This was a very marginal event in terms of parameters coming together. However, there was an axis of the moisture convergence in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere with precipitable water values right over north central TX Panhandle and OK Panhandle of over one inch and a sharp moisture gradient from west to east across the Panhandles.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
This was a very marginal event in terms of parameters coming together. However, there was an axis of the moisture convergence in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere with precipitable water values right over north central TX Panhandle and OK Panhandle of over one inch and a sharp moisture gradient from west to east across the Panhandles. In-conjunction with the moisture axis, limited CAPE of just around 1000 J/Kg, and weak effective shear around 30 kts allowed a few isolated storms to initiate. Weak mid level winds under 10 kts had storm training over the same areas before eventually instability and decreasing moisture axis had storms dissipate. This resulted in heavy rainfall with some flooding reported.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 2, 5:29 PM CST, 21 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 629 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 .AVIATION... VFR conditions should prevail for the next 24 hours minus any degraded flight categories due to convection early on for the 00Z TAF issuance. Ongoing convection north of Amarillo, TX up to Liberal, KS could impact KGUY for the first couple of hours of this TAF cycle. Convection should diminish by 03z but should be east of all terminals by 01Z. Once convection moves east of the terminals then winds should diminish through the overnight hours. Winds will come up once again tomorrow from the south. There is a chance for another round of convection of KAMA and KGUY after 18Z Monday but confidence on timing is too low to mention in prevailing. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 459 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016/ UPDATE... A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE CU FIELD ALONG A NARROW CORRIDOR IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WHERE SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS EXIST. A LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE MID-UPR LEVEL RIDGING OVER AREA IN ADVANCE OF STORM SYSTEM IN THE WEST, BUT LITTLE JET STREAK OVER THE AREA IN THE RIDGE MAY ALSO BE AIDING IN THIS DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT STORMS WILL NOT LAST ONCE WE LOSE SOME INSTABILITY. THAT SAID, DID UPDATE ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY INTO EARLY EVENING. PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016/ DISCUSSION... A strong upper trough, which will be the nations next big weather- maker, can be seen in WV imagery near the CA/OR state line. Over the past several days, models have trended toward the ECMWF which was one of the first models to indicate a more northern track with this system. For the Panhandles, this track will promote much more progressive dry line (with deep dry slot noted) on Tuesday and, as a result, SPC has shifted the more significant severe risk with this system Tuesday north and east of the Panhandles. That said, Monday afternoon/night will provide the best chance for precip with the aforementioned system as H85-H7 theta-e ridge traverse the Panhandle. An area of large scale lift (per h7-h3 Q-vector convergence) associated with the upper trough and modestly diffluent flow aloft between srn and nrn stream jet streaks will provide favorable environment for precip/convection, especially Monday night. However, bad timing of the best moisture and large scale lift during the overnight hours will strongly limit instability and convective potential despite dewpoints creeping up to near 60 by Monday night. Veering wind profiles and a strong LLJ Monday evening will provide sufficient wind shear to grab ones attention though, and given this SPC does have a marginal risk for severe storms across much of the area now mainly for the Monday aftn and evening timeframe. Will shows isold POP mainly across central Panhandles Monday afternoon and continue the isold to low end sct pops favoring the E and SE areas Monday night. Models show only the far ERN areas on the back edge of the H85-h7 theta-e axis by Tuesday morning with dry air advection across most of the CWA. Thus will only maintain a low POP in the extreme ern counties in the morning before dry air arrives on Tuesday. The weak cold front assoc with the upper system will likely stall across the region Tuesday due to the more lifting storm track but the area will remain dry due to sw flow in its wake. A WRN US trough will re-develop by mid week as the next system deepens. GFS and GEM show a deeper and more progressive system which drives a significant cold front through the area late Thu. While ECMWF agrees with this timing, it is somewhat weaker with the front as it once again lifts the system more more on a NE track. All models appear pretty dry with this fropa with only the far SE Panhandles included in a low end POP. This difference also impacts the weekend as the ECMWF generates precip with a SRN stream s/wv while GFS does not show enough moisture recovery to produce precip with this system. Fire Weather...Dry air and gusty winds may provide an elevated wild fire threat on Tuesday especially across the south as fuels continue to dry given lack of recent rainfall. && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...None. OK...None. && 14
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 413 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-031100- CIMARRON-TEXAS-BEAVER-DALLAM-SHERMAN-HANSFORD-OCHILTREE-LIPSCOMB- HARTLEY-MOORE-HUTCHINSON-ROBERTS-HEMPHILL-OLDHAM-POTTER-CARSON- GRAY-WHEELER-DEAF SMITH-RANDALL-ARMSTRONG-DONLEY-COLLINGSWORTH- 413 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MONDAY NIGHT AND THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING STORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY INCREASE TUESDAY IF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL DOES NOT OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. MJG
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 547 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 TXZ002-003-007-008-022315- HANSFORD TX-SHERMAN TX-MOORE TX-HUTCHINSON TX- 547 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN MOORE...SOUTHEASTERN SHERMAN...SOUTHWESTERN HANSFORD AND NORTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT... AT 547 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF PRINGLE...OR 20 MILES EAST OF DUMAS...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MORSE AND PRINGLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. && LAT...LON 3585 10147 3589 10174 3612 10175 3610 10138 TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 190DEG 9KT 3595 10162 CE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
550 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016
OKZ002-003-022315-
BEAVER OK-TEXAS OK-
550 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
NORTHWESTERN BEAVER COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...
AT 550 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5
MILES NORTHWEST OF TURPIN...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERAL. THIS STORM
WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.
HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TYRONE AND TURPIN.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
&&
LAT...LON 3699 10075 3682 10091 3698 10110 3700 10107
3700 10076
TIME...MOT...LOC 2250Z 138DEG 2KT 3694 10093
CESPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 606 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 TXZ007-012-022330- POTTER TX-MOORE TX- 606 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOORE AND NORTHEASTERN POTTER COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT... AT 606 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF LAKE MEREDITH...OR 20 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DUMAS...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FRITCH AND LAKE MEREDITH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. && LAT...LON 3551 10185 3568 10186 3576 10162 3552 10162 TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 264DEG 6KT 3561 10178 CE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 615 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 OKZ002-003-022345- BEAVER OK-TEXAS OK- 615 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHWESTERN BEAVER COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT... AT 615 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF TURPIN...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF LIBERAL. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BAKER AND TURPIN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3681 10081 3688 10109 3700 10105 3700 10079 TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 280DEG 2KT 3693 10095 CE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
627 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016
OKZ002-030000-
TEXAS OK-
627 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS COUNTY UNTIL
700 PM CDT...
AT 627 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF HOUGH...OR 13 MILES SOUTH OF FETERITA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOOKER AND OPTIMA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
&&
LAT...LON 3687 10117 3674 10136 3698 10157 3700 10155
3700 10125
TIME...MOT...LOC 2327Z 238DEG 10KT 3695 10145
CESPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016
TXZ007-008-012-013-030000-
POTTER TX-CARSON TX-MOORE TX-HUTCHINSON TX-
631 PM CDT SUN OCT 2 2016
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MOORE...NORTHWESTERN
CARSON...NORTHEASTERN POTTER AND WESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM CDT...
AT 630 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MORSE TO 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF LAKE MEREDITH. MOVEMENT WAS NORTH AT 10 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FRITCH...STINNETT...SANFORD...PRINGLE AND LAKE MEREDITH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.
&&
LAT...LON 3605 10162 3558 10187 3549 10160 3587 10135
3605 10129
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 195DEG 13KT 3600 10152 3557 10177
CEThe Amarillo radar (KAMA), 39 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:50 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Delayed report of gravel road washed away used for trail maintenance at the end of Alibates Road. Park crews had to get a grader truck to fix the road. Time estimated by radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, October 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 661641.