Flood in Iowa, July 30 to 31, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
649 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017

Clear and cool across E Iowa/NW Illinois with sfc high overhead.
Temps ranged from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Monticello, IA was
the only observing station reporting fog. Additional areas of
shallow ground fog may develop through early this morning, but
should be localized in low-lying/river valley areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017

Today and Tonight

Beautiful late July weather continues to round out the weekend.
Expect sunny skies and highs around 80 F. Cool again tonight with
lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017

Surface high pressure under northwest flow aloft will result in
dry and pleasant weather to start off the work week. Southeast
low-level flow Monday will shift to southerly Tuesday allowing
temperatures and dew points to increase a few degrees.

Models continue struggling midweek with what is now a pair of
upper level troughs and surface cold front progged across the
Midwest. Looks like a weak trough will precede the main show with
the cold front moving through the CWA Wednesday and a more
significant trough swinging across the area Thursday.

While low-level forcing is not too impressive with the cold front, the
trough on Thursday is looking stronger in the models tonight than
prior runs. Sufficient moisture is in place to start raising PoPs
for this system if models continue to show some agreement with the
details later today, but we are not there yet. Severe threat
looks minimal Wednesday with moderate CAPEs and little shear.
Thursday appears a little better as shear increases along with
the trough passage. But at this point the risk looks minimal
enough to not advertise it widely yet.

Cold air advection Friday is quite impressive with 850 mb temps
dropping into single digits (C) on the GFS and ECMWF. Both models
show modest CAPE, and with cold air aloft, indicate potential for
diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms both Friday and
Saturday.

CPC's Week 2 outlook continues to depict higher chances of below
normal temps but with no indication drier or wetter than normal
on precip.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours. Uttech

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Wolf
AVIATION...Uttech

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
318 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-310830-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
318 AM CDT Sun Jul 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A couple of upper level weather systems will move across the area
Wednesday and Thursday bringing a chance of thunderstorms each
day. At this time it appears the main threat will be lightning.

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

wolf/uttech