid level
energy forecast to move across the area. Will have slightly higher
PoPs into the chance category for this time frame. We used a blend
of MOS and existing numbers for temperatures. Favored a GFS/CMC/EC
blend Sunday into Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

Confidence is relatively good in the extended portion of the
forecast as model solutions become better synchronized.

The first half of this period looks unsettled as an upper level
trough slowly shifts east from the Plains. Timing of thunderstorm
activity is nearly impossible this far out. However, a relative
maximum coincident with peak heating should time out during the
afternoon and evening hours. Tuesday and Wednesday appear to pose
the greatest potential for better coverage.

While a couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out, severe weather
does not appear to be much of a concern given the rather weak flow
aloft. However, the slow storm motion coupled with high precipitable
water values will raise the potential for localized flooding.

Conditions should largely dry out for much of Thursday and Friday as
the upper trough shifts east of the region. It will be seasonably
hot and humid through the period. Highs are forecast in the upper
80s, though readings could push 90 by Friday. Lows should average in
the lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

VFR conditions will be the rule for the next 24 hours, with light
westerly winds and variable cloud cover expected. At this time, it
appears that the development of showers and tstms at the TAF sites
is not likely, but other airports across parts of the Purchase and
Pennyrile regions of KY may get a burst of heavy rain, lightning,
and possible MVFR cigs through the afternoon.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

Update...DB
Short Term...CN
Long Term....RJP
Aviation.....DB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
304 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-021000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
304 AM CDT Sat Jul 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today through this evening. The
best chances will be from southeast Missouri, into the southern
tip of Illinois and western Kentucky.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a chance of thunderstorms Sunday mainly over southeast
Missouri into west Kentucky. From Monday through Thursday, chances
will be area wide. Isolated strong storms with locally heavy
rainfall will be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
130 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

KYZ008-009-012-011915-
Marshall KY-Calloway KY-Trigg KY-
130 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CALLOWAY...
SOUTHEASTERN MARSHALL AND SOUTHERN TRIGG COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 129 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Benton, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.
Torrential rainfall and frequent lightning can also be expected.

Locations impacted include...
Murray, Benton, Cadiz, Land Between The Lakes Area, Energy, Canton,
Hardin, Aurora and Linton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

If on or near Kentucky Lake or Lake Barkley, get out of the water
and move indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike
out to 10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to
safe shelter now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8785 3666 8785 3668 8801 3668 8807
      3665 8806 3666 8838 3684 8838 3690 8782
      3664 8774
TIME...MOT...LOC 1829Z 267DEG 29KT 3675 8835

DRS