A fast moving and vigorous Pacific storm tracked across the area and produced significant snowfall accumulations in the San Juan Mountains.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A fast moving and vigorous Pacific storm tracked across the area and produced significant snowfall accumulations in the San Juan Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 25, 7:01 PM MST, 59 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 801 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017 .UPDATE... Issued at 801 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Latest satellite imagery shows the upper level trough and cyclonic rotation moving east-southeast across southern UT. Lightning has been active under the center and to the east and south of the trough and was observed as far north as just west of Canyonlands Airport in the last hour. One band of clouds and associated virga pushed north over western CO and eastern UT late this afternoon and early this evening and helped to moisten up the lower levels. Light rain has been observed at many locations along and north of I-70 in the last couple of hours and snow was observed at 10,000 feet on Hwy 65 over the Grand Mesa. Cooling cloud tops continue to expand ahead of the base of the trough over the Four Corners and toward the San Juan Mtns. Latest RAP model indicates best and highest precip chances over the San Juans and toward the NM border between 10 pm and 4 am. During this time the snow level will also be dropping to near 8000 feet, before dropping possibly as low as 6500 feet by sunrise. The Winter Weather Advisory looks on track for 4 to 8 inches above 9500 feet and lesser amounts at the lower elevations. Forecast has been updated to support current and near term trends, especially to increase PoPs across the southern areas. A pretty sharp back edge to the mid to upper level QG forcing should bring an end to the significant precipitation by sunrise. && .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 144 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017 A fast moving and vigorous Pacific storm was tracking eastward across the Desert Southwest spreading clouds over the forecast area. Radar hadn't detected more than an area of virga over eastern Utah's Grand Flat region so far this afternoon, but that should change as the system draws closer. The latest forecast models take the open wave trough eastward across the area tonight. The bulk of the energy associated with the trough will pass just south of the Four Corners from late this evening into the early morning hours. A nice Div-Q couplet in the base of the trough combined with divergence aloft and orographic lift favors precipitation over the San Juan Mountains. Dynamics may be sufficient to generate isolated thunderstorms over portions of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado. QPF output from latest models higher than previously forecast and doesn't seem unreasonable, though there may be some convective feedback in the NAM12 solution. Consequently, boosted QPF numbers in the San Juan Mountains with this package which increased snow amounts to low end advisory amounts. Limiting factor with this event will be the warmth ahead of the trough which will limit accumulations this evening, and the short duration of this event. Temperatures suggest the snow level will be near 9500 feet at 6 PM this evening, but will lower to near 6500 feet around sunrise on Sunday. As a result, significant accumulations are likely to be limited to areas above 9500 feet, or from 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts, and from 1 to 4 inches from 8000-9500 feet, and from trace to an inch from 6500-8000 feet along the slopes of the San Juan Mountains. Given the previous, hoisted a winter weather advisory for the San Juan Mountains above 9500 feet from 6 PM this evening through 9 AM Sunday morning. Main concern is snow impacts on the high passes where road conditions will deteriorate and visibility will become limited. Surrounding mountain areas will also see snow, but accumulations will largely range from 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts on top of the Grand Mesa and into the Sawatch and West Elk ranges. Instability showers will continue along the Continental Divide Sunday, but additional accumulations are expected to be light and localized. Diurnal cooling and drying will bring an end to shower activity Sunday evening. Forecast lows tonight should be milder due to cloud cover. An influx of cooler air will bring afternoon highs down a few degrees Sunday, but temperatures will remain above normal. Colder temperatures are on the horizon Sunday night, though freezing temperatures in areas where tender vegetation has budded is unlikely. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 144 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017 As mentioned in previous discussions, the progressive spring pattern will continue during the coming week. After a brief break in activity showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to develop over much of the region Monday afternoon ahead of the next Pacific storm. Latest models were in much better agreement with the evolution and track of this system. From late Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, models deepen the trough over the western Great Basin forming a closed low over central Arizona. From there, the low center drifts slowly eastward arriving over the Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon. During this period the forecast area will fall under the col area between the storm to the south and the northern atmospheric stream. As a result, expect unsettled conditions to continue through Tuesday night with isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Mountain snow accumulations may be sufficient for additional winter weather advisories during the early part of the week. A transient ridge will allow a return to quiet weather Wednesday and most of Thursday. Thereafter, another closed Pacific low pressure system will begin to impact the area. Model agreement isn't as good as with the system discussed previously for the early part of the week, so difficult to sort out the details with this next storm with much confidence. At this point it seems fair to expect unsettled conditions during the latter part of the week. Expect a bit of roller coaster where temperatures are concerned, but variances aren't expected to be profound from one day to the next. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 503 PM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017 Mostly cloudy skies and plenty of virga seen across the area this afternoon. Scattered rain and snow showers have also already developed, generally confined to the higher terrain ATTM. Showers will increase in coverage and spread into some valleys into the evening with the best chance tonight through Sunday morning as a disturbance tracks across the region. The San Juans will be favored during this event with periods of reduced cigs and vis and obscured mountain tops overnight. Lower valley TAF site cigs should stay above ILS breakpoints but higher TAF sites like KASE and KTEX will drop down to MVFR or even IFR at times during heavier showers. Activity will decrease after 18Z tomorrow with just some lingering orographic showers as drier air works back into the region. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT Sunday for COZ018-019. UT...None. && UPDATE...BM SHORT TERM...NL LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...MMS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 332 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-260945- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 332 AM MDT Sat Mar 25 2017 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Mostly sunny conditions this morning will become mostly cloudy by afternoon with breezy conditions and scattered showers increasing from the west late in the afternoon. Showers will increase in coverage this evening and overnight due to a weak passing disturbance. 2 to 4 inches of snow is possible in the mountains. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Dry weather is expected by Sunday afternoon as a ridge of high pressure slides over the region. Monday through Friday...Another series of Pacific storm systems will move through the area bringing a continued potential for more winter weather and hazardous driving conditions over the mountain passes with mountain snow and valley rain. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
Generally 3 to 6 inches of snow fell across the area with up to 8 inches measured at the Mancos SNOTEL site.
Generally 4 to 8 inches of snow fell across the area with locally higher amounts of 11 and 12 inches measured at Monument Pass and at Telluride Ski Area, respectively.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, March 2017
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 688035, 688036.