Hail and Heavy Rain in Kansas, October 2, 2016

Name: Hail and Heavy Rain in Kansas, October 2, 2016
Start: 2016-10-02T00:00
End: 2016-10-02T16:50
Location: Kansas

October 2, 2016 · NWS DDC · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

A near severe thunderstorm was reported in Seward county and one report of heavy rain was received in Comanche County.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS DDC wrote it up.

A near severe thunderstorm was reported in Seward county and one report of heavy rain was received in Comanche County.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Dodge City, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 1, 5:44 PM CST, 6 hours 16 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 1, 5:44 PM CST, 6 hours 16 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
644 PM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...Updated Aviation Section...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

A strong upper level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast will
progress eastward into the northern plains by Tuesday. Lee
troughing ahead of this feature will draw low level moisture into
the plains along and east of the 100th meridian. There is
tremendous uncertainty in the large scale features after Tuesday,
with some of the models being more progressive with upper level
troughing and others holding it father west.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through
early tonight in a warm advection pattern. Southeast winds will
continue as the aforementioned lee trough slowly strengthens. Lows
tonight will be in the 50s with 80s for highs on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

As the southern extension of the aforementioned upper level
trough approaches by Tuesday, there is a chance of thunderstorms
in central and south central Kansas. The western extent of
thunderstorm chances depends on how progressive the trough is.
If the system is very progressive like the ECMWF suggests, then
the thunderstorms could be confined to areas east of Hays and
Medicine Lodge as a cold front progresses through Dodge City and
Wakeeney in the early afternoon. Temperatures will be a little
cooler Tuesday in the 70s and 80s, with 70s for Wednesday.
Temperatures after Wednesday are speculative given the large
difference in model solutions; but abnormally cold or warm
readings are not likely. In this progressive upper level regime,
precipitation chances do not look good after Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat Oct 1 2016

Aviation weather will remain quiet through the period. No major
wind shift is forecast, although wind out of the southeast will
pick up in intensity during the late morning through late
afternoon hours Sunday -- sustained winds of 14 to 17 knots and
gusts in the lower to mid 20s at times. VFR conditions will
prevail in the fairly dry and warm airmass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  84  58  86 /  20  10  10  10
GCK  52  84  58  86 /  10  10   0  10
EHA  52  85  59  88 /  10  10   0  10
LBL  56  85  60  86 /  10  10   0  10
HYS  53  80  59  84 /  10  10  10  10
P28  57  82  58  84 /  20  10   0  10

&&

.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Finch
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Umscheid

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 1, 3:58 AM CST, 20 hours 2 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
458 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-012200-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
458 AM CDT SAT OCT 1 2016 /358 AM MDT SAT OCT 1 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

DAY 1 DISCUSSION
----------------

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS.

DAY 1 HAZARDS
-------------
* LIGHTNING: LIMITED RISK

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

DAYS 2-7 DISCUSSION
-------------------

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ON TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS NEXT WEEK TO BE STRONG OR EVEN
SEVERE. FAR SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL SEE AN INCREASED WILDFIRE THREAT
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

DAYS 2-7 HAZARDS
----------------
* SUNDAY
  NO HAZARDS.

* MONDAY
  - LIGHTNING: LIMITED RISK
  - NON THUNDERSTORM WIND: LIMITED RISK
  - FIRE WEATHER: LIMITED RISK

* TUESDAY
  - LIGHTNING: ELEVATED RISK
  - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM: ELEVATED RISK
  - FIRE WEATHER: LIMITED RISK

* WEDNESDAY
  - LIGHTNING: LIMITED RISK

* THURSDAY
  - FIRE WEATHER: LIMITED RISK

* FRIDAY
  - FIRE WEATHER: LIMITED RISK

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

The radar

The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 98 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:58 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 heavy rain, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Rain, Comanche

When: October 2, 12:00 AM CST to 8:00 AM CST
Where: Comanche County, 11.56 mi E of Wilmore
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 37.320, -99.010

Rainfall of 3.25 inches was reported.

Hail, Seward

When: October 2, 4:50 PM CST
Where: Seward County, 19.63 mi N of (Lbl)liberal Arpt
Measured: 0.88 in hail
Reported by: Public
Coordinates: 37.330, -101.030

What these are

Heavy Rain: Rainfall totals unusual for the place and season that did not produce a flood.
Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Kansas in 2016 Every state in 2016 This day in weather history Warnings in Kansas, October 2016

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 664325, 664324.