Heavy swell moved in, causing high surf on the southern Oregon coast.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
Heavy swell moved in, causing high surf on the southern Oregon coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 28, 2:57 PM PST, 53 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
257 PM PST THU JAN 28 2016
UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION
.SHORT TERM...A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WHILE A STRONG AND MOIST FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EVENT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS BRIEFLY LOWER
THIS EVENING BUT RISE AGAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY TO AROUND 7000 TO
8000 FEET. A SHOWERY PATTERN IS IN STORE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING SNOW
LEVELS WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
HIGHER PASSES.
MODELS REMAIN ON TRACK SHOWING THAT THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
PUSH INTO THE COAST TONIGHT AND INLAND ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG PLUME OF MOISTURE ORIGINATING FROM JUST
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS A RESULT THIS WILL BRING AN
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER, AKIN TO PINEAPPLE EXPRESS, INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND EXPECT ANOTHER STRONGER ROUND OF RAIN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THAT THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST
WHICH WILL RESULT IN ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER THE COAST RANGE AND
CASCADES DURING THIS EVENT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE AGAIN AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INLAND TO AROUND 7000 TO 8000 FEET.
THIS SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH HIGH
SNOW LEVELS IS EXPECTED TO BRING RISES AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS.
SOME OF THE MAINSTEM AREA RIVER MAY NEAR OR REACH BANKFULL FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER NO MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED
BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECASTS. OF NOTE, MODELS ARE INDICATING
THE SYSTEM WILL FOCUS SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE SOUTH OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. HOWEVER AREA IN SOUTHERN OREGON ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL STREAM FLOODING ON FRIDAY,
MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEST OF THE CASCADES
WHERE HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ON VERY WET SOILS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR
SMALL STREAM FLOODING WILL BE IN SOUTHERN CURRY, SOUTHERN
JOSEPHINE AND WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE RAIN RATES WILL BE
HIGHEST. HOWEVER AREAS IN JACKSON COUNTY MAY ALSO SEE STREAMS AND
CREAKS RISE, POSSIBLY OUT OF THEIR BANKS. LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING
AND PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD
PRONE OR LOW LYING AREAS. SEE THE FFAMFR FOR DETAILS ON THE
POTENTIAL OF SMALL STREAM FLOODING AND THE ESFMFR FOR DETAILS ON
RIVER RISES. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SREF MODEL OUTPUT DOES NOT
SUPPORT RAIN RATES HIGH ENOUGH FOR DEBRIS FLOW OR FLASH FLOOD
THREATS NEAR WILDFIRE BURN SCARS SUCH AS IN WESTERN SISKIYOU
COUNTY OR IN THE COAST RANGE. HOWEVER WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS CONCERN.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BECOME GUSTY ON
FRIDAY, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SHASTA AND SUMMER
LAKE AREAS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
TO THESE AREAS. SEE THE NPWMFR FOR DETAILS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT...DROPPING DOWN TO 3000 TO 4500 FEET FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOW SNOW LEVELS OF 2500 TO 3500 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THIS FRONT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 6000 FEET, ESPECIALLY IN THE CRATER LAKE AREA
WHICH MAY SEE NEAR 10 INCHES OF SNOW FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OTHER AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FROM AROUND 2 TO 6 INCHES BETWEEN FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY. MOUNTAIN PASS OVER AREAS HIGHWAYS AND INTERSTATE 5 WILL
LIKELY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS SHOW
VARIABILITY ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD AND MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER SNOW ADVISORIES FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES ABOVE 3000 FEET WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY, JAN 31ST THROUGH FRIDAY, FEB 5TH... A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WEST COAST SUNDAY MORNING WILL PROGRESS
ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE PLAINS
TUESDAY. THE VERY COLD -36C 500MB CORE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE OVER US SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. 700 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE -15C TO -16C RANGE, WITH -4C TO -6C AT 850MB. AN AIR
MASS THIS COLD WILL PRODUCE SNOWFALL IN SHOWERS DOWN TO BETWEEN 1000
AND 1500 FEET EVEN IF SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING, AS
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR DRIVING DOWN TEMPERATURES WITH
THE SHOWERS. TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF THE COLD POOL OVER THE AREA
WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WE SEE AND WHERE IT FOCUSES.
AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, ON THE ORDER
OF 2 INCHES OR LESS OF NEW SNOW, WITH VALLEY AREAS GENERALLY
EXPERIENCING LESS THAN A HALF INCH OF SNOW. IF THE THE COLD POOL
WERE TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WE COULD
SEE LOCALLY MORE, HOWEVER.
ON MONDAY WE'LL BE IN THE NORTHWEST JET STREAM FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WHILE SOME
SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE, NOT MUCH WILL FALL. MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FRONTAL
SYSTEM RIDING IN FROM THE WEST. DETAILS HAVE VARIED IN THESE MODEL
RUNS, BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH, BUT WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO, WITH MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM IT OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
COAST. SNOW LEVELS, HOWEVER, ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2000 TO 3000
FOOT RANGE, SO IMPACTS FROM SNOW LOOK LIKELY FOR LOWER TO MID
ELEVATIONS. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE OF CONCERN WILL BE THE OREGON
WEST SIDE AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTICULARLY SEXTON AND SISKIYOU
SUMMITS, AND THE MOUNT SHASTA AREA. AT THIS POINT AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT
TO MODERATE, SO SOME ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT, WITH THE PRIMARY GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME
STORM ACTIVITY IN THE AREA. ALL IN ALL, THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
CENTERED ON THURSDAY, WITH SNOW LEVELS NEAR 4000 FEET. IN SHORT,
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE LIKE MANY PERIODS OF RIDGING THUS FAR THIS
WINTER, WHICH MEANS THAT STORM ACTIVITY IS STILL LIKELY, ALBEIT
PROBABLY JUST A BIT WEAKER THAN WHAT WE'VE SEEN WHEN RIDGING IS NOT
PRESENT. BTL
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 28/18Z TAF CYCLE...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF THE CASCADES AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THIS
EVENING WITH ISOLATED IFR CIGS. ALSO EXPECT AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING. WEST OF THE CASCADES IN OREGON
EXPECT MAINLY VFR INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER ANOTHER ROUND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR AND NEAR TOTAL TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. BTL/CC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 900 AM PST THU 28 JAN 2016... MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS. VERY HIGH LONG PERIOD WEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF GUSTY SOUTH WINDS NEAR
GALE FORCE FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND EASE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT
BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND. BTL
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST THIS EVENING FOR ORZ030-031.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ORZ022-024-026.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM PST FRIDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ085.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR CAZ080-081.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO NOON PST FRIDAY FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 10 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 10 AM PST FRIDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10
AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
CC/BTLPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
958 AM PST THU JAN 28 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0957 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 NNW BROOKINGS 42.12N 124.32W
01/28/2016 M2.09 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
24 HOUR TOTAL. OBSERVER LOCATION 5 MI N OF
BROOKINGS NEAR CAPE FERRELO.
&&
CSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1049 AM PST THU JAN 28 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 AM HEAVY RAIN 7 NNW ROGUE RIVER 42.53N 123.20W
01/28/2016 M0.93 INCH JACKSON OR TRAINED SPOTTER
3 HOUR ACCUMULATION. .4 INCHES FROM 915 TO
1030 OBSERVER LOCATION ASHLAND.
&&
CSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
1234 PM PST THU JAN 28 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN PORT ORFORD 42.75N 124.49W
01/28/2016 M1.72 INCH CURRY OR TRAINED SPOTTER
12 HOUR ACCUMULATION. OBSERVER LOCATION
RIGHT IN PORT ORFORD.
&&
CSThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high surf. Local standard time, as filed.
The Port Orford buoy indicated heavy swell that likely generated high surf along the southern Oregon coast.
The Port Orford buoy indicated heavy swell that likely generated high surf along the southern Oregon coast.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 611125, 611126.