Winter Storm in Wyoming, March 28 to 30, 2016

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
332 PM MDT MON MAR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

A WET SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA AND HEAVY SNOW IN SOME LOCATIONS. BEING A SPRING STORM
WITH TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND FREEZING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
GOING TO BE PROBLEMATIC AND VERY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION AS WELL AS
TIME OF DAY. SNOW FALLING DURING THE DAY MAY NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH
EVEN AT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S. FOR LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS SNOW MAY FALL ALL DAY BUT MUCH OF IT MAY MELT AS IT
FALLS...ACCUMULATING DURING HEAVIER BURSTS AND MELTING DURING LESS
INTENSE PERIODS. AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET ROADS ARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN JUST WET THROUGH THIS STORM...FROM 4000 TO 6000 FEET ROADS
WILL BE MAINLY WET OR SLUSH COVERED DURING THE DAY AND SNOW
COVERED AT NIGHT...WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS ABOVE 6000 FEET.
BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES WILL BE THE FIRST LOCATIONS TO ICE UP.
OTHER IMPACTS WILL BE THE HEAVY WET NATURE OF THE SNOW WEIGHING ON
POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS. SOME TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ARE
POSSIBLE AS A RESULT...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE WINDS ARE GUSTY.
YOUNG LIVESTOCK WILL BE VULNERABLE TO THE COLD WET AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LOW MOVES FROM NEVADA INTO WESTERN WYOMING
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW SPREADING STRONG DIVERGENCE AND JET FORCING
OVER THE AREA ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO FALLING PRESSURES OVER WYOMING...INTENSIFYING
UPSLOPE INTO AREA FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. THE COMBINATION OF LOW
LEVEL FORCING AND STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN VERY
STRONG LIFT AND EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH OF A ROUNDUP TO EKALAKA LINE. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS OF HALF TO ONE INCH SEEM REASONABLE IN THIS AREA WITH
HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS IN FAVORED FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. RECENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
LOW FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...TRACKING IT INTO NEBRASKA
INSTEAD OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS TRACK WOULD CUT OFF PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH PRETTY QUICKLY FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND...BUT
STILL LEAVING SOME ROOM FOR A WETTER TRACK FURTHER TO THE NORTH.

SNOW...850 TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR ZERO CELSIUS THROUGH THIS EVENT
WHICH IS A BIT WARM FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. 700-500MB TEMPERATURES ARE SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR
HEAVY SNOW IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS HOWEVER. SNOW RATIOS OF
10 TO 16 RESULT IN 1 TO 2 FEET FOR NORTH FACING HIGHER FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SUCH AS RED LODGE AND NYE...WITH 6 TO 12
INCHES IN THE LOWER FOOTHILLS INCLUDING SHERIDAN...LIVINGSTON AND
BIG TIMBER. AT ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET EXPECT TO SEE 2 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW ON GRASS SURFACES SOUTH OF A ROUNDUP TO EKALAKA
LINE WITH MOST OF THIS ACCUMULATING LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. CAN'T STRESS ENOUGH TO EXPECT SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE WARM
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.

HIGHLITES...CANCELLED WINTER STORM WATCH FOR NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE
LATEST MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL. FROM
HARLOWTON TO BILLINGS TO ASHLAND HAVE GON WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. SOUTH OF THE ADVISORY IS A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
I-90 WHERE 6 INCHES TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IS EXPECTED DEPENDING ON
ELEVATION. KEPT THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR POWDER AND CARTER
COUNTIES FOR NOW...BUT PUSHED THE START BACK TO LATE TOMORROW.
THINKING BASED ON LATEST MODELS IS THAT THIS AREA WILL PROBABLY
NEED JUST AN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA BUT SHOULD THE STORM SYSTEM
MOVE JUST A BIT FURTHER NORTH SNOW TOTALS COULD GET SIGNIFICANTLY
HEAVIER. EITHER WAY SNOW WON'T REALLY GET GOING IN THIS AREA UNTIL
LATE TUESDAY SO WILL TAKE A LOOK AT A COUPLE MORE MODEL RUNS
BEFORE PULLING TRIGGER ON AN ADVISORY OR WARNING. CHAMBERS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. CHAMBERS

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP IN FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW. EAST AND NORTH FACING SLOPES SHOULD GET ANOTHER GOOD
SHOT OF SNOW. AT THIS TIME THINK THE LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD STAY
WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH FASTER
MOVING...CLEARING OUT QUICKLY FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY.

RIDGING AND DRY WEATHER DOMINATE FOR FRI INTO SAT.  THEN SOME
WEAKER ENERGY IS PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT
ATMOSPHERE IS DRIER AND ENERGY NOT SO STRONG. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT
POPS IN PLACE TO END THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME.

TEMPS TREND UPWARD THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY...AND 60S SATURDAY. HOOLEY/RMS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS EVENING...WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
REGION BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS FROM BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN WEST INTO THE
FOOTHILLS BY SUNRISE. CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST WILL DETERIORATE
LATER IN THE MORNING. CONDITIONS AT KSHR MAY DROP BELOW AIRPORT
MINIMUMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
MOUNTAIN AND PASS OBSCURATION FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 034/039 029/044 035/049 029/058 038/064 038/063 039/060
    6+/O    +4/S    44/W    11/N    11/B    12/W    21/B
LVM 028/035 025/040 030/049 029/057 035/061 036/060 035/057
    7+/S    +5/S    55/W    21/N    11/N    12/W    21/B
HDN 033/040 028/045 033/049 023/059 033/065 033/065 035/062
    5+/O    +4/S    54/W    11/B    11/U    12/W    21/B
MLS 037/045 029/047 033/047 023/056 035/062 034/062 037/060
    38/O    91/N    44/W    11/B    11/U    12/W    21/B
4BQ 034/046 030/045 031/045 023/053 033/063 032/063 036/062
    39/O    +6/S    64/W    11/B    11/U    12/W    21/B
BHK 035/050 028/046 029/044 021/050 031/058 028/056 033/059
    26/O    81/N    54/W    11/B    11/U    12/W    21/B
SHR 030/036 026/038 027/045 021/052 032/060 031/060 033/059
    8+/S    +8/O    65/W    11/N    11/U    12/W    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO NOON
      MDT WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 28-29-35-42-57-58-63.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO NOON MDT
      WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES 34-39>41-64-65.
     WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
      WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 36-37.
     WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 38-56-66>68.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
      ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1122 AM MDT MON MAR 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 AM     SNOW             26 ESE EMIGRANT         45.22N 110.24W
03/28/2016  M1.0 INCH        PARK               MT   MESONET

0100 AM     SNOW             3 N COOKE CITY          45.06N 109.95W
03/28/2016  M2.0 INCH        PARK               MT   MESONET

0100 AM     SNOW             13 ENE WILSALL          46.09N 110.43W
03/28/2016  M3.0 INCH        PARK               MT   MESONET

0100 AM     SNOW             12 NE WILSALL           46.11N 110.47W
03/28/2016  M2.0 INCH        PARK               MT   MESONET

&&

VLS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1232 PM MDT MON MAR 28 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     SNOW             8 ENE WILSALL           46.03N 110.51W
03/28/2016  M2.6 INCH        PARK               MT   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

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