Oregon, 2017

Sneakerwave in Oregon, March 25, 2017

March 25, 2017 · NWS MFR · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A 14 year old female died of injuries sustained when a sneaker wave caused a log to roll onto her.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.

A 14 year old female died of injuries sustained when a sneaker wave caused a log to roll onto her.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 25, 1:45 PM PST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 25, 1:45 PM PST, 1 hour 15 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
245 PM PDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.DISCUSSION...25/12Z NAM/GFS/EC in.

The northern hemispheric projection shows a wave number of four
around the globe...which argues for a slow progressive pattern.
That is indeed what we will get over the next several days.
Overall the pattern looks quite spring like...with weaker storms
driven by low amplitude upper level troughs. The primary storm
track will remain to the north of the area...but there will be
some action down here.

A weak upper level trough is now moving through the area...
bringing isolated to scattered shower activity. Amounts are quite
light and the bulk of it is falling from the Cascades west.

The showers will diminish through this evening as a flat ridge
builds over the area. The break will be short-lived, as the next
system will move in tonight.

Sunday through Monday morning look to be fairly wet as an upper
level trough approaches the coast and sends several short waves
out ahead of it. The first of these short waves will support a
surface front which will move onshore early Sunday morning. This
will bring precipitation to all of the west side and most of the
east side Sunday...along with gusty winds over the ridges...in
the Shasta Valley...and east of the Cascades. At this time it
appears that winds will remain below Advisory criteria. With the
cold core aloft...isolated thunderstorms are also possible
Sunday...mostly along the coast and over the coastal waters. There
may be a few on the east side as well. Snow levels will rise to
4500-6000 feet Sunday...then fall to around 3500-4500 feet Sunday
night.

Subsequent short waves will support plenty of shower activity
Sunday night into Monday. The last of the short waves and the
long wave trough will move through the area Monday. Showers will
diminish in the wake of the trough. Snow levels will be 3500-4000
feet or so.

After that, there will be a longer break in the action as a long
wave ridge moves toward the west coast. This will bring dry and
warmer weather to the area. The ridge axis will break to the east
of the area Tuesday night. After that, there are significant model
differences regarding the timing and strength of the next front.
In any case, that system looks to be moderate at best.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Saturday.

Model agreement diminishes on Wednesday with the 12Z ECMWF colder,
wetter, and faster with the arrival of a warm front than the 12Z GFS
or GFS ensemble mean. Based upon the previous run of data and recent
model performance, the forecast still leans toward the ECMWF with
the probability of precipitation south and east of the Umpqua Divide
only nudged a bit lower. For much of southwest Oregon, rain is still
likely on Wednesday.

The trailing cold front is likely to arrive Wednesday evening or
late Wednesday night and continue across our area through Thursday
with a higher probability of widespread rain and snow. The model
trend has been to send the upper trough on more of a southeast
rather than east trajectory. As a result, temperatures and snow
levels for Wednesday night into Thursday have been adjusted
lower...expected to be around 7000 feet ahead of the front then down
to 4000 feet as precipitation tapers to scattered/numerous light
showers/snow showers during Thursday afternoon and evening.

A cold northerly flow with diminishing cloud cover is expected
Thursday night into Friday morning with low temperatures likely to
be a couple to several degrees below normal for most of our area.

A high pressure ridge is likely to bring a warming and drying trend
Friday into Saturday with the storm track pushed northward into
Canada. -DW

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z TAF CYCLE...Mainly VFR conditions will persist
through around 12Z Sunday morning. The exception is local MVFR and
mountain obscuration over the higher terrain west of the Cascades.
A cold front will sweep across the coast early Sunday morning and
weaken as it spreads inland through the day. This will produce gusty
south to southwest low level winds that will be strongest along the
coast with sustained wind as high as 40 knots. It will also bring
increased coverage of MVFR with local IFR over the coastal range.
Precipitation will be mainly light to moderate with locally heavy
amounts in Curry County from late morning into the afternoon. The
freezing level will be around 5000 to 5500 feet MSL. /DW

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Saturday 25 March 2017...Seas are
hovering around 10 feet this afternoon and are expected to remain
around 10 feet overnight. As a result we will maintain the Small
Craft Advisory for Seas into tonight and expand the hazard coverage
closer to shore. Winds for the most part are not expected to be a
concern through this evening; however, a front will move towards the
waters later tonight. South winds will ramp up fairly quickly to
Small Craft Advisory after midnight, then to Gales by Sunday
morning. Steep seas are also expected. The models are in pretty good
agreement pushing the front onshore Sunday evening at which point
winds will decrease and become southwest. However seas will remain
steep through Sunday evening. Seas will decrease Sunday night into
early Monday morning, then a combination of a longer period and
shorter period west swell is due to move in Monday afternoon
resulting in combined seas between 10-13 feet. /FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 6 AM PDT
        Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Hazardous Seas Warning from 6 AM to 5 PM PDT Sunday for
        PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Gale Warning from 6 AM to 5 PM PDT Sunday for
        PZZ350-356-370-376.
     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 2 AM PDT Sunday
        for PZZ350-356-370-376.

15/16/08

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 sneakerwave. Local standard time, as filed.

Sneakerwave, South Central Oregon Coast

When
March 25, 3:00 PM PST to 3:01 PM PST
Where
South Central Oregon Coast forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Newspaper
Coordinates
42.979, -123.829 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A 14 year old female recreating on the beach 3S Bandon died of injuries sustained when a sneaker wave caused a log to roll onto her.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Sneakerwave, South Central Oregon Coast2017-03-2514FemaleIn WaterDirect

What these are

Sneakerwave
An unexpectedly large wave that surged far up a beach and swept people or objects away.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Oregon in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, March 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 678307.