Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 15, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
237 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

There is a high likelyhood of severe weather this afternoon and
evening over much of the CWA. Strong moisture transport, high CAPE
(4500+) and strong shear (35 to 45kts bulk shear) will provide a
nearly ideal set up for severe weather this afternoon and into the
early evening. Very large hail and high winds (70-80mph) will be
likely with the strongest storms. This activity is expected wane
after sunset. Conditions will still be favorable for some
scattered showers and thunderstorms but most of the activity is
expected to end by morning. The main threat during the late
evening and overnight hours will be high winds.  Friday will be
mostly sunny and conditions will not be as conducive to
thunderstorm activity. This will make mid to upper 90s easy for
afternoon highs.

Saturday there will be a strong cap in place which will prevent
any thunderstorm activity from starting during the afternoon. Full
sun, light winds and high 850mb temperatures will make for a hot
day as many areas are likely to reach the century mark. Moisture
transport from the south will still be rather good making for a
humid day as well. This will drive heat indices into the 104 to
107 range for some areas of Southeast Kansas. While there is
plenty of moisture and shear available for thunderstorm activity
Saturday, there will be strong cap in place that will need some
significant forcing to start off thunderstorm activity despite
high CAPE and DCAPE in the region. the needed forcing will be
provided by an approaching frontal system. This front will be
coming through the CWA during the evening and overnight hours
Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms, some of which are likely to
be severe, with the main threats being high winds and very heavy
rain. Sunday the flow will switch to the northwest and
temperatures will come back down to normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

The extended range will be characterized by temperatures warming
back up to well above normal levels. However, it does appear the
next week will be rather active. Once the general flow shifts back
around to the south, moisture transport will return to the
region. Shear levels will increase and will provide a good
environment for more shower and thunderstorm activity Tuesday
night and Thursday as well. Current setup indicates there is some
severe storm potential with activity.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

The main hazard to aviation will be severe storm potential this
afternoon into tonight.

Initial scattered severe storm development is expected in west-
central to north-central Kansas early to mid afternoon, with an
evolution to organized clusters of severe storms by early evening,
with an east-southeastward propagation across south-
central/southeast Kansas. Storms will be likely at most terminals
by this evening, although exact timing windows are difficult to
pinpoint. RSL, GBD, SLN, HUT are likely to be affected first, then
ICT and CNU more likely this evening. Damaging winds will be the
primary hazard, with hail a secondary threat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    95  70  95  73 /  40  60  10  10
Hutchinson      96  68  95  71 /  60  70  10  10
Newton          95  69  94  72 /  50  70  10  20
ElDorado        95  69  92  73 /  30  70  10  20
Winfield-KWLD   95  70  94  74 /  40  60  10  10
Russell         97  67  97  69 /  60  40  20  20
Great Bend      97  67  97  69 /  60  40  10  10
Salina          97  69  97  73 /  70  80  20  30
McPherson       96  68  96  72 /  70  80  10  20
Coffeyville     93  71  92  74 /  20  60  10  20
Chanute         93  70  91  73 /  20  70  10  30
Iola            93  69  91  73 /  20  60  10  30
Parsons-KPPF    93  71  91  74 /  20  70  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...JMC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
329 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-162030-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
329 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to develop in central
Kansas between this afternoon, with initial threats of very large
hail up to baseball size and damaging winds. There is potential for
storms to merge into a cluster or two, with a southeastward
acceleration during the late afternoon and evening hours, across
south-central and southeastern Kansas. The clusters will be capable
of destructive wind gusts up to 75 mph or greater, hail to golfball
size, and torrential rainfall. A tornado cannot be ruled out with
any discrete storms this afternoon in central Kansas.

Heat index values are expected to be in the 100 to 105 degree range
this afternoon. Be sure to drink plenty of water and wear light
clothing if outdoor activity is necessary.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Storms will be possible Friday night and early Saturday morning most
areas of the region. Severe weather is also likely for locations
generally along and east of I-135. High winds and very heavy rain
being the primary threat. Severe hail (1") can't be ruled out but
it is expected to be a lower threat. These storms will arrive as a
cold front comes through the region in the late afternoon and into
the overnight hours.

Heat index values are expected to be in the 100 to 105 degree range
for both Friday and Saturday area wide. Be sure to drink plenty of
water and wear light clothing if outdoor activity is necessary.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
231 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

KSZ032-152030-
Russell KS-
231 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Russell County in central Kansas...

* Until 330 PM CDT

* At 224 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a thunderstorm over Hays...moving east at 20 mph.

This is a dangerous storm which will be capable of producing hail up
to the size of tennis balls...and wind gusts up to 70 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
  Russell, Gorham and Milberger.

Those in the path of this storm should prepare for DANGEROUS WEATHER
CONDITIONS and watch for any warnings issued for your area.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3898 9904 3899 9884 3870 9885 3870 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1926Z 281DEG 16KT 3886 9921

JAKUB