Arkansas, 2017

Flash Flood and Hail in Arkansas, April 17 to 21, 2017

April 17 to 21, 2017 · NWS LZK · 5 events in 4 counties and zones

Heavy rain was noted on 4/17/2017 which caused flash flooding in Pulaski county. The weather pattern featured a front stalled across Arkansas, with areas of heavy rain/scattered thunderstorms to the north of the front as a storm system approached from the southern Plains on 04/21/2017.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.

Heavy rain was noted on 4/17/2017 which caused flash flooding in Pulaski county. The weather pattern featured a front stalled across Arkansas, with areas of heavy rain/scattered thunderstorms to the north of the front as a storm system approached from the southern Plains on 04/21/2017. The system and associated precipitation exited to the east the next day.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 17, 7:10 PM CST, 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 17, 7:10 PM CST, 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
810 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

.UPDATE...

Areas of precipitation developed over central Arkansas during the
past few hours but are already showing some signs of dissipating.
A subtle upper level feature can be made out just to the north of
the metro based on the way the precipitation is moving around it
and aided by a frontal boundary draped across central Arkansas.

Pops updated for this increase in precipitation and then adjusted
downward for tonight as daytime heating wanes and front continues
to sag to the south. Will hold onto patchy fog tonight but if
skies do clear out more than expected,this will likely lead to
dense fog formation. Temperatures and dew points also tweaked
based on current trends. All updates out.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 644 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017)

AVIATION...

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across
mainly central sections but are expected to dissipate in the next
few hours. Weak high pressure will build over the area with
generally light winds expected. As such, fog will develop at most
terminals overnight. MVFR conditions will predominate through most
of the period with occasional IFR ceilings and visibility towards
morning. Conditions will improve Tuesday afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 301 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017
)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Wednesday Night

Regional radars show areas of very light rain falling from far
northeast Arkansas back to the southwest across north central
Arkansas and ending near Danville. There were some heavier
isolated showers near Mountain Home and scattered thunderstorms
were still ongoing over far southeast Arkansas. Water vapor
satellite imagery showed a couple of strong shortwave troughs with
one over the northern CONUS Rockies and the second over northern
Mexico moving towards deep south Texas. Imagery over Arkansas was
cluttered with convective debris with no obvious shortwave trough
or ridge over the state.

For tonight...raw model output indicates that scattered showers
and thunderstorms will redevelop over parts of northern and
central Arkansas by this evening with some persisting through
midnight. Kept some low POPs in the forecast to account for
this...but this solution seems a bit aggressive for model guidance
with short term infrared and visible satellite imagery showing
little evidence of lift/cooling cloud tops in this area. However
cloud cover from earlier storms makes a high confidence diagnosis
difficult so kept a 20 to 30 percent chance of rain in the
forecast for most areas this evening and overnight.

By early Tuesday morning...most model guidance agrees that a weak
area of high pressure at the surface will build over the state
allowing winds to calm and causing precipitation chances to
diminish towards zero for the northern and central portions of the
state. This weak area of high pressure is expected to remain along
the AR/MO border as it moves east...bringing a weak frontal
boundary over southern Arkansas. This boundary may provide a
source of weak isentropic lift and frontogenetic forcing from
tonight through Tuesday afternoon...so left a small chance of rain
in the forecast across southern Arkansas to account for this lift.
Across northern and central Arkansas...high pressure will result
in nearly calm winds...which may lead to patchy...dense fog around
sunrise. Went ahead with some patchy fog in the forecast to
account for this...but may have to increase dense fog coverage and
consider a dense fog advisory if clouds clear out more than
expected.

For Tuesday afternoon...with the weak frontal boundary in place...
models are once again advertising convection across southern
Arkansas. If the boundary is diffuse this may not pan out. Without
any true upper level support or lift to speak of...kept the
forecast on the lower side of guidance and only went with 20 to 30
POPs for most locations. Weak winds aloft should keep any threat
of severe weather out of the forecast on Tuesday if thunderstorms
develop across the southern portion of the state.

Wednesday...As upper level troughing gets stronger over the
northwestern CONUS...weak ridging aloft is expected over Arkansas
on Wednesday. The boundary over southern Arkansas is expected to
be completely dissipated by that time...and with weak ridging
aloft expect conditions to remain dry. Highs on Wednesday are
expected to climb into the lower to mid 80s for most areas
Wednesday afternoon...but will remain cooler on Tuesday due to
cloud cover holding in place for much of the day.

Cavanaugh

LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

Primary focus during the extended term will be on a frontal boundary
that will drop down and stall out across the area. Models are in
fairly good agreement on bringing the front down into the NW part of
the state early Thursday, and slowly bringing it down across the
area through Friday morning. Exactly how far south the boundary will
get remains questionable; GFS generally wants to bring it well into
south AR, while the Canadian model, for example, only brings it into
central AR.

Regardless, the frontal boundary will be a focal point for
convection. By late Friday into early Saturday a surface low will
take shape over the southern Plains, and will move the boundary back
to the north. Behind the surface low another, stronger cold front
will sweep into the state from the west and northwest.

Depending on the location of the low, the timing of the system, and
just how far the warm front moves north - this could present a set
up for severe weather across the area on Saturday.

Above the surface the models bring a fairly vigorous upper low
across the northern AR / southern MO area. In some model runs it
appears that a broad portion of the area could end up under the left
exit region of the jet, which would further the chances of severe
weather.

After the upper low passes and the surface high settles in, a
meridional flow pattern will set in place across the region. This
should set up the area for daily highs in the 60's to lower 70's
from Sunday thru Tuesday, with overnight lows returning to the 40's
and 50's.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

56
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 17, 4:40 PM CST, 3 hours 25 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook...updated
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
540 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2017

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Newton-Searcy-Stone-Izard-
Independence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-Jackson-Logan-Conway-
Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-Polk-Montgomery-Garland-
Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-
Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-
Bradley-Drew-
540 PM CDT Tue Apr 18 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorm continue across parts of the
state at this time but severe weather is not expected. The majority
of the precipitation will dissipate shortly after sunset.

Areas of fog, locally dense, will be possible overnight. Please
exercise caution and be aware of areas where visibility is reduced.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Strong thunderstorms could be possible late this week or early in
the weekend, as a cold front moves across Arkansas. However, at this
time, forecast details are uncertain. Continue to monitor the latest
outlooks from your NWS office.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

46/57

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 13 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:03 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 thunderstorm wind, 1 flash flood, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Pulaski

When
April 17, 8:05 PM CST to 10:05 PM CST
Where
Pulaski County, 1.7 mi W of Genevia to 0.25 mi ESE of Lynch
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Law Enforcement
Coordinates
34.880, -92.130

Local law enforcement has reported numerous underpasses and roads have started to flood.

Thunderstorm Wind, Logan

When
April 21, 7:01 AM CST
Where
Logan County, 1.32 mi ENE of Subiaco
Measured
52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
35.290, -93.630

Power lines were down and power was out on the north side of town.

Thunderstorm Wind, Johnson

When
April 21, 7:03 AM CST
Where
Johnson County, Clarksville
Measured
56 kt (64 mph) estimated gust
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
35.470, -93.470

Several trees were reported down throughout Johnson County with estimated wind speeds of 60-65 mph.

Thunderstorm Wind, Johnson

When
April 21, 7:18 AM CST
Where
Johnson County, 0.89 mi NW of Lamar
Measured
52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Reported by
Public
Coordinates
35.440, -93.390

A large tree limb was reported down.

Hail, Izard

When
April 21, 9:04 PM CST
Where
Izard County, 0.56 mi W of Calico Rock
Measured
0.88 in hail
Reported by
Law Enforcement
Coordinates
36.120, -92.140

What these are

Flash Flood
Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.
Thunderstorm Wind
Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
Hail
Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arkansas in 2017Every state in 2017This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, April 2017

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 696496, 692529, 692530, 692531, 692532.