Arizona, 2017Flash Flooding in Arizona, July 30, 2017
July 30, 2017 · NWS TWC · 2 events in 2 counties and zones
Numerous slow-moving thunderstorms drifted to the northwest across southeast Arizona creating flash flooding, including at Sabino Creek where 26 people had to be rescued and in the Ash Canyon area where homes were damaged downstream of the Frye Fire burn scar.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- $200,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 2
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Numerous slow-moving thunderstorms drifted to the northwest across southeast Arizona creating flash flooding, including at Sabino Creek where 26 people had to be rescued and in the Ash Canyon area where homes were damaged downstream of the Frye Fire burn scar.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 30, 10:00 AM MST, 2 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 30, 10:00 AM MST, 2 hours 49 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1000 AM MST Sun Jul 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS...An elevated risk of thunderstorms will continue today
with locally heavy rain and strong winds with some storms. High
temperatures will generally be a few degrees below normal due to
the rainfall coverage again Sunday and Monday. The weather pattern
will remain favorable for daily thunderstorms this week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A very moist air mass and a weak steering flow
remained over the region today. These conditions in combination with
wet soils from previous rain will maintain an elevated concern for
flash flooding this afternoon and evening. The upper low that was
exiting the Texas Big Bend area 24 hours ago was lifting north
through New Mexico along the western periphery of the high centered
over central Texas. A secondary disturbance was lifting northward
out of northern Mexico in the wake of the upper low. Recent
satellite imagery was showing some clearing in the subsidence region
of both features across extreme southeast Arizona, southwest New
Mexico and farther south in Sonora, Mexico. Differential surface
heating should aid in the redevelopment of showers and thunderstorms
later today in this general area of clearing this morning. The
current forecast appeared to reflect these trend so no updates
necessary at this time.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid thru 31/18Z.
Isolated -SHRA this morning mainly near the Int'l border. Scattered
to numerous TSRA/SHRA this afternoon and evening at all terminals.
Cloud decks generally 5k-10k ft AGL with brief MVFR/IFR conditions
likely in/near TSRA. SFC wind variable in direction mainly less than
12 kts, except in the vicinity of TSRA where gusts may exceed 40
kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Fire weather concerns are low through the next week.
Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will persist this week across
most of southeast Arizona. Daytime temperatures will generally be at
or below normal with elevated relative humidities. Outside of gusty
thunderstorm winds, expect 20-foot winds to remain at or below 15
mph and follow typical upslope/down valley diurnal patterns.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...We remain in a very favorable pattern for storms.
Large scale mean ridge position through western states, but the most
significant high center consolidation is immediately east of our
area with an inverted trough extending from central Baja through
Arizona. Add in a long fetch of deep moisture and we're vulnerable
to storms at any hour with a sufficient trigger. That can build
normally through solar insolation with a more traditional diurnal
trend, or it can be triggered with outflows and weak disturbances
embedded in the flow at all hours. One such minor impulse is noted
over southwest Cochise and eastern Santa Cruz counties this morning,
moving slowly northwest over the next few hours. Expect scattered
showers with a stray lightning strike or two possible over these
areas and into Pima county this morning.
Then, how fast to we clear up and who gets the most sunshine? That
will be our starting points, in conjunction with typical easier
convective initiation over the mountains. Heavy rain again the main
concern today with precipitable water continuing well above average
(1.7 to 1.85 inches), and a modest steering flow.
As far as this coming week goes, there will be day-to-day variations
(that are sometimes dependent on how busy the previous 24 hours
are), however the bottom line is that we will keep favorable
conditions for thunderstorms across southeast Arizona.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
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Flash Flood, Graham
- When
- July 30, 12:49 PM MST to 1:30 PM MST
- Where
- Graham County, 6.2 mi WSW of Artesia to 7.32 mi SSW of Central
- Cause
- Heavy Rain / Burn Area
- Property damage
- $200,000
- Reported by
- Law Enforcement
- Coordinates
- 32.647, -109.799
Flash flooding in Ash Canyon from Frye Fire burn scar damaged at least two homes, a chicken barn and an RV, and closed Cluff Ranch Road in several locations. An undisclosed number of people were stranded in the Cluff Pond recreation area and had to be rescued. Damage also occurred to Route 366 near Ladybug Saddle and Wet Canyon from flash flooding off the same burn scar.
Flash Flood, Pima
- When
- July 30, 5:30 PM MST to 6:30 PM MST
- Where
- Pima County, 1.12 mi NNE of Sabino to 1.14 mi NE of Sabino
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Reported by
- Other Federal Agency
- Coordinates
- 32.315, -110.811
Sabino Creek at Sabino Dam spiked to 2.68 feet in 30 minutes. Twenty six hikers were trapped and had to be rescued due to flood waters over the bridge.
- Flash Flood
- Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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- Marine Thunderstorm Winds in South Atlantic Coastal Waters, July 30 to 31, 201756 kt wind · 9 events
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 714277, 714250.