Missouri, 2017

Tornado and Flood in Missouri, May 27, 2017

May 27, 2017 · NWS PAH · 20 events in 10 counties and zones

An organized severe weather outbreak affected southeast Missouri with numerous damaging wind gusts, a few swaths of large hail, and a weak tornado. By the afternoon hours, large amounts of moisture and instability were present, along with plenty of deep-layer wind shear.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
2
Property damage
$193,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
20

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.

An organized severe weather outbreak affected southeast Missouri with numerous damaging wind gusts, a few swaths of large hail, and a weak tornado. By the afternoon hours, large amounts of moisture and instability were present, along with plenty of deep-layer wind shear. As a mid-level disturbance lifted out of the Southern Plains, multiple storm clusters and bowing segments formed across Missouri in a very favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. There was also a supercell thunderstorm in the Ozark foothills during the evening. Dew points were in the lower 70's in many locations in the afternoon, coupled with surface cape values of 3000-4000 j/kg. Boundaries left over from early morning storms also played a role in the placement of afternoon thunderstorm development. Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms impacted the middle Mississippi Valley on the first day of the Memorial Day holiday weekend. There were two or three bowing lines of thunderstorms that impacted the region with damaging winds. Individual cells and clusters also developed early on in the event, producing both large hail and strong winds. Multiple rounds of storms over the same locations also resulted in locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3 inches were observed from Carter County, Missouri east into southern Scott County.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 12:53 PM CST, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 27, 12:53 PM CST, 1 hour 42 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
153 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Rapid adjustments made to reflect current activity across the WFO
PAH Forecast area. Greatest concern at the moment will be the
convective complex moving from East Central Missouri, then along
and remnant outflow/frontal boundaries south of the Interstate 64
corridor...then again along the common borders of Southeast
Missouri, Northeast Arkansas, West Kentucky and Tennessee. |

UPDATE Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Convection is developing along outflow boundaries and existing
warm frontal boundary over Southern Missouri and parts of Southern
Illinois and the Pennyrile of West Kentucky. Some local concern
that some of these storms along the boundary may go severe
severe before the main bowing line (developing derecho?) reaches
the WFO PAH CWA later this afternoon and this evening. Waiting to
see what SPC might do with the MDT risk area in their midday
update. Also added Flash flood Watch for Carter/Ripley counties
from 1 pm today through 7 am Sunday.(see hydro section).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

New SWODY1 outlooks moderate risk for much of FA this pm/evening,
with all svr wx hazards possible. AM storms to our west are
modeled to affect western ptns FA later this morning, and may lay
out a boundary and also blow off debris clouds that could stall
development after daybreak. However, differential heating should
mix the atmos up enough to allow super charge to take place, with
high cape environ and steep mid level lapse rates revealed by
model soundings. At some point during the pm hours, cap should
break and convection become numerous to widespread, with
associated moderate risk of svr extending from late pm into/thru
the evening hours. Svr chances begin to diminish overnight as
large scale instability is lost the farther east storms push away
from source boundary/energy.

Primary cold front does not make actual passage until Sunday
evening, so until then, we'll be continuing pops along/ahead of
the boundary, and this includes a continued slight risk of severe
again for mainly Sunday afternoon/early evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

The extended period continues to be troublesome with models flip
flopping the best chances for rain. Still dealing with another
frontal boundary passage on Tuesday/Tuesday night. The GFS has
been the most consistent with the timing of this feature but not
as much on QPF. Still, believe that precip chances need to be
included for that time frame given the consistency of this signal
and the consistency of the GFS ensemble precip means. At this time
our confidence does not warrant anything more than slight
chances.

The ECMWF was never that excited about Tuesday's rain prospects and
still isn't. Instead, the 12Z ECMWF brings a front down into the
area on Wednesday through Thursday. That is the exact same time that
the GFS brings in a reinforcing sfc high pressure system that dries
us out. However, the 00Z ECMWF is back to looking like the GFS with
the drier weather on Wednesday with the incoming sfc high. The early
part of the extended forecast is going to be hinged on exactly what
this large upper level low over the upper Great Lakes region/eastern
Canada does and the timing and strength of impulses rotating around
it. For now, leaning toward the more consistent GFS for guidance.

Given the above discussion, POPs will be low Tuesday through
Thursday given uncertainty's in the model signals. There has been
a stronger signal for more wet weather as we head into the latter
half of the week. However, the upper level pattern is not being
consistently resoled by the models very well at all. Yesterdays
runs indicated more of a southwesterly flow pattern setting up and
now the upper flow stays more west northwesterly through Friday.
We will continue to have POPs for late week, but work will need to
be done on fine tuning these chances as models grasp a better
handle on things.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017

Current 18z Saturday TAF issuance will be a challenge with mutiple
boundaries focusing VFR to IFR changing conditions. Base forecast
includes thunderstorms in each TAF location. Main concern within
the next six ho9urs will be the KEVV, KCGI, and KPAH TAF locations
for lowered visibility.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017

WPC recently upgraded parts of Southern Missouri in a Moderate
Risk of excessive rainfall through today and tonight. Given the
antecedent rainfall this morning, combined with the expected
position of the frontal boundary and outflows today, felt it was
prudent to add Carter and Ripley counties to the Flash Flood Watch
later this afternoon and tonight.

Depending on the propagation of the convection along the boundary
and the southern end of the expected wind-damaging MCS, may need
to extend the Flash Flood Watch to Wayne and Butler counties as
well. Will monitor the progression of the storms this afternoon.

Minimum rainfall of 1-1.25 inches is likely...with higher amounts
possible. Given the flashy nature of runoff and the terrain, as
well as the potential for higher public presence outdoors this
weekend, decided to go ahead with a Flash Flood Watch for Carter
and Ripley counties from 1 pm today through 7 am Sunday.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ107-108.

IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith
HYDROLOGY...Smith
Hazardous weather outlook, May 27, 1:55 PM CST, 40 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
255 pm CDT Sat May 27 2017

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
255 pm CDT Sat May 27 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Latest forecast trends indicate that an intense line of severe
thunderstorms will move into the northwest part of the outlook area,
namely southwest Illinois and Southeast Missouri, this afternoon and
again this evening. If a line of storms move through the area, they
will likely produce widespread wind gusts in excess of 80 mph. The
damaging winds could last up to an hour.

Depending on the intensity and duration of these lines of severe
storms, most of the thunderstorms could completely move through the
outlook area by midnight.

In addition to the damaging wind potential, isolated severe storms
may develop ahead of these lines of thunderstorms today and tonight.
These isolated storms would have the potential for large hail,
damaging winds, as well as a tornado.

At this time, the greatest risk for widespread severe thunderstorms
is later this afternoon and this evening. Heavy rainfall and deadly
lightning will also be storm hazards. Flash Flooding may also be a
possibility in parts of Southeast Missouri late this afternoon and
tonight.

A moderate risk remains is in place for most of the outlook area,
except parts of Southwest Indiana and a very small part of northwest
Kentucky. The remainder of the outlook area remains in an enhanced
risk of severe thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast Sunday,
especially during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds
and hail are the primary severe weather hazards, with locally
heavy rain and deadly lightning also storm hazards.

Thunderstorms are also forecast Tuesday afternoon, and Wednesday
through Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected today and tonight.

Smith

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 27, 1:48 PM CST, 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     HAIL             MCLEANSBORO             38.09N 88.53W
05/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       HAMILTON           IL   PUBLIC

&&

SP
Local storm report, May 27, 2:09 PM CST, 26 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     HAIL             1 N MCLEANSBORO         38.11N 88.53W
05/27/2017  M1.75 INCH       HAMILTON           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SP
Local storm report, May 27, 2:22 PM CST, 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
322 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     HAIL             WICKLIFFE               36.97N 89.08W
05/27/2017  M1.00 INCH       BALLARD            KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SP
Local storm report, May 27, 2:33 PM CST, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MURPHYSBORO             37.77N 89.34W
05/27/2017                   JACKSON            IL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE DOWN AT CORNER OF SPRUCE AND 20TH STREET

&&

SP
Local storm report, May 27, 2:35 PM CST, 0 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0328 PM     HAIL             CROSSVILLE              38.16N 88.06W
05/27/2017  M0.88 INCH       WHITE              IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

SP

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 80 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:33 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

9 thunderstorm wind, 9 hail, 1 flood, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Cape Girardeau

When
May 27, 2:35 PM CST
Where
Cape Girardeau County, Neelys Lndg
Measured
52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$2,000
Reported by
Law Enforcement
Coordinates
37.500, -89.500

Power lines were down on County Road 525.

Hail, Cape Girardeau

When
May 27, 2:45 PM CST
Where
Cape Girardeau County, 3 mi ESE of Pocahontas
Measured
0.75 in hail
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
37.483, -89.599

Hail, Mississippi

When
May 27, 3:15 PM CST
Where
Mississippi County, Bertrand
Measured
1 in hail
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
36.920, -89.430

A trained spotter reported nickel to quarter-size hail.

Hail, Wayne

When
May 27, 3:47 PM CST
Where
Wayne County, 4 mi SSE of Piedmont
Measured
2.75 in hail
Reported by
Social Media
Coordinates
37.117, -90.692

Baseball-size hail was photographed and relayed via social media.

Hail, Bollinger

When
May 27, 3:55 PM CST
Where
Bollinger County, 3 mi N of Marble Hill
Measured
1 in hail
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
37.343, -89.970

Thunderstorm Wind, Carter

When
May 27, 4:05 PM CST
Where
Carter County, Van Buren
Measured
61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$5,000
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
37.000, -91.020

Several trees were blown down around town. Power was out to several homes and businesses, including the county sheriff department.

Thunderstorm Wind, Wayne

When
May 27, 4:15 PM CST
Where
Wayne County, Greenville to 3 mi SE of Greenville
Measured
61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust
Injuries
2 direct, 0 indirect
Property damage
$60,000
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
37.130, -90.470

Multiple trees were uprooted on D Highway a few miles southeast of Greenville. One vehicle was struck by a falling tree, with minor injuries. Multiple trees were down in a campground. In Greenville, trees and power lines were down.

Thunderstorm Wind, Bollinger

When
May 27, 4:22 PM CST
Where
Bollinger County, 2 mi S of Marble Hill
Measured
56 kt (64 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$4,000
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
37.271, -89.970

Roof shingles were damaged.

Thunderstorm Wind, Cape Girardeau

When
May 27, 4:33 PM CST to 4:43 PM CST
Where
Cape Girardeau County, Jackson to 8 mi ESE of Pocahontas
Measured
52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$5,000
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
37.380, -89.670

Large tree limbs and branches were blown down in Jackson. In the far eastern part of the county near Trail of Tears State Park, a large tree was blown across the road and large limbs were down.

Thunderstorm Wind, Perry

When
May 27, 4:35 PM CST to 4:45 PM CST
Where
Perry County, Perryville to Crosstown
Measured
61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$7,000
Reported by
Law Enforcement
Coordinates
37.720, -89.870

Power lines were snapped, and trees were down across the county. In Perryville, wind gusts were estimated by law enforcement near 60 mph. In Crosstown, a trained spotter estimated winds gusted to 60 mph.

Thunderstorm Wind, Stoddard

When
May 27, 4:45 PM CST
Where
Stoddard County, Dexter
Measured
70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust
Property damage
$65,000
Reported by
Fire Department/Rescue
Coordinates
36.800, -89.950

Roofs were blown off a movie theater and car wash. Several homes in the same area sustained roof damage.

Hail, Scott

When
May 27, 5:00 PM CST
Where
Scott County, 1.25 mi WSW of Sikeston Holyfld Arp
Measured
1 in hail
Reported by
Amateur Radio
Coordinates
36.962, -89.550

Thunderstorm Wind, Scott

When
May 27, 5:00 PM CST
Where
Scott County, 1.25 mi WSW of Sikeston Holyfld Arp
Measured
78 kt (90 mph) measured gust
Property damage
$5,000
Reported by
Amateur Radio
Coordinates
36.963, -89.551

An amateur radio operator measured a wind gust to 90 mph for about 20 seconds. Some shingles were blown off a nearby house. The anemometer height was about 80 feet above ground level.

Thunderstorm Wind, Mississippi

When
May 27, 5:26 PM CST
Where
Mississippi County, 5.56 mi S of Wolf Is
Measured
57 kt (66 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
36.670, -89.210

A wind gust to 66 mph was measured at a CWOP (Citizen Weather Observer Program) station near the Mississippi River southeast of East Prairie.

Flood, Scott

When
May 27, 6:10 PM CST to 7:10 PM CST
Where
Scott County, Sikeston to 1.14 mi WNW of Sikeston
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Unknown
Coordinates
36.880, -89.580

Street flooding was reported in the Sikeston area.

Hail, Carter

When
May 27, 6:40 PM CST
Where
Carter County, Eastwood
Measured
2 in hail
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
36.900, -91.030

The hail was slightly larger than golf balls. This same storm continued east, producing large hail near Ellsinore farther along its path.

Hail, Carter

When
May 27, 6:58 PM CST to 7:05 PM CST
Where
Carter County, 3 mi NE of Hunter to Ellsinore
Measured
1 in hail
Reported by
Trained Spotter
Coordinates
36.911, -90.812

A swath of large hail extended from west to east across parts of the county. Quarter-size hail was reported on Highway 21 near U.S. Highway 60, between Hunter and Ellsinore. Quarter-size hail occurred on U.S. Highway 60 near Ellsinore.

Tornado, Butler

When
May 27, 7:18 PM CST to 7:22 PM CST
Where
Butler County, 5.2 mi ENE of Stringtown to 4.19 mi SW of Hillard
Rating
EF0
Path length
1.85 mi
Path width
85 yd
Property damage
$40,000
Reported by
NWS Storm Survey
Coordinates
36.791, -90.501

The tornado began near the intersection of Highway PP and County Road 429 in the Mark Twain National Forest. The tornado was on the ground for four minutes. It lifted before crossing U.S. Highway 67 west of Poplar Bluff. Several trees were uprooted, and numerous limbs were broken. At least two homes received minor damage due to falling trees. At least six homes received shingle damage. Peak winds were estimated near 85 mph. A trained spotter witnessed the funnel in the area. This tornado was from the same supercell storm that produced large hail from the Ellsinore area of Carter County to areas north of Poplar Bluff.

Hail, Butler

When
May 27, 7:20 PM CST to 7:35 PM CST
Where
Butler County, 7 mi NW of Poplar Bluff to 2 mi NE of Poplar Bluff
Measured
1.75 in hail
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
36.822, -90.490

A swath of large hail accompanied a supercell thunderstorm across Butler County. Hailstones ranging from the size of ping-pong balls to golf balls were reported northwest through northeast of Poplar Bluff.

Hail, New Madrid

When
May 27, 7:50 PM CST
Where
New Madrid County, Parma
Measured
1.25 in hail
Reported by
Broadcast Media
Coordinates
36.620, -89.820

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind
Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
Hail
Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.
Tornado
A violently rotating column of air in contact with the ground and extending from a thunderstorm, filed with its path, width and Fujita or Enhanced Fujita rating from the damage survey.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Missouri in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Missouri, 2017Warnings in Missouri, May 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 692464, 692446, 692447, 692450, 692451, 692466, 692468, 692475, 692470, 692472, 692476, 698972, 698975, 692477, 694275, 692452, 692454, 692459, 692456, 692458.