A weakness in the upper level ridge allowed thunderstorms to form over the mountains of northern Mexico and move across into Texas. One of these storms produce large hail.
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The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
A weakness in the upper level ridge allowed thunderstorms to form over the mountains of northern Mexico and move across into Texas. One of these storms produce large hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 22, 1:57 PM CST, 3 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 257 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)... Low chances for thunderstorms will continue tonight through Monday as a weak ridging feature aloft over S TX keeps SW flow aloft and a teleconnection with the Pacific tropics. Higher chances for showers are expected this afternoon/evening with a subtle drying trend to follow into the early part of the work week. This afternoon, a pooling of low level moisture is concentrating daytime showers generally along and east of Hwy 281, but the area is shifting slowly west as is suggested by the hi-res model solutions. There is poor agreement on where the stronger storms develop, and with the cap holding over most areas, there is a chance for no thunderstorms developing at all. Nevertheless, the breaking of the cap could lead to a brief strong to severe storm, with slow forecast storm motions likely preventing supercell development over most of the area. By mid evening some outflow induced dryline convection to the north and/or higher terrain convection west of DRT could lead to a supercell or two, as most models show convective focal points shifting to the North and West with time and stability increasing over the Coastal Prairies. Lower overall rain chances are forecast for Monday/Monday night, with the non-NAM model solutions suggesting less low level moisture convergence. The high CAPE/low shear environment still capable of generating an isolated severe storm or two. The presence of abundant clouds through much of the day should also help keep convective temps at bay and help with capping. && .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Model consensus shows Tuesday as the most stable day of the week with dprog/dt analysis showing the mid level height fields build with time. the stability should gradually weaken to the west as the ridge axis shifts east by late Wednesday. A few strong storms are suggested for Wednesday evening near the Rio Grande, especially by the GFS, but models show better agreement on destabilization occurring Thursday into Friday in shifting the persistent upper troughing feature east from the SWRN US into TX. This pattern could lead to a heavy rain/flash flood threat given the enhanced multi-day rain chances above normal soil moisture levels and stream flows. The trough is shown to lift north and become increasingly shallow, so will prefer to keep most of the rain chances out of the likely category for now. Medium range models show varying degrees of stability heading into the weekend with the deterministic GFS showing a drier trend than the ECMWF. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 73 87 73 87 74 / 30 20 10 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 72 87 73 87 74 / 30 20 10 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 72 88 73 87 74 / 20 20 10 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 70 85 71 85 72 / 30 20 10 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 74 89 74 91 75 / 30 20 20 10 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 71 86 72 86 73 / 30 20 10 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 73 89 73 89 74 / 20 20 20 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 72 87 73 87 74 / 20 20 10 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 73 87 74 87 76 / 20 30 - 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 74 88 73 88 74 / 20 20 10 20 10 Stinson Muni Airport 74 90 74 89 75 / 20 20 10 20 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen Synoptic/Grids...Oaks Public Service/Data Collection...30
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-231300- LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- 1155 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT. OVERALL THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS WILL BE LOW WITH MANY AREAS SEEING LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ON MONDAY THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...BUT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD BECOME SEVERE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MID WEEK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AS WELL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 153 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:27 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A thunderstorm produced large hail. Most of the hail was quarter size with the largest being golf ball size.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 633967.