A strong cold front brought a burst of high winds to the South Washington Coast.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
A strong cold front brought a burst of high winds to the South Washington Coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 27, 8:51 PM PST, 3 hours 9 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
851 PM PST WED JAN 27 2016
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE SECTIONS
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG MOIST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHWEST
WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN...AND COASTAL WIND...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
INLAND. ANOTHER FRONT WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SOME CASCADE
SNOW FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN ABOVE 7000 FT BUT
DRIFT DOWN AROUND THE CASCADE PASS ELEVATIONS FRIDAY AND THEN
TOWARDS THE FOOTHILL ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT COOL AND SHOWERY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SNOW
LEVELS LOWERING WELL BELOW THE CASCADE PASSES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A STRONG AND MOIST PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WAS OFF THE WASHINGTON AND OREGON COASTS THIS EVENING...
BEGINNING TO SPREAD RAIN AND WIND ONSHORE. THE MODELS AND SATELLITE
DATA INDICATE THAT THIS FRONT CONTAINS 1.5 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...WHICH ARE QUITE HIGH. IN ADDITION...50 TO 60 KT 850 MB WINDS
WILL TRANSPORT THE MOISTURE ONSHORE. THUS THE IDEA OF PRETTY HEAVY
RAIN AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY LOOKS
GOOD. THE FRONT APPEARS TO MOVE JUST FAST ENOUGH TO AVOID ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING UNLESS IT IS OF THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
VARIETY...WHICH HAPPENS OR IS AMPLIFIED DUE TO CLOGGED STORM DRAINS
AND THE LIKE.
IT LOOKS PRETTY WINDY ALONG THE COAST WITH THE FRONT AS WELL
TONIGHT...AND HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS. 850 MB WINDS AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE SURFACE GRADIENT
LOOK SUPPORTIVE. EARLIER FRONTS HAVE HAD TROUBLE PRODUCING MUCH
COASTAL WINDS BUT THE WINDS STAYED MOSTLY EASTERLY IN THOSE
EVENTS...AND THEY ARE ALREADY SOUTHERLY ALONG THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF
THE COAST. SO A LOW END BEACHES AND HEADLANDS WARNING LOOKS
REASONABLE...WITH SUBWARNING WINDS IN THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z IN THE MORNING... THAT
IS 4 AM TO 7 AM... AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND AREAS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS WITH DECENT RAINS AND BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AND DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
SNOW LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY DROP DOWN NEAR THE CASCADE PASSES AT THE BACK
SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT THE SHORT DURATION WILL LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO WELL BELOW ADVISORY AMOUNTS.
THE NEXT OCCLUDED FRONT SPREADS IN INCREASING PRECIPITATION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST
ONSHORE FLOW IS TO OUR SOUTH IN SOUTHWEST OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...BUT THE FRONT HOLDS TOGETHER FOR A DECENT SHOT OF RAIN
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. SNOW LEVELS BRIEFLY RISE ABOVE PASS
ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY SOUTH OF MOUNT HOOD...THEN FALL
BELOW THE PASSES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY GIVE DECENT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE CASCADES...WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING ELSEWHERE AS
WELL. TOLLESON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE PARENT UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE FRIDAY SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN THE ONSHORE FLOW
AND SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY OR TUESDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER
TO 2000 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO 1500 FEET
SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING BACK UP TOWARDS 2500 FEET MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE CASCADES...CASCADE
FOOTHILLS...AND COAST RANGE THROUGH MONDAY. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL MITIGATE THE LOWERING SNOW LEVELS SOMEWHAT BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT AN OFF CHANCE OF SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN CLOSE TO THE
VALLEY FLOOR LATER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BIGGER
CHALLENGE FOR LOW LEVEL SNOW WILL BE COMPETING MODEL DEPICTIONS OF
JUST HOW COOL AND DRY THE AIR MASS WILL ACTUALLY BE. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLD AND THE MOISTURE WHILE THE ECMWF IS LESS
COLD AND MORE DRY. HAVE CONTINUED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE UNTIL
BETTER AGREEMENT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE LAST 12 HOURS WORTH OF
MODELS ARE SHOWING A MODEST SHOWERY PERIOD WILL DOMINATE.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW PATTER
WILL DEVELOP BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE TRY TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION TUESDAY BUT QUICKLY GET REPLACED BY ANOTHER PASSING
UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY. INITIAL IMPRESSIONS ARE THE REGION WILL STAY
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE UPPER JET, BUT IT DOES SEEM LIKE WE WILL BE
WALKING A FINE LINE AS THE PASSING STORMS MAY DEEPEN ENOUGH TO BRING
SNOW LEVELS DOWN BELOW THE PASSES AT TIMES LATER IN THE WEEK.
/JBONK/TOLLESON
&&
.AVIATION...VFR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. CIGS AND VIS
STARTING TO DROP TO MVFR ALONG THE COAST AS RAIN MOVES ONSHORE.
WILL SEE THIS RAIN MOVE INLAND LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR AT INLAND
TERMINALS BY AROUND 08-12Z NORTH...AND CLOSER TO 13-15Z AT KSLE
AND KEUG. ALREADY SEEING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE
COAST...AND WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT AT INLAND SITES. EXPECT GUSTS TO 20-30 KT INLAND. WITH
RAIN CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY MORNING...LIKELY WON'T SEE CIGS AND
VIS START TO IMPROVE UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING AT THE EARLIEST. WILL
SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND 22Z-00Z AND
WITH THIS TRANSITION WE COULD SEE CIGS AND VIS START TO IMPROVE AT
INLAND TERMINALS AFTER THIS TIME. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY IMPROVE TO
VFR A LITTLE EARLIER WITH THE TRANSITION TO -SHRA OCCURRING AROUND
20Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE THOUGH THIS IS
SUGGESTED IN THE MODELS...ONSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR CIGS AND VIS STAYING LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR TONIGHT WITH MODERATE RA MOVING IN
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 KT AFTER 08Z. CIGS
GRADUALLY LOWER TO AROUND 2000 FT BY 10-12Z AND STAY ROUND
2000-2500 FT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MAY SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
AFTER 22Z AS RAIN TRANSITIONS TO -SHRA FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. -MCCOY
&&
.MARINE...COLD FRONT GETTING CLOSER...WITH SOLID GALES OVER THE
WATERS AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 19 FT OUT BY BUOY 89. SEAS ON
TRACK TO PEAK AROUND 20 TO 22 FT IN THE OUTER WATERS...AND NEAR
20 FT NEAR THE COAST. HAVE INCREASED WINDS IN THE INNER WATERS AS
WE ARE ALREADY SEEING SOUTHERLY WINDS START TO INCREASE ALONG THE
COAST. OTHERWISE...STILL THINKING WINDS PEAKING RIGHT AROUND THE
UPPER THRESHOLD OF 47 KT ACROSS THE WATERS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
50 KT POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THE INNER WATERS AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES THE COAST AROUND 11PM TO 5AM.
BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT THURSDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL STAY ELEVATED
AROUND 17-18 FT THROUGH THURSDAY...DROPPING DOWN INTO THE MID-
TEENS FRIDAY MORNING. OUR NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM...BUT GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO KEEP THE WORST OF THIS
SYSTEM OUT OF OUR WATERS...THOUGH A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS IS
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL HELP TO KEEP SEAS UP IN THE MID-TO-UPPER TEENS THROUGH FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY...WITH SEAS FINALLY STARTING TO DROP SUBSTANTIALLY
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A SHIFT TO FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER SEEMS
LIKELY STARTING ON SUNDAY ALLOWING SEAS TO DROP DOWN BELOW 10 FT
AND KEEPING WINDS FAIRLY BENIGN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
-MCCOY
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL OREGON
COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.
WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THURSDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PST THURSDAY FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON
COAST.
PZ...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM CAPE
SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM-WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR FROM 10 TO 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 9 PM
PST THURSDAY.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM
CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 10 NM-COASTAL
WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD TO FLORENCE OR OUT 10 NM.
&&
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Two weather stations along the South Washington coast reported a few hours of sustained winds between 49 and 51 mph in the early morning. A peak gust of 61 mph was measured at Cape Disappointment.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 614363.