A Pacific frontal system brought heavy snow to the Olympics and North Cascades. For all but the Stevens Pass area, this was the first winter storm of the season.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.
A Pacific frontal system brought heavy snow to the Olympics and North Cascades. For all but the Stevens Pass area, this was the first winter storm of the season.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 23, 3:20 PM PST, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
320 PM PST Wed Nov 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS...Wet and windy weather is expected tonight through
Thursday night with heavy snow in the mountains. An upper level
trough will dig offshore on Friday then shift inland on Saturday. There
should be a brief break in the weather on Sunday then more wet
weather Sunday night into Monday as the next front moves through.
&&
.SHORT TERM...A pair of strong Pac systems will bring more rain and
mountain snow tonight through Thursday night. Heavy snow
accumulations are expected in the Olympics and across the west
slopes of the Cascades. Total snowfall accumulations will be in
the 1-3 foot range through late Thursday night...with up to 4
feet in the Olympics. Snow levels will remain close to 3000 ft
which will impact all highway passes. Snoqualmie and Stevens Pass
will be in the 8-12" range with up to 18" possible...Winter Storm
Warnings are in effect. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the
second wave Thursday night but the heavy precip may mesh into one
continuous period of heavy snow. In the lowlands...off and on
rain through the holiday with temperatures close to normal.
These back-to-back systems will bring an increase in winds too,
especially in the north interior (western Whatcom, western Skagit,
San Juans, Admiralty Inlet). A Wind Advisory is in effect for
these zones tonight through Thanksgiving Day morning with S/SE
gusts to 50-55 mph. Models are still having trouble with the
tracking of the second system Thursday night. The GFS is the
strongest solution which may bring strong winds to the north coast
and north interior. This solution is the outlier but not totally
disregarded.
Moving forward...the weather pattern will ease on Friday as a
trough digs offshore. There are still a few showers over the
region but this will seem like a lull. The trough will open and
push inland on Saturday for a cool, showery forecast. 33
.LONG TERM...The models are showing a break in the pattern as we
move into Sunday. By then a ridge will nudge inland but cool,
northerly flow will cut temps a few degrees. This break will be
short lived as the next system arrives Sunday night. This upper
level short wave trough may bring another round of heavy snow to
the mountains...with snow levels still around 3000 feet. After
another break on Tuesday, more wet weather is in store Tuesday
night into Wednesday. 33
&&
.AVIATION...Satellite imagery shows a strong and fast-moving frontal
system in the offshore waters. The front will move onto the coast
10Z-12Z and through the interior during the early morning hours.
Flow aloft will be strong southwesterly through the period. The
air mass will be mostly stable tonight and unstable behind the
front on Thursday.
Expect conditions to be on the lower end of VFR tonight with
ceilings generally 3000-4000 feet. Ceilings and visibilities will
drop into the MVFR category as precipitation increases with the
frontal passage late tonight or Thursday morning, then remain
mainly MVFR through Thursday -mainly for ceilings- with showers
and onshore flow. SE wind 30 KT gusting to 45 KT can be expected
in the interior (mainly near the water) north of KPAE to the
Canadian border after 06Z and continuing until the front passes
18Z Thu. Albrecht
KSEA...CIGS generally 040 but with a lower layer to 025 tonight as
-RA develops and increases in intensity. Vis will drop to 4-5 SM
in -RA BR for as the front passes. Winds aloft will become an
issue starting around 04Z tonight with winds at 025-030 increasing
to S 40 KT and winds at 050 increasing to 55-60 KT. At the
surface, south winds will increase to 15-25 KT after 04Z tonight.
Albrecht
&&
.MARINE...Satellite imagery shows a strong frontal in the offshore
waters moving rapidly eastward. The front will move through the
coastal waters late tonight and through the inland waters early
Thursday. Gale warnings are up for this front over the coastal
waters, the eastern portions of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and
the Northern Inland Waters. The remaining waters have Small Craft
Advisories in effect.
The 18Z GFS model solution continues to show the development of a
low that deepens to about 994 mb as it moves onshore over the
northern coast of the Olympic Peninsula Thursday evening. The NAM,
ECMWF and Canadian GEM show some version of triple point feature
moving through the area, but not the low with the circulation. The
current forecast is a slightly weaker version of a downscaled GFS
solution. The next shift may need to adjust the forecast for less
wind in especially the coastal waters Thursday night if the 00Z
solutions back off or if the GFS remains odd-model-out. If the
stronger GFS does prevail with the next set of solutions, gale
warnings may be needed for mainly the coastal waters, but possibly
the northern inland waters as well, for Thursday night. Confidence
in this Thursday night system is quite low.
From Friday afternoon onward, the forecast will be for a series of
weak troughs affecting the waters through the weekend. A stronger
front may move southeast across the waters later Sunday night or
Monday morning. Albrecht
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Additional rains from another front tonight and
Thanksgiving Day will likely push the Skokomish above flood
stage. A flood watch is in effect.
Elsewhere, flooding is not expected during the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for Cascades
of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and King
Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
night for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of
Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit
Counties-Olympics.
Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for
Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-Olympics.
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Thursday for
Admiralty Inlet Area-San Juan County-Western Skagit County-
Western Whatcom County.
Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Thursday for Olympics.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for rough bar until 6 PM PST Thursday for
Grays Harbor Bar.
Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Thursday for Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Thursday for East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters
Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until noon PST Thursday for Admiralty Inlet.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Puget Sound and
Hood Canal.
&&
www.weather.gov/seattle
You can see an illustrated version of this discussion at
www.weather.gov/seattle/gafd/latest_webafd.html4 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Waterhole SNOTEL measured 13 inches snow in the 12 hours ending 1 am Thu Nov 24 and 28 inches total for the warning period.
The Mt Baker NWAC site measured 13 inches snow in the 12 hours ending 7 AM Thu Nov 24 and 41 inches total from 7 PM Wed Nov 23 to 4 AM Fri Nov 25.
Stevens Pass and Alpental NWAC sites measured 6 inches snow during the warning period, and Snoqualmie Pass NWAC site measured 4 inches snow during the warning period.
The Paradise NWAC site measured 15 inches snow during the warning period. Crystal NWAC site had 11 inches snow, and White Pass NWAC site had 6 inches snow.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 666334, 666335, 666371, 666372.