Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, May 27 to 28, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
609 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

.AVIATION...
Low clouds will overspread the area tonight, with most areas
becoming mvfr or even ifr by sunrise. Will be a shot at
precipitation over the north late tonight, as an upper system
passes through. However, at this point, only have VCSH at HRO and
BPK. Over the remainder of the area, confidence is not high enough
for any precipitation probability in the current TAF period.
Ceilings should improve during the morning hours Saturday, with
most areas returning to VFR conditions by mid day. Increasing
pressure gradient will keep winds elevated, with gusts approaching
20 knots after sunrise Saturday.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 249 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Sunday

Southwest flow will continue over Arkansas through the period. The
Lake Wind Advisory will expire at 7 pm...when lighter winds move
into the area. The main forecast focus will be showers and
thunderstorms over the area Saturday into Sunday. A stalled front
just north and west of Arkansas will remain across Missouri,
Oklahoma, and Texas overnight. There will be a slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms north and central tonight. As the front
moves closer to the state instability and moisture will increase
on Saturday. Thunderstorm chances will increase Saturday evening
and overnight. There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms
Saturday night. Damaging winds and large hail are the main
threats...and a few tornadoes can not be ruled out. The cold front
will not move through Arkansas until Sunday...so shower and
thunderstorm chances will continue through Sunday.

LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
No major changes were made to the going long term forecast...except
for some minor tweaks to temps and timing of precipitation on
Sunday. Long term begins with cold front across extreme southeast
Arkansas and precipitation ongoing along the front. Models are
showing an upper level disturbance ride along the front and bring an
additional wave of precipitation late Sunday night. However models
do still vary on exact timing and location of this piece of energy
and it will continue to be monitored in future forecasts.

Lingering precipitation will come to an end on Monday across
southeast Arkansas with high pressure and near zonal flow aloft
moves in over the region. Dry weather and at/slightly above normal
temperatures will continue through Wednesday until the next chance
for precipitation returns to the forecast and continues through the
end of the long term.
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Arkansas-
Bradley-Calhoun-Clark-Cleburne-Cleveland-Conway-Dallas-Desha-
Drew-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Independence-Izard-
Jackson-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lonoke-Monroe-Ouachita-Perry-Prairie-
Pulaski-Saline-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Woodruff.
&&

Aviation...57

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
259 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-271000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
259 PM CDT Fri May 26 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms in the north
Saturday, likely Saturday night. There is an Enhanced Risk
surrounding the Moderate Risk that extends into central and
southwest Arkansas.Severe thunderstorms will become possible
Saturday afternoon and early evening across the
northern/northwestern half of Arkansas. While uncertainty exists on
whether storms can form and become mature...any storm that does form
will have the potential to produce very large hail and damaging
winds. These storms may also be capable of producing a tornado or
two.

As time goes on late Saturday evening into the early morning hours
on Sunday...the potential for seeing more organized thunderstorms
will increase as a cold front drops south towards the state. These
thunderstorms could also become severe...with damaging winds
possible with the strongest storms as this activity looks to form
into a larger...more organized line or complex. Large hail and a few
brief tornadoes will also be possible as this line or complex moves
south across northern Arkansas. Some locally heavy rain may also be
seen...resulting in an isolated flash flood threat.

By Sunday morning...the threat for seeing severe weather will have
decreased...but the cold front will still be dropping south across
the state. Additional thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
afternoon and evening across the southern/southeastern half of the
state as the cold front pushes through this region of Arkansas.
Additional strong to severe thunderstorms may again be possible
during this period.

Calmer and drier conditions will be seen for Monday into Tuesday.
The threat for hazardous weather will then become low.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time. However, please
monitor forecast trends over the holiday weekend.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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