Missouri, 2017Tornado and Flood in Missouri, May 27, 2017
May 27, 2017 · NWS PAH · 20 events in 10 counties and zones
An organized severe weather outbreak affected southeast Missouri with numerous damaging wind gusts, a few swaths of large hail, and a weak tornado. By the afternoon hours, large amounts of moisture and instability were present, along with plenty of deep-layer wind shear.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 2
- Property damage
- $193,000
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 20
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
An organized severe weather outbreak affected southeast Missouri with numerous damaging wind gusts, a few swaths of large hail, and a weak tornado. By the afternoon hours, large amounts of moisture and instability were present, along with plenty of deep-layer wind shear. As a mid-level disturbance lifted out of the Southern Plains, multiple storm clusters and bowing segments formed across Missouri in a very favorable environment for severe thunderstorms. There was also a supercell thunderstorm in the Ozark foothills during the evening. Dew points were in the lower 70's in many locations in the afternoon, coupled with surface cape values of 3000-4000 j/kg. Boundaries left over from early morning storms also played a role in the placement of afternoon thunderstorm development. Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms impacted the middle Mississippi Valley on the first day of the Memorial Day holiday weekend. There were two or three bowing lines of thunderstorms that impacted the region with damaging winds. Individual cells and clusters also developed early on in the event, producing both large hail and strong winds. Multiple rounds of storms over the same locations also resulted in locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals of 1.5 to 3 inches were observed from Carter County, Missouri east into southern Scott County.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 12:53 PM CST, 1 hour 42 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 27, 12:53 PM CST, 1 hour 42 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
153 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017
.UPDATE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017
Rapid adjustments made to reflect current activity across the WFO
PAH Forecast area. Greatest concern at the moment will be the
convective complex moving from East Central Missouri, then along
and remnant outflow/frontal boundaries south of the Interstate 64
corridor...then again along the common borders of Southeast
Missouri, Northeast Arkansas, West Kentucky and Tennessee. |
UPDATE Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017
Convection is developing along outflow boundaries and existing
warm frontal boundary over Southern Missouri and parts of Southern
Illinois and the Pennyrile of West Kentucky. Some local concern
that some of these storms along the boundary may go severe
severe before the main bowing line (developing derecho?) reaches
the WFO PAH CWA later this afternoon and this evening. Waiting to
see what SPC might do with the MDT risk area in their midday
update. Also added Flash flood Watch for Carter/Ripley counties
from 1 pm today through 7 am Sunday.(see hydro section).
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017
New SWODY1 outlooks moderate risk for much of FA this pm/evening,
with all svr wx hazards possible. AM storms to our west are
modeled to affect western ptns FA later this morning, and may lay
out a boundary and also blow off debris clouds that could stall
development after daybreak. However, differential heating should
mix the atmos up enough to allow super charge to take place, with
high cape environ and steep mid level lapse rates revealed by
model soundings. At some point during the pm hours, cap should
break and convection become numerous to widespread, with
associated moderate risk of svr extending from late pm into/thru
the evening hours. Svr chances begin to diminish overnight as
large scale instability is lost the farther east storms push away
from source boundary/energy.
Primary cold front does not make actual passage until Sunday
evening, so until then, we'll be continuing pops along/ahead of
the boundary, and this includes a continued slight risk of severe
again for mainly Sunday afternoon/early evening.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 134 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017
The extended period continues to be troublesome with models flip
flopping the best chances for rain. Still dealing with another
frontal boundary passage on Tuesday/Tuesday night. The GFS has
been the most consistent with the timing of this feature but not
as much on QPF. Still, believe that precip chances need to be
included for that time frame given the consistency of this signal
and the consistency of the GFS ensemble precip means. At this time
our confidence does not warrant anything more than slight
chances.
The ECMWF was never that excited about Tuesday's rain prospects and
still isn't. Instead, the 12Z ECMWF brings a front down into the
area on Wednesday through Thursday. That is the exact same time that
the GFS brings in a reinforcing sfc high pressure system that dries
us out. However, the 00Z ECMWF is back to looking like the GFS with
the drier weather on Wednesday with the incoming sfc high. The early
part of the extended forecast is going to be hinged on exactly what
this large upper level low over the upper Great Lakes region/eastern
Canada does and the timing and strength of impulses rotating around
it. For now, leaning toward the more consistent GFS for guidance.
Given the above discussion, POPs will be low Tuesday through
Thursday given uncertainty's in the model signals. There has been
a stronger signal for more wet weather as we head into the latter
half of the week. However, the upper level pattern is not being
consistently resoled by the models very well at all. Yesterdays
runs indicated more of a southwesterly flow pattern setting up and
now the upper flow stays more west northwesterly through Friday.
We will continue to have POPs for late week, but work will need to
be done on fine tuning these chances as models grasp a better
handle on things.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017
Current 18z Saturday TAF issuance will be a challenge with mutiple
boundaries focusing VFR to IFR changing conditions. Base forecast
includes thunderstorms in each TAF location. Main concern within
the next six ho9urs will be the KEVV, KCGI, and KPAH TAF locations
for lowered visibility.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat May 27 2017
WPC recently upgraded parts of Southern Missouri in a Moderate
Risk of excessive rainfall through today and tonight. Given the
antecedent rainfall this morning, combined with the expected
position of the frontal boundary and outflows today, felt it was
prudent to add Carter and Ripley counties to the Flash Flood Watch
later this afternoon and tonight.
Depending on the propagation of the convection along the boundary
and the southern end of the expected wind-damaging MCS, may need
to extend the Flash Flood Watch to Wayne and Butler counties as
well. Will monitor the progression of the storms this afternoon.
Minimum rainfall of 1-1.25 inches is likely...with higher amounts
possible. Given the flashy nature of runoff and the terrain, as
well as the potential for higher public presence outdoors this
weekend, decided to go ahead with a Flash Flood Watch for Carter
and Ripley counties from 1 pm today through 7 am Sunday.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for MOZ107-108.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
UPDATE...Smith
AVIATION...Smith
HYDROLOGY...Smith
Hazardous weather outlook, May 27, 1:55 PM CST, 40 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
255 pm CDT Sat May 27 2017
ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-281000-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
255 pm CDT Sat May 27 2017
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
Latest forecast trends indicate that an intense line of severe
thunderstorms will move into the northwest part of the outlook area,
namely southwest Illinois and Southeast Missouri, this afternoon and
again this evening. If a line of storms move through the area, they
will likely produce widespread wind gusts in excess of 80 mph. The
damaging winds could last up to an hour.
Depending on the intensity and duration of these lines of severe
storms, most of the thunderstorms could completely move through the
outlook area by midnight.
In addition to the damaging wind potential, isolated severe storms
may develop ahead of these lines of thunderstorms today and tonight.
These isolated storms would have the potential for large hail,
damaging winds, as well as a tornado.
At this time, the greatest risk for widespread severe thunderstorms
is later this afternoon and this evening. Heavy rainfall and deadly
lightning will also be storm hazards. Flash Flooding may also be a
possibility in parts of Southeast Missouri late this afternoon and
tonight.
A moderate risk remains is in place for most of the outlook area,
except parts of Southwest Indiana and a very small part of northwest
Kentucky. The remainder of the outlook area remains in an enhanced
risk of severe thunderstorms.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday
A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast Sunday,
especially during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds
and hail are the primary severe weather hazards, with locally
heavy rain and deadly lightning also storm hazards.
Thunderstorms are also forecast Tuesday afternoon, and Wednesday
through Friday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is expected today and tonight.
Smith
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 27, 1:48 PM CST, 47 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
248 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0242 PM HAIL MCLEANSBORO 38.09N 88.53W
05/27/2017 E1.00 INCH HAMILTON IL PUBLIC
&&
SPLocal storm report, May 27, 2:09 PM CST, 26 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
309 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0253 PM HAIL 1 N MCLEANSBORO 38.11N 88.53W
05/27/2017 M1.75 INCH HAMILTON IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
SPLocal storm report, May 27, 2:22 PM CST, 13 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
322 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0320 PM HAIL WICKLIFFE 36.97N 89.08W
05/27/2017 M1.00 INCH BALLARD KY TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
SPLocal storm report, May 27, 2:33 PM CST, 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
333 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0320 PM TSTM WND DMG MURPHYSBORO 37.77N 89.34W
05/27/2017 JACKSON IL BROADCAST MEDIA
TREE DOWN AT CORNER OF SPRUCE AND 20TH STREET
&&
SPLocal storm report, May 27, 2:35 PM CST, 0 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
335 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2017
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0328 PM HAIL CROSSVILLE 38.16N 88.06W
05/27/2017 M0.88 INCH WHITE IL TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
SPEvent by event
9 thunderstorm wind, 9 hail, 1 flood, 1 tornado. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm Wind, Cape Girardeau
- When
- May 27, 2:35 PM CST
- Where
- Cape Girardeau County, Neelys Lndg
- Measured
- 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
- Property damage
- $2,000
- Reported by
- Law Enforcement
- Coordinates
- 37.500, -89.500
Power lines were down on County Road 525.
Hail, Cape Girardeau
- When
- May 27, 2:45 PM CST
- Where
- Cape Girardeau County, 3 mi ESE of Pocahontas
- Measured
- 0.75 in hail
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
- Coordinates
- 37.483, -89.599
Hail, Mississippi
- When
- May 27, 3:15 PM CST
- Where
- Mississippi County, Bertrand
- Measured
- 1 in hail
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
- Coordinates
- 36.920, -89.430
A trained spotter reported nickel to quarter-size hail.
Hail, Wayne
- When
- May 27, 3:47 PM CST
- Where
- Wayne County, 4 mi SSE of Piedmont
- Measured
- 2.75 in hail
- Reported by
- Social Media
- Coordinates
- 37.117, -90.692
Baseball-size hail was photographed and relayed via social media.
Hail, Bollinger
- When
- May 27, 3:55 PM CST
- Where
- Bollinger County, 3 mi N of Marble Hill
- Measured
- 1 in hail
- Reported by
- Emergency Manager
- Coordinates
- 37.343, -89.970
Thunderstorm Wind, Carter
- When
- May 27, 4:05 PM CST
- Where
- Carter County, Van Buren
- Measured
- 61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust
- Property damage
- $5,000
- Reported by
- Emergency Manager
- Coordinates
- 37.000, -91.020
Several trees were blown down around town. Power was out to several homes and businesses, including the county sheriff department.
Thunderstorm Wind, Wayne
- When
- May 27, 4:15 PM CST
- Where
- Wayne County, Greenville to 3 mi SE of Greenville
- Measured
- 61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust
- Injuries
- 2 direct, 0 indirect
- Property damage
- $60,000
- Reported by
- Emergency Manager
- Coordinates
- 37.130, -90.470
Multiple trees were uprooted on D Highway a few miles southeast of Greenville. One vehicle was struck by a falling tree, with minor injuries. Multiple trees were down in a campground. In Greenville, trees and power lines were down.
Thunderstorm Wind, Bollinger
- When
- May 27, 4:22 PM CST
- Where
- Bollinger County, 2 mi S of Marble Hill
- Measured
- 56 kt (64 mph) estimated gust
- Property damage
- $4,000
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
- Coordinates
- 37.271, -89.970
Roof shingles were damaged.
Thunderstorm Wind, Cape Girardeau
- When
- May 27, 4:33 PM CST to 4:43 PM CST
- Where
- Cape Girardeau County, Jackson to 8 mi ESE of Pocahontas
- Measured
- 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
- Property damage
- $5,000
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
- Coordinates
- 37.380, -89.670
Large tree limbs and branches were blown down in Jackson. In the far eastern part of the county near Trail of Tears State Park, a large tree was blown across the road and large limbs were down.
Thunderstorm Wind, Perry
- When
- May 27, 4:35 PM CST to 4:45 PM CST
- Where
- Perry County, Perryville to Crosstown
- Measured
- 61 kt (70 mph) estimated gust
- Property damage
- $7,000
- Reported by
- Law Enforcement
- Coordinates
- 37.720, -89.870
Power lines were snapped, and trees were down across the county. In Perryville, wind gusts were estimated by law enforcement near 60 mph. In Crosstown, a trained spotter estimated winds gusted to 60 mph.
Thunderstorm Wind, Stoddard
- When
- May 27, 4:45 PM CST
- Where
- Stoddard County, Dexter
- Measured
- 70 kt (81 mph) estimated gust
- Property damage
- $65,000
- Reported by
- Fire Department/Rescue
- Coordinates
- 36.800, -89.950
Roofs were blown off a movie theater and car wash. Several homes in the same area sustained roof damage.
Hail, Scott
- When
- May 27, 5:00 PM CST
- Where
- Scott County, 1.25 mi WSW of Sikeston Holyfld Arp
- Measured
- 1 in hail
- Reported by
- Amateur Radio
- Coordinates
- 36.962, -89.550
Thunderstorm Wind, Scott
- When
- May 27, 5:00 PM CST
- Where
- Scott County, 1.25 mi WSW of Sikeston Holyfld Arp
- Measured
- 78 kt (90 mph) measured gust
- Property damage
- $5,000
- Reported by
- Amateur Radio
- Coordinates
- 36.963, -89.551
An amateur radio operator measured a wind gust to 90 mph for about 20 seconds. Some shingles were blown off a nearby house. The anemometer height was about 80 feet above ground level.
Thunderstorm Wind, Mississippi
- When
- May 27, 5:26 PM CST
- Where
- Mississippi County, 5.56 mi S of Wolf Is
- Measured
- 57 kt (66 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Public
- Coordinates
- 36.670, -89.210
A wind gust to 66 mph was measured at a CWOP (Citizen Weather Observer Program) station near the Mississippi River southeast of East Prairie.
Flood, Scott
- When
- May 27, 6:10 PM CST to 7:10 PM CST
- Where
- Scott County, Sikeston to 1.14 mi WNW of Sikeston
- Cause
- Heavy Rain
- Reported by
- Unknown
- Coordinates
- 36.880, -89.580
Street flooding was reported in the Sikeston area.
Hail, Carter
- When
- May 27, 6:40 PM CST
- Where
- Carter County, Eastwood
- Measured
- 2 in hail
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
- Coordinates
- 36.900, -91.030
The hail was slightly larger than golf balls. This same storm continued east, producing large hail near Ellsinore farther along its path.
Hail, Carter
- When
- May 27, 6:58 PM CST to 7:05 PM CST
- Where
- Carter County, 3 mi NE of Hunter to Ellsinore
- Measured
- 1 in hail
- Reported by
- Trained Spotter
- Coordinates
- 36.911, -90.812
A swath of large hail extended from west to east across parts of the county. Quarter-size hail was reported on Highway 21 near U.S. Highway 60, between Hunter and Ellsinore. Quarter-size hail occurred on U.S. Highway 60 near Ellsinore.
Tornado, Butler
- When
- May 27, 7:18 PM CST to 7:22 PM CST
- Where
- Butler County, 5.2 mi ENE of Stringtown to 4.19 mi SW of Hillard
- Rating
- EF0
- Path length
- 1.85 mi
- Path width
- 85 yd
- Property damage
- $40,000
- Reported by
- NWS Storm Survey
- Coordinates
- 36.791, -90.501
The tornado began near the intersection of Highway PP and County Road 429 in the Mark Twain National Forest. The tornado was on the ground for four minutes. It lifted before crossing U.S. Highway 67 west of Poplar Bluff. Several trees were uprooted, and numerous limbs were broken. At least two homes received minor damage due to falling trees. At least six homes received shingle damage. Peak winds were estimated near 85 mph. A trained spotter witnessed the funnel in the area. This tornado was from the same supercell storm that produced large hail from the Ellsinore area of Carter County to areas north of Poplar Bluff.
Hail, Butler
- When
- May 27, 7:20 PM CST to 7:35 PM CST
- Where
- Butler County, 7 mi NW of Poplar Bluff to 2 mi NE of Poplar Bluff
- Measured
- 1.75 in hail
- Reported by
- Emergency Manager
- Coordinates
- 36.822, -90.490
A swath of large hail accompanied a supercell thunderstorm across Butler County. Hailstones ranging from the size of ping-pong balls to golf balls were reported northwest through northeast of Poplar Bluff.
Hail, New Madrid
- When
- May 27, 7:50 PM CST
- Where
- New Madrid County, Parma
- Measured
- 1.25 in hail
- Reported by
- Broadcast Media
- Coordinates
- 36.620, -89.820
- Thunderstorm Wind
- Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
- Hail
- Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
- Flood
- Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.
- Tornado
- A violently rotating column of air in contact with the ground and extending from a thunderstorm, filed with its path, width and Fujita or Enhanced Fujita rating from the damage survey.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Tennessee, May 27, 2017$2.0 million · 2.25 in hail · 62 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Tennessee, May 27, 2017$10 million · 1 in hail · 24 events
- Heat in Washington, May 27, 20171 death · 1 event
- Tornadoes and Hail in Oklahoma, May 27 to 28, 2017$397,000 · EF1 · 60 events
- Damaging Winds in Mississippi, May 27 to 28, 2017$1.2 million · 60 kt wind · 20 events
- Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Oklahoma, May 27 to 28, 20171 injured · $45,000 · 4 in hail · 66 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, May 27, 2017$605,000 · 1 in hail · 12 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, May 27 to 28, 2017$216,000 · 2 in hail · 25 events
- Flash Flooding and Hail in Kentucky, May 27, 2017$200,000 · 1 in hail · 23 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, May 27, 2017$142,000 · 1.85 in hail · 30 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Illinois, May 27, 2017$182,000 · 1.75 in hail · 11 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Alabama, May 27 to 28, 2017$20,000 · 1 in hail · 51 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 692464, 692446, 692447, 692450, 692451, 692466, 692468, 692475, 692470, 692472, 692476, 698972, 698975, 692477, 694275, 692452, 692454, 692459, 692456, 692458.