By the end of October, D2 drought conditions began to nose into the northeast counties of North Texas due to below-normal rainfall in this area.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
By the end of October, D2 drought conditions began to nose into the northeast counties of North Texas due to below-normal rainfall in this area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 24, 11:02 PM CST, 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1202 AM CDT Tue Oct 25 2016 .AVIATION... 06 UTC TAF Cycle Concerns---VFR for the DFW Metroplex. MVFR visibility and ceiling potential at Waco Tuesday morning. For the Metroplex TAF sites---VFR is expected to prevail through a bulk of the 06 UTC TAF cycle. Low level flow appears as if it will be too weak to support transport of any MVFR stratus this far northward during the overnight hours. High clouds will invade from the northwest ahead of a potent longwave trough across the western portion of the U.S. Diurnal VFR CU along with mid/upper level clouds will build through the day ahead of this feature. There appears to be a signal from some model guidance that there may be the potential for some MVFR stratus at the tail end of the 30 hour DFW TAF. Low confidence in the timing of the MVFR stratus, however, warrants keeping the TAFs VFR for now. For the Waco TAF site---A slightly tricker TAF here as there has been some signal in the model guidance for restricted ceilings and visibility. A couple of ingredients are already in place that would facilitate fog development (clear skies though a few thin high clouds are possible and light winds). The somewhat unknown ingredient is sufficient low level moisture. Dewpoint depressions across central McLennan County have also fallen to around 3-6 degrees. More important to Waco Regional will be the slightly veering winds that are forecast to occur. If this occurs highly localized moisture advection across the airfield compliments of Lake Waco will occur, and could result in even poorer ceilings (IFR) than currently forecast. The latest consensus of high- resolution model output remains fairly aggressive with low visibilities per raw output and there appears to be a reflection of this in both NAM and RAP forecast profiles. Because of the uncertainty as to how reduced visibilities will fall (should fog occur), I'll TEMPO MVFR visibility around 3SM from 11 UTC to 15 UTC. As this layer lifts, it's likely that there will be some brief periods of near IFR to MVFR ceilings. Thereafter, diurnal VFR CU should develop in the afternoon. 24-Bain && .UPDATE... Temperature/dewpoint spreads still around 10 degrees, surface winds remaining 5 to 10 MPH and a swath of mid level clouds working their way in from the west have all but convinced me that fog will not be an issue tonight. We will keep an eye on the patch of stratus over the TX Hill Country but these clouds seem disorganized and in no hurry to stream northward across the region. The only update was to remove showers across the southeast, otherwise just a few minor grid updates were needed. 30 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016/ The shortwave that brought abundant mid and high level clouds and some sprinkles/rain showers to parts of the region Sunday evening through this afternoon is moving off to the east. The showers that were southeast of a Hearne to Groesbeck to Terrell line as of 330 PM will move out of the forecast area early this evening. Expect partly cloudy skies for most of the forecast area tonight with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Another weak shortwave will bring some more mid and high clouds across the region Tuesday. We will have partly sunny skies and southerly winds around 10 mph. Highs should reach the upper 70s to mid 80s again. Another shortwave is expected to move across the plains on Wednesday. This may bring a front down close to the northwestern zones late Wednesday before it stalls and lifts back to the north. Any rain chances will be well to our north. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s and highs Wednesday will be in the 80s area wide. As an upper level ridge builds in from the west late week, well above seasonal normal temperatures will prevail through the early part of next week. Lows will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s and highs will be mostly in the 80s. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 83 65 85 64 / 0 5 5 5 10 Waco 62 84 62 86 61 / 0 5 5 5 5 Paris 61 81 59 83 60 / 0 5 5 10 10 Denton 62 83 62 85 61 / 0 5 5 5 10 McKinney 62 82 62 84 61 / 0 5 5 5 10 Dallas 65 83 65 85 65 / 0 5 5 5 10 Terrell 62 83 62 84 61 / 0 5 5 5 10 Corsicana 62 83 61 84 62 / 0 5 5 5 5 Temple 61 84 61 85 61 / 0 5 5 5 5 Mineral Wells 62 84 61 85 60 / 0 5 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && 24/30
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 334 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251100- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO- FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE- LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 334 PM CDT MON OCT 24 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
D2 conditions developed across the county during the last week of October due to below-normal rainfall.
D2 conditions developed across the county during the last week of October due to below-normal rainfall.
D2 conditions developed across the county during the last week of October due to below-normal rainfall.
D2 conditions developed across the county during the last week of October due to below-normal rainfall.
D2 conditions developed across the county during the last week of October due to below-normal rainfall.
D2 conditions developed across the county during the last week of October due to below-normal rainfall.
D2 conditions developed across the county during the last week of October due to below-normal rainfall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 662889, 662890, 662891, 662892, 662893, 662894, 662895.