Repeated rounds of strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall produced several inches of rain in the Baraboo River Basin and surrounding areas on September 21-22. Moderate flooding occurred along the Baraboo River from La Valle to Reedsburg to Rock Springs.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MKX wrote it up.
Repeated rounds of strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall produced several inches of rain in the Baraboo River Basin and surrounding areas on September 21-22. Moderate flooding occurred along the Baraboo River from La Valle to Reedsburg to Rock Springs. A State of Emergency was declared for Sauk County on September 22nd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 22, 9:10 AM CST, 2 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1010 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016
.UPDATE...No change to Flash Flood Watch at the moment. Will
reevaluate the need for an extension for afternoon package as all
12z data arrives. Focus for further development will be 850/925
baroclinicity setting up north of where surface boundary sets up
to our south. Meso models showing various solutions with respect
to where best precip zone lays out. Seeing greater focus in the
southwest half of the cwa from the NAMNest and HRRR. 06z GFS and
00z ECMWF tend to favor the meso solutions that skew more towards
the southwest CWA. 500 millibar heights will be building tonight
into Friday. So focus will largely be in the low levels with
isentropic forcing associated with 850/925 baroclinic zone.
PC
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...Webcams show a continuation of fog
dissipation in the eastern CWA closer to the Lake. IFR/LIFR cigs
slow to erode but have seen some improvement in this regard. As
low level boundary sags to our south tonight the guidance
continues to support a reinforcing of the lower cigs across more
of the CWA which would linger into Friday. This is supported by
the MOS data and BUFKIT soundings. Convective trends will be
watched carefully tonight as lingering 850/925 baroclinic zone
and overrunning associated with it acts as focus for further
development tonight into Friday. meso models show some
disagreement on placement but a little more emphasis being placed
towards the southwest cwa.
PC
&&
.MARINE...Southeast winds will back east, and then northeast winds
tonight and increase overnight into Friday. Winds and waves are
expected to remain below small craft advisory levels, but conditions
will be more elevated than what we've seen over the past few days.
Small craft may want to exercise caution, especially Friday
afternoon and night.
REM
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 324 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...Forecast confidence is medium.
Unfortunately, the pattern remains largely unchanged through
tonight. Much of our meso-scale guidance is struggling in this weak
flow, high moisture environment. The one positive aspect is that
we'll see more in the way of mid level ridging as a short wave exits
early today. This should help decrease the convection today as the
deeper support wanes. Still, with precipitable water values are in
the 1.7 to 1.8 range, very high for later September, and with the
sfc-h8 front still lingering, we have a persistent chance of showers
and storms through tonight. That sfc front will eventually push
south tonight as sfc ridging pushes south across the Great Lakes.
The better rain chances should stay north and west of Madison today
and even into tonight. Despite the sfc front being south tonight,
the 850mb front will be to the north and this is where the elevated
convection will focus. Given the overall weak low level flow, any
storms are highly influenced by the outcome of previous storms.
Meaning, the cold pool outflow will kick out boundaries that then
become new genesis regions for new storms. These areas are tough to
predict and is why our high resolution models struggle.
The main flooding concerns remain across Sauk, Marquette and
Columbia county where rainfall amounts have been the highest over
the last few days. Will keep the flash flood watch going, but will
trim out Sheboygan and Dodge counties due to the lack of decent
rainfall there and the drier look there today and tonight. The
areal flood warning for Sauk, Marquette and Columbia counties goes
until 815 this morning and I'll keep that going as runoff from all
the rain could still cause some water problems.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium
Deep moisture will remain overhead through the end of the week.
Precipitable water values will be 1.5 inches or better Friday and
Saturday. Kept precip chances going Friday into Saturday morning
as southern Wisconsin will remain in the baroclinic zone between
upper troughing to the northeast and ridging to the south. It
won't take much forcing to kick off more showers/storms in this
environment. Best rain chances are expected to be in northern
portions of the forecast area.
With the forecast area sitting within the temperature gradient,
will see highs Fri/Sat ranging from above normal southwest to
near or slightly below normal northeast.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Forecast Confidence...Medium
The 00Z ECMWF came in quite a bit different for the extended,
looking a bit more like the GFS now. The ECMWF is now not
developing a second upper low to the southwest by mid week as it
had been doing. Now, it pushes the first low east early in the
week faster than the GFS, bringing dry weather by Monday night.
Decided to linger pops into mid-week given the slower GFS and
previous ECMWF runs.
Trended temps cooler Monday through Wednesday given the ECMWF is
now cooler like the GFS. Forecast temps are still milder than the
coolest model solutions given the uncertainty and model
variability the last couple days. Overall though, looks like the
first fall-like temps of the season could arrive by mid-week.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
Overall, expecting VFR conditions at the TAF sites through this
evening, or about 04z Fri. There are lingering chances of showers
and storms, but they should be focused mainly north and west of
Madison. The most uncertainty is around Madison where things could
become wetter than expected. Brief MVFR conditions are possible
around any stronger convection. Winds will remain light, generally
below 10kts. A cold front is expected to slip south of the area
this evening. The northeast winds in the wake of the front are
expected to bring IFR cigs across all of Wisconsin after about 04z
Fri. Those conditions could linger into Friday night.
MARINE...
Northeast winds are expected to develop tonight and
into Friday. Winds and waves are expected to remain below small
craft advisory levels, but conditions will be more elevated than
what we've seen over the past few days. Small craft may want to
exercise caution.
&&
.MKX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ046-047-056-
057-062.
LM...None.
&&
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...Davis
Friday THROUGH Wednesday...DDVHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1010 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-230900- MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE- LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA- 1010 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR DANE AND IOWA COUNTIES AND POINTS NORTH...INCLUDING FOND DU LAC COUNTY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN LOCAL AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE ARE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...HOWEVER YOUR RAINFALL AND FLOODING REPORTS ARE APPRECIATED. LMZ643>646-230900- SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI- PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI- NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI- WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL- 1010 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTHEAST WINDS AND WAVES MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
819 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0818 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 W ROCK SPRINGS 43.48N 89.96W
09/22/2016 M4.00 INCH SAUK WI TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR TOTAL
&&
RSCHAARPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 AM CDT THU SEP 22 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 WSW PORTAGE 43.51N 89.57W
09/22/2016 M5.60 INCH COLUMBIA WI COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION 5 WSW PORTAGE /WI-CB-4/.
0505 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 N REEDSBURG 43.55N 90.00W
09/22/2016 M4.07 INCH SAUK WI CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION REEDSBURG 1NNE
/RDBW3/.
0655 AM HEAVY RAIN 1 SE REEDSBURG 43.53N 89.98W
09/22/2016 M3.51 INCH SAUK WI AWOS
AWOS STATION REEDSBURG-AIRPORT /C35/.
0800 AM HEAVY RAIN 4 WSW WESTFIELD 43.86N 89.56W
09/22/2016 M3.44 INCH MARQUETTE WI CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION OXFORD 6N /OXFW3/.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 SW PORTAGE 43.48N 89.57W
09/22/2016 M3.18 INCH COLUMBIA WI COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION 7 WSW PORTAGE /WI-CB-5/.
0650 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 N WEST BARABOO 43.52N 89.77W
09/22/2016 M2.66 INCH SAUK WI AWOS
AWOS STATION BARABOO /DLL/.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 ESE MONTELLO 43.78N 89.30W
09/22/2016 M2.55 INCH MARQUETTE WI CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MONTELLO /MTLW3/.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN NESHKORO 43.96N 89.22W
09/22/2016 M2.40 INCH MARQUETTE WI CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION NESHKORO /NSHW3/.
0653 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NE MAPLE BLUFF 43.14N 89.34W
09/22/2016 M2.30 INCH DANE WI ASOS
ASOS STATION MADISON-DANE COUNTY AIRPORT
/MSN/.
0720 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 E BARABOO 43.48N 89.63W
09/22/2016 M2.19 INCH SAUK WI CO-OP OBSERVER
CO-OP OBSERVER STATION BARABOO-WWTP /BABW3/.
0656 AM HEAVY RAIN 6 WNW SPRING GREEN 43.21N 90.19W
09/22/2016 M2.02 INCH SAUK WI ASOS
ASOS STATION LONE ROCK-AIRPORT /LNR/.
0814 AM HEAVY RAIN 2 N PARDEEVILLE 43.56N 89.31W
09/22/2016 M2.01 INCH COLUMBIA WI MESONET
MESONET STATION 1 NNW PARDEEVILLE /PEEW3/.
0700 AM HEAVY RAIN 3 NW MAPLE BLUFF 43.15N 89.41W
09/22/2016 M2.00 INCH DANE WI COCORAHS
COCORAHS STATION MADISON 4.8 NNW /WI-DA-29/.
&&
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
IRIS SYSTEMPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1239 PM CDT THU SEP 22 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1235 PM HEAVY RAIN 6 N OXFORD 43.87N 89.56W
09/22/2016 M4.08 INCH MARQUETTE WI TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR TOTAL. NUMEROUS AGRICULTURAL FIELD FLOODED
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
&&
RSCHAARThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
5 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Baraboo River peaked around 18.25 feet on September 23rd in La Valle. There was water is some basements in La Valle, especially on West Main Street.
The Baraboo River peaked around 16.9 feet the early morning of September 24th in Reedsburg. Floodwaters affected West Second Street, Granite Ave., South Webb Ave. Water touched the lowest part of the concrete deck of the Webb Avenue bridge. Water is close to the overhead doors at the Public Works Building. Floodwaters are 3 to 3.5 feet deep in the Public Works Yard. South Park next to the Wastewater Plant is underwater. Floodwaters are into the swimming pool control room in Webb Park. Floodwaters are into Webb Park and Smith Conservancy. There was water is many basements on the west side of Reedsburg.
Highway 127 closed in both directions due to water over the roadway.
The Baraboo River peaked around 22.6 feet on September 25th in Rock Springs. Floodwaters affected Highways DD, 154 and 136 in Rock Springs as well as Busser Park along Highway 136. More specifically highway 136 was closed between highway 33 and highway 154. A portion of highway 154 and DD was closed in Rock Springs. |Water is about 3.5 to 4 feet deep in the baseball diamond in Fireman's Park along Highway DD. Floodwaters affect some businesses, including the Post Office, on Highway 154 in Rock Springs. There was water in basements of some homes.
Highway 23 closed near Briggsville due to high water from the flooding of Neenah Creek.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, September 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 660259, 660260, 661255, 661250, 661258.