High Wind in California, June 11, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
225 PM PDT Sun Jun 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Potent trough for June will track across the
Great Basin tonight producing very windy conditions through early
Monday morning. There will be a slight chance of showers in central
Nevada and along the eastern Sierra, elsewhere conditions will
remain dry. The system will usher in much cooler temperatures for
Monday. However, temperatures will warm quickly back to normal by
the middle of the week with highs well above normal over the
weekend.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Wednesday night.

Worst of the winds still too come. Window for strongest winds still
looks between 4 pm and 2 am Monday. Surface low in the lee of the
southern Sierra Nevada in Inyo County with analysis showing tightly
packed isobars between the San Joaquin Valley and Death Valley N.P.
Belt of strong H7-H5 winds aloft will slide east across the area
through early Monday morning. Sites just in the lee of N-S mountain
ranges stand the best chance of getting the strongest gusts due to
mountain waves surfacing. A few models suggesting advisory levels
winds may persist past 3 am in California. Will let later shifts
make the determination to extend products or not.

Any moisture with the trough will just graze the southern Sierra and
central Nevada tonight/Monday for a slight chance of showers. Behind
exiting trough, heights start to rise as the Great Basin lies under
a dry northwest-west flow aloft. Well below normal temperatures on
Monday will quickly warm back to normal on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Saturday.

High pressure will build over the southwest Thursday and Friday as
warming trend continues through late in the week. Models begin to
diverge Friday as recent projections indicate a potential trough
developing in the vicinity of the central California coast late this
week into this weekend. The movement and strength of this potential
trough could alter the forecast going into this weekend so have not
made any significant changes to current forecast as confidence
remains low. There is still a chance to see excessive heat this
weekend if ridge remains stagnant across the region and should
continue to be monitored. Currently, forecast remains dry and sunny
Thursday through Saturday with temps 5-10 degrees above seasonal
norms.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Potent area of low pressure for mid-June will
continue to produce gusty winds across southern Nevada and northwest
Arizona through early Monday morning. The period of strongest winds
will occur between 4 pm and 2 am Monday. Humidity values 5-10
percent in the lower deserts, while values will likely range between
10-15 percent in the higher elevation of south central Nevada and
far northwest Arizona. Westerly winds 10-20 mph will continue on
Monday across south Central Nevada while minimum humidity values
will be between 15-20 percent. By late week, temperatures will be
hot with many lower desert valley locations near or exceeding 110
degrees.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...Creeks, streams and rivers along the eastern Sierra
Slopes and Owens Valley of Inyo County are running at their highest
levels this runoff season. Most of the creeks, streams and river
flows have started trending down, this will continue through
Monday, as the forecast calls for much cooler temperatures.
However, warmer temperature are expected from mid-week on, under
the influence of a building ridge, which will bring another round
of increased snowmelt and thus runoff in creeks and streams that
contribute to the Owens River.
&&

.AVIATION...For McCarran...Gusty, southwest winds will continue to
increase into this evening with the highest winds expected between
23z-08z. Highest winds are expected to be around 25-30 knots gusting
near 40 knots. Winds will begin to slowly come down late
tonight/early tomorrow morning. Winds are expected to decrease to 5-
10 knots by mid morning veering around to the south to southwest
around 18z where winds are expected to remain through the late
afternoon.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty, southwest winds will continue to increase into
this evening with highest winds expected between 21z-09z tonight.
Stronger winds will be north and west of I-15 where widespread gusts
of 45-55 mph will be likely. Isolated gusts of 58 mph or greater
will be possible, especially in the higher elevations of this area.
Winds will begin to decrease early tomorrow morning with lighter
winds expected on Monday. Lingering gusty winds out of the west to
northwest will be possible across central Nevada and western San
Bernardino County into Monday night with gusts of 25-35 mph possible.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

Short Term/Fire Weather...Pierce
Aviation/Long Term...Guillet

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