Arizona, 2017Wildfire in Arizona, July 1 to 20, 2017
July 1 to 20, 2017 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone
The lightning caused Frye Fire started June 7th and consumed 42,755 acres by the end of June. The fire burned over 48,000 acres before containment was achieved on July 20th.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The lightning caused Frye Fire started June 7th and consumed 42,755 acres by the end of June. The fire burned over 48,000 acres before containment was achieved on July 20th.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 9:32 PM MST, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 9:32 PM MST, 2 hours 28 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
932 PM MST Fri Jun 30 2017
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue through Saturday night.
Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will then
occur Sunday into next Friday. The bulk of thunderstorms will be
east to south of Tucson. Daytime temperatures will generally be a
few degrees above normal into next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Clear skies across the area tonight. Current forecast
looked in good shape, so no updates necessary this evening. Please
refer to the additional sections for more details.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid thru 02/06Z.
Clear skies much of southeast Arizona into Saturday afternoon. The
exception will be mainly southeast of KTUS where a few clouds above
15k ft AGL may occur. Surface wind Saturday afternoon wly/swly 10-15
kts with gusts to near 25 kts. Surface wind variable in direction
less than 12 kts at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions through Saturday. Daytime minimum
relative humidity will generally range from 5-15 percent area-wide.
Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will then
expected Sunday into next Friday. The bulk of these thunderstorms
will be mainly east to south of Tucson. Thunderstorm outflows will
create gusty and erratic winds at times, and there is the potential
for new fire ignitions due to lightning. Otherwise, southwest to
northwest afternoon winds at 10-15 mph are expected into early next
week, with the strongest speeds northeast of Tucson and especially
in the vicinity of Safford.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...Broad upper ridge extends from well west of the
southern California coast eastward into the southern CONUS this
afternoon. This pattern will provide dry conditions through Saturday
night. Various 30/12Z numerical prediction models then depict an
upper pattern that will become more conducive to the development of
showers and thunderstorms starting Sunday and continuing during the
upcoming week.
In essence, high pressure aloft is progged to become centered
generally near the Four Corners region Tuesday and remain quasi-
stationary over the central Rockies into the latter part of next
week. There were differences amongst the various deterministic
solutions and even between high resolution models such as the Univ
of Arizona WRF-NAM and WRF-GFS regarding daily precip chance detail
for this forecast area.
As an example, the WRF-NAM was more aggressive versus the WRF-GFS
regarding precip potential especially for the Tucson metro area
Sunday afternoon/evening. As another example, the deterministic
ECMWF was generally for robust with available moisture and liquid
precip amounts versus the GFS through around the middle of next week.
Thereafter, the GFS/ECMWF were quite similar regarding the depiction
of better precip chances by next weekend.
At any rate, only minor adjustments were made to the inherited
gridded data PoPs through next Friday. In summary for this forecast
period, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, with
the best precip chances east-to-south of Tucson. The bulk of these
showers/tstms will occur during the afternoon and evening hours,
although some showers/tstms may occur during the late night/early
morning hours as well.
High temperatures this forecast period will generally average at
least a few degrees above normal.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
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Wildfire, Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains
- When
- July 1, 12:00 AM MST to July 20, 5:00 PM MST
- Where
- Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains forecast zone
- Reported by
- Park/Forest Service
- Coordinates
- 32.572, -110.328 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The lightning caused Frye Fire ignited on June 7th. About 6,000 of the total 48,443 acres were burned during July before the fire was fully contained on July 20th.
- Wildfire
- A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Heat in Nevada, July 1 to 5, 20178 deaths · 1 event
- Rip Currents in Texas, July 1 to 4, 20172 deaths · 2 events
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Texas, July 1, 20171 death · 1 injured · $45,000 · 70 kt wind · 5 events
- Flash Flooding and Flood in New York, July 1 to 2, 2017$19 million · 33 events
- Flash Flooding in New Hampshire, July 1, 2017$12 million · 20 events
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Vermont, July 1, 2017$8.0 million · 50 kt wind · 13 events
- Flash Flooding and Flooding in New York, July 1 to 2, 2017$1.8 million · 50 kt wind · 22 events
- Wildfire in Utah, July 1 to 28, 2017$2.0 million · 1 event
- Flash Flooding in Maine, July 1, 2017$255,000 · 11 events
- Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds in Georgia, July 1 to 2, 2017$91,000 · 57 kt wind · 14 events
- Flooding in New Hampshire, July 1 to 2, 2017$115,000 · 4 events
- Tornadoes and Damaging Winds in Maine, July 1, 20171 injured · EF1 · 15 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 709509.