Drought in Alabama, October 25 to 31, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
721 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

.UPDATE...

The current forecast is on track and no updates are planned for
this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [714 PM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
An upper level trough over the Mid-Atlantic region will move
offshore tonight, with a ridge starting to build over the
southeastern CONUS. Dry air will remain entrenched over our area,
with PWAT values less than 0.7" expected through tonight. At the
surface, a weak cold front will slide southward across our area
tonight, but with ample dry air in place no precipitation is
expected. With scattered high clouds in place, radiational cooling
will be less efficient than the last few nights, so low
temperatures should be several degrees warmer across our area.
Expect lows in the lower 50s inland, and mid 50s to near 60 along
the Gulf Coast.

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Relatively benign weather will continue across the local area
through Wednesday as the main belt of upper westerlies (and the
associated dynamics) remain well to the north of the area. At the
surface, high pressure will nose down the eastern seaboard,
increasing easterly flow by late Tuesday. However, no
precipitation is expected. Seasonably warm temperatures are
expected, with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the lower
60s.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
Warm and dry weather is expected to continue through the upcoming
weekend. A front will approach the region on Thursday, but stall
and dissipate west of the area as the upper support quickly lifts
out to the northeast. Temperatures by this weekend will be well
above normal, with highs pushing into the upper 80s by Saturday.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

VFR conditions expected at all sites through the period with
variable high clouds AOA 25KFT and easterly winds generally below
10 kts.

.MARINE...
Light winds will increase out of the east by mid-week as high
pressure builds north of the area. Conditions may reach exercise
caution levels by early Wednesday, continuing through Thursday.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dry airmass will give way to a modest increase in moisture by
midweek with RH's gradually increasing from the low to mid 20s
being observed across the region this afternoon to the mid 30s to
low 40s by Wednesday. Despite the forecast improvement in
conditions, Tuesday afternoon will again pose a marginal threat
for red flag conditions, due to lows RHs and marginally high ERC
values during the afternoon hours across mainly Washington,
Walton, and Bay counties. Otherwise, no fire weather threats are
expected.

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant rain is expected this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   51  84  59  84  61 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   59  81  63  80  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        52  85  56  83  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        51  84  55  82  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      50  83  57  82  60 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    50  82  60  83  61 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  58  79  65  79  67 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

UPDATE...Pullin
NEAR TERM...Lahr
SHORT TERM...Camp
LONG TERM...Camp
AVIATION...Pullin
MARINE...Camp
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...Camp