High pressure over Texas and a low pressure center off the California Coast brought increasing moisture to northern Arizona. Thunderstorms over far north-central Arizona and southern Utah produced flash flooding in the very narrow Paria Canyon.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
High pressure over Texas and a low pressure center off the California Coast brought increasing moisture to northern Arizona. Thunderstorms over far north-central Arizona and southern Utah produced flash flooding in the very narrow Paria Canyon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 22, 9:40 AM MST, 3 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 940 AM MST THU SEP 22 2016 .SYNOPSIS...Expect windy conditions today, with a line of showers and thunderstorms moving west to east through early tonight. Some storms may become severe, especially west of Flagstaff. Cooler and drier conditions will develop on Friday, with continued dry and slightly warmer daytime temperatures over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Strong low pressure center is currently over far northern California and southwestern Oregon this morning. The associated cold from is just northwest of Ely, NV and has passed Tonopah, NV. A pre-frontal band of showers has been moving slowly across Yavapai and western Coconino County this morning. HRRR depicted this band...and another stronger band developing and moving into northwestern Coconino county by late this afternoon. Current forecast may need a few minor adjustments. && .PREV DISCUSSION /430 AM MST/...A relatively deep upper low entering the northwestern Great Basin this morning will bring increasing dynamics and shear to the area today and tonight. A moisture plume that has been over western Arizona for a few days is already responding to this, with a line of showers and thunderstorms developing over Mohave County. This area of storms will move steadily east through the day, with a secondary area forming in the colder air late today and tonight. The combination of dynamics and shear, as well as cooling temperatures aloft, will cause a few severe thunderstorms to form today. The best location for this will be in the western and central portions of the CWA. In addition to the storms, expect fairly windy conditions ahead of the trough axis this afternoon. A few areas east of Flagstaff will flirt with advisory criteria, but we will hold off on any headlines for now. Cooler and drier conditions trail this system on Friday, with rising heights and a slight warming trend expected for the weekend and into early next week. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z package...SHRA/TSRA expected to increase from west to east ahead of a cold front today...with MVFR / local IFR conditions in showers and low clouds. Activity becoming more isolated 02Z-06Z, then mostly dissipating. SW winds 15-25KT gusts to 30-35KT most areas early evening. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...MAS/Peterson AVIATION...JJ For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 550 AM MST THU SEP 22 2016 AZZ004>018-037>040-230400- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 550 AM MST THU SEP 22 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS TODAY. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. A FEW LOCATIONS EAST OF FLAGSTAFF MAY SEE GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM EAST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO SEE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE AREAS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY COLDER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The Cedar City radar (KICX), 138 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:59 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain caused the Paria River at Lees Ferry to rise 4 feet.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 659825.