Rip Current in Florida, May 16, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
453 PM EDT Tue May 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...
This afternoon through tonight: Latest water vapor imagery shows
a large dome of high pressure ridge dominating the eastern CONUS.
Surface pressure analysis indicates strong surface high pressure
centered over the western Atlantic, a few hundred miles off of the
Carolinas. South Florida, on southern propriety of this feature,
has experienced persistent easterly flow through the day. Winds
have generally been sustained 10 to 15 mph along the east coast
metro region and slightly weaker in the interior. Meanwhile, a
weak Gulf sea breeze has brushed the immediate Gulf Coast.
Moderate to heavy showers with the occasional lightning strikes
have initiated along this boundary line between the two sea
breezes. Short term models, including the HRRR and hi- res WRF
weaken the activity this evening as it pushes westward, over the
Gulf of Mexico. Island banding, noted on NWS radar, has developed
from convergence on the leeward side of Grand Bahama. These
streamer showers and storms will continue drift westward into
Palm Beach county through this evening, but generally dissipate
shortly after hitting land. Model guidance continues to indicate
shower development over the Atlantic coastal waters and adjacent
east coast metro region through tonight.

Wednesday through this weekend: As high pressure establishes
itself near Bermuda by mid to late week, easterly winds will
become breezy, especially along the immediate Atlantic coast.
Both the GFS and ECMWF show moisture from the northern Carribean
and Bahama region slowly creeping north and northwestward into
our CWA. Friday through early this weekend, moisture will further
deepen with the GFS forecast PW reaching over 1.75 inches. Diurnal
heating (generating instability), combined with moistening from
the surface to around 10000 ft agl, will allow for periodic
showers and thunderstorms. As with a typical summer pattern (east
southeast flow), showers will be most likely occur along the east
coast during the nights and early mornings, while shower and
thunderstorms chances will be highest over the interior and Gulf
Coast during the afternoons. This pattern appears to continue
through the weekend and into early next week. Maximum temperatures
will remain around average for this time of year with mid to
upper 80s along the Atlantic coast, to around 90 over the interior
and Gulf Coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Over the next several days, surface high pressure building near
Bermuda will allow for easterly winds to strengthen across the
coastal waters. Thus, small craft should exercise caution through
the rest of the work week. Expect seas building to 3 to 6 feet
along the Gulf Stream and over the Atlantic waters. There will be
a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Atlantic sea breeze has pushed past some of the coastal terminals
including FLL and FXE this afternoon. Shower chances remain at the
other terminals due to the presence of the sea breeze boundary.
Thunderstorms and additional showers may develop inland of the
terminals this afternoon with the westward motion pushing activity
towards the Gulf coast including APF. Overnight, showers will be
possible along the east coast with a brisk easterly flow expected
through the period.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...
Increasing east/southeasterly winds will increase the rip current
risk Moderate through tonight for the Atlantic beaches. Slightly
stronger winds on Wednesday may increase the rip current risk
further to High for the Atlantic beaches. With persistent easterly
flow, an elevated rip current risk may continue well into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  79  86  77  87 /  30  30  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  78  86  79  87 /  40  40  20  30
Miami            77  86  78  88 /  40  40  20  30
Naples           72  91  72  93 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...27/JT
MARINE...27/JT
AVIATION...02/RAG
BEACH FORECAST...27/JT

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
351 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
162000-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
351 AM EDT Tue May 16 2017

...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents for Atlantic Beaches...
...Slight Chance of Thunderstorms Across South Florida Today...

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across South
FLorida today. The threat is forecast to transition to the interior
and Gulf coast by mid to late afternoon. Lightning is the main
threat.

RIP CURRENTS: There is a moderate risk of rip currents for the
Atlantic beaches today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out each afternoon. Lightning
will be the primary threat.

No other hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     20 ESE SOUTH BEACH      25.70N  79.83W
05/16/2017                   AMZ651             FL   AIRPLANE PILOT

            DC3 PILOT 33 MILES SE OF OPF AIRPORT FLYING AT AN
            ALTITUDE OF 3000 FT OBSERVED A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD
            ASSOCIATED WITH A SHOWER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MFL1700150

FISHER