Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 15 to 17, 2017

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
641 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 316 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

For the remainder of the afternoon, temperatures will once again
rise into the lower 90s across the area as steady warm advection
continues. Dew point values have risen into the lower to mid 70s,
making for heat indices near the 100 degree mark for areas across
eastern Kansas and western Missouri. Fortunately, this transpired
only recently as subsidence in the wake of early morning
convection helped to temporarily scour out at least some of the
low-level moisture content this morning.

Aside from the heat, the main impact in the short-term will come in
the form of additional thunderstorm activity approaching eastern
Kansas and western Missouri near sunset this evening. Convection has
recently formed across central Kansas near leeside surface low
pressure underneath increasing 850 hPa wind fields within a
very unstable air mass. Additional storms are expected to fire
across central Kansas, eventually forming an MCS by this evening.
This cluster of activity will then push ESE with time, arriving
into eastern Kansas near sunset. With the loss of convergence,
diurnal heating, and decreasing 850 hPa winds, storms are
expected to generally weaken as they approach the CWA. With that
said, an elevated highly unstable air mass will remain over the
area, coupled with steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Thus,
despite the overall weakening storm trend, the environment will
still support large hail and damaging winds for eastern Kansas and
western Missouri this evening. Storms will then continue to
weaken before arriving into central Missouri, and should clear
east of the local area by early Friday morning.

Friday's setup will be very similar to Thursday. The warm sector
will remain over the region as high temperatures approach the low
90s. Dry conditions are expected through much of the day in the wake
of dissipating storms early Friday morning. Another progged MCS will
then develop upstream Friday evening, this one being formed over
southeastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa. Near-zonal flow aloft
will become northwesterly, which should direct storms over northwest
to north central Missouri Friday night. Once again anticipating
potential large hail and strong winds Friday night into Saturday
morning for areas particularly north of Highway 36, though this
potential may continue well into central Missouri depending on how
storms progress southward into Saturday morning.

Dew point values will continue to increase Saturday, eventually
rising into the mid 70s for areas south of the Missouri River. The
prolonged duration of the resulting increased heat indices near
criteria values may warrant a Heat Advisory for Saturday
afternoon, especially in light of weekend activities. Another
round of thunderstorms are then expected to form along a cold
front Saturday night into Sunday morning as the upstream boundary
finally receives enough of a push to advance through the local
area. Ample convergence along the front, increasing wind fields
aloft ahead of a deepening upper-level trough to the north, and
the existing unstable environment may support the best chance of
widespread severe potential locally throughout this multi-day
event. Widespread rain along the front is also anticipated,
though the progressive nature of the front should limit rainfall
amounts to generally half an inch or less.

Cooler temperatures and dry conditions will then follow early Sunday
and Monday as a surface ridge advances into the area. The pattern
will then become active once again by the mid-week as southerly
flow returns to the area.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

The main concern this TAF pd will be for thunderstorms capable of
producing gusty winds to 40kts and mod-hvy rain reducing vsbys to
2SM or less btn 03Z-06Z. Lgt thunderstorms or showers will remain
in the VC of the terminals thru 08Z. Byd that the TAF should
remain VFR with just sct clouds around 5kft thru tomorrow morning
before giving way to bkn mid-lvl clouds tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...73

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
458 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-161000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
458 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Temperatures will climb into the lower to mid 90s with heat index
values ranging from 98 to 102 degrees this afternoon creating some
potential for heat related issues. Storms are expected to develop
over Kansas and Iowa in the late afternoon and move into our area
after sunset. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with
damaging winds being the main threat.

More detailed information can be accessed at...
https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The pattern of hot and humid daytime hours with potential strong to
severe storms pushing through the area overnight will continue for
Friday and Saturday evenings. The dewpoints on Saturday will increase
into the mid 70s creating heat index values from 100 to 105 degrees
in the afternoon. This would be the hottest heat index temperatures
of the year so far so precautions may need to be taken for those
sensitive to heat related illnesses. The active storm pattern will
end Sunday morning with no significant hazardous weather expected
through Wednesday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
829 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

KSZ103>105-160215-
Johnson KS-Wyandotte KS-Leavenworth KS-
829 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL WYANDOTTE...
SOUTHWESTERN LEAVENWORTH AND WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
CDT...

At 829 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Eudora, or near Lawrence, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Olathe, Shawnee, Lenexa, Gardner, Bonner Springs, De Soto, Linwood,
Reno, Clare and Clearview City.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 35 in Kansas between mile markers 211 and 216.
 Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 206 and 223.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3906 9518 3910 9485 3880 9479 3883 9506
      3898 9506 3899 9507 3898 9509 3897 9508
      3896 9508 3897 9511 3897 9513 3898 9516
      3896 9517 3897 9519
TIME...MOT...LOC 0129Z 264DEG 23KT 3897 9517

Mell