An east-west line of showers and thunderstorms drifted southward, producing locally heavy rain along its path. The activity was associated with a 500 mb shortwave trough that extended from the Great Lakes region southward across the lower Ohio Valley.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
An east-west line of showers and thunderstorms drifted southward, producing locally heavy rain along its path. The activity was associated with a 500 mb shortwave trough that extended from the Great Lakes region southward across the lower Ohio Valley. A surface trough of low pressure was oriented almost directly underneath the 500 mb trough.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 6:57 AM CST, 1 hour 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 757 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 757 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Updated aviation discussion. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Positively tilted mid level trof of low pressure and its associated weak surface low will slowly make its way east- southeast across the Ohio River Valley today. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will continue to be possible along and ahead of the H50 trof, where sfc dew points continue to hover from near 70 to the lower 70s. Again, locally heavy rainfall will be the primary thunderstorm concern, as water could pond on area roadways in very short periods of time. Should get a break in the precip chances tonight into Friday before a cold front approaches late in the day and during the evening. Not much in the way of low level convergence with the surface feature, and not much of a energy/short wave aloft to support widespread convection with the frontal passage, but it should be quite unstable by late in the day as temperatures heat up to near or just above the 90 degree mark. Thus, though the activity may remain somewhat scattered in nature, what storms that do manage to develop could be a bit on the strong side. Shear values near or above 30 kts could also lead to a few multi- cellular clusters, esp over portions of sw IN. Once the front passes to our south Friday night, high pressure dropping southeast out of Canada should bring a dry and less humid start to the upcoming weekend. Surface dew points should fall back into the lower to mid 60s by Saturday afternoon, making it feel a bit more comfortable compared to what we have been experiencing lately. Under clear skies and calm winds, lows Friday night could fall into the lower half of the 60s in many locations. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 305 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Sunday through Monday, the long-term period will begin with surface high pressure centered over Kentucky. This high will bring one more day of relatively low dew points in the lower to mid 60s on Sunday. As southerly return flow develops on the back side of the high, dew points will likely approach 70 on Monday. Daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. Any thunderstorms should be very isolated, primarily on the periphery of the high (north and west of the Ohio River). Beyond Monday, the models are in general agreement that the persistent 500 mb eastern trough/western ridge pattern will continue, but with a notable de-amplification of the eastern USA trough during mid-week. This will result in an eastward expansion of the ridge across the Plains states. Despite the increasing influence of the upper ridge, thunderstorm chances will actually increase a bit. The models indicate a weak cold front will sag southward across Indiana and Illinois Tuesday and Wednesday. Any thunderstorm complexes along the front would likely propagate south/southeast across the Ohio Valley and se Missouri through a very moist and unstable air mass. The northwest flow aloft is forecast to become increasingly anticyclonic, which should help to suppress convection. Therefore, pops will kept fairly low in the chance category, mainly 30 to 40 percent. Temps Tuesday and Wednesday will depend on the amount of convective cloudiness and precip. Forecast 850 mb temps in the lower 20s Celsius easily support highs in the 90s with sunshine. However, the current regional model blend keeps highs mostly in the upper 80s. This may be a little on the conservative side, but it will be followed due to the potential for clouds and storms south of the front. Overnight lows will be mainly in the lower 70s Tues/Wed. && .AVIATION... Issued at 757 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 Though there were low (in many cases IFR) cigs around much of the region this morning, the IFR cigs should be short-lived, and cigs should be on the way up today. However, confidence at this time in the current model data is not high. We will continue to monitor current trends, which at this time indicate the low cigs may be more persistent early than currently forecast. A mid level trof axis is progged to bisect the region by early afternoon. A surface wind shift of the northwest will accompany this feature. As a result, the main cluster of showers and tstms should occur at the western TAF sites in the early afternoon, beginning earlier at the eastern TAF sites and lingering longer. Brief IFR vsbys are possible, but not included in the 12Z TAFs at this time due to lower confidence of timing. Vsby restrictions due to fog are likely late in the night. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && SHORT TERM...GM LONG TERM...MY AVIATION...DB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 733 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-071245- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 733 AM CDT Thu Jul 6 2017 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated to scattered non-severe thunderstorms will be possible, mainly during the daylight hours today. Motorists should be prepared for rapidly reduced visibilities and rapid ponding of water on roadways during brief torrential downpours. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening. An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out. Damaging wind gusts and hail would be the main concerns. Thunderstorm chances return again, mainly Tuesday and Wednesday. The main hazards with any storms would be dangerous lightning and heavy rain. An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A trained spotter reported six inches of water over both lanes of Route 149 in the Frankfort Heights area, which is on the east side of West Frankfort.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 706588.