High Wind in California, May 16 to 17, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
256 PM PDT Tue May 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Blustery winds and cooler than normal temperatures
can be expected over the central California interior through
Wednesday evening with a chance of showers over the mountains.
Thursday through the weekend will be dry with a major warming
trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A northwesterly flow aloft is bringing mid and
high cloudiness southward into the CWA this afternoon. The
clouds are associated with a storm system currently over the
Pacific Northwest. As this system tracks slowly southeastward
it will bring some deeper moisture and generally light precip
into the mountains during the next 24 hours, first into the
Sierra by early this evening then southward into the Tehachapi
mountains later tonight and Wednesday. Although this system
sideswipes central California and ends up over the Great Basin,
it will enhance the northwesterly flow aloft over our CWA
during the next 12 to 18 hours. So we should expect breezy
conditions tonight through Wednesday. The strongest winds will
occur over the Sierra crest and in the Kern county mountains
and desert during this time where local gusts of around 70 mph
are possible. The latest high resolution models forecast winds
to remain at or above advisory thresholds below the Kern county
mountain passes into Wednesday evening, so we've extended the
Wind Advisory in this region until 10 pm Wednesday accordingly.
Additionally, the winds could kick up some dust in some locations
on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley as well as the Kern
county desert.  Otherwise, the presence of clouds and good
atmospheric mixing will keep min temperatures a little higher
tonight in the San Joaquin Valley. Upslope regions of our CWA
will likely remain cloudy through Wednesday afternoon where spotty
light rain or drizzle is possible. Above 8,000 feet, local snow
accumulations of up to a few inches may occur between tonight
and midday Wednesday.

The models deepen the storm system over the Great Basin later
this week which in turn will amplify an upper level ridge of
high pressure over the Eastern Pacific. This ridge will
become the dominant player in our weather pattern Thursday
through at least Saturday and bring mostly clear skies and
significantly warmer afternoon temperatures into the central
California interior. High temperatures will be well into the 90s
in the San Joaquin Valley and lower foothills by Saturday, as a
result. Although some retrogression of the upper level ridge
is foreseen in the 5 to 7 day period, dry weather and much above
normal temperatures will likely continue over much of the central
California interior Sunday through next Tuesday. The only
exception will be near the Sierra crest where afternoon cumulus
buildups each of those days could develop into isolated showers.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR with local IFR ceilings and mountain obscurations
can be expected over the Sierra tonight through 00Z Thursday. MVFR
ceilings will develop over the Sierra foothills and the north
facing slopes of the Tehachapi mountains by 09z Wednesday with
local IFR conditions possible in precipitation through 18Z
Wednesday. Additionally, winds gusts of 35 knots or greater are
likely through and below the Kern county mountain passes and along
the Sierra crest through 00Z Thursday. VFR conditions can be
expected elsewhere across the central California during the next
24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PDT Wednesday
CAZ095-098-099.

&&

public...Durfee
avn/fw...Molina
synopsis...Durfee

weather.gov/hanford