An upper level trough translated southeastward over west Texas and resulted in heavy snowfall over the Stockton Plateau.
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The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
An upper level trough translated southeastward over west Texas and resulted in heavy snowfall over the Stockton Plateau.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 26, 9:29 AM CST, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
929 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016
.UPDATE...
Update to adjust the probability of precipitation, precipitation
type and snowfall totals through today.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A difficult forecast is not going to get any easier through this
morning and afternoon as a cold ua trough translates southeastward
over the region. A cold front has pushed south through the Rio
Grande with surface temperatures in the 30s and 40s over most of the
area, except 20s and low 30s in the Guadalupe Mountains and higher
elevations of the Davis Mountains.
Precipitation is expected to develop over the area through this
morning, and in particular this afternoon. Forecast soundings
indicate a fairly cold column of air above the surface, which will
yield a mix of rain and snow, except over the eastern Permian Basin,
Lower Trans Pecos and into the Big Bend where precipitation will
likely be all rain through the morning. However, as the above
mentioned ua trough moves over the area, at least a couple of
mesoscale bands of moderate to heavy snow are anticipated to develop
with fairly strong deep layer lift, including in the dendritic
growth layer. Although surface temperatures will generally be too
warm, that is, in the mid 30s to lower 40s, for snow to accumulate
appreciably, surface temperatures will likely cool to the lower to
mid 30s under the bands of snowfall. In the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains, freezing temperatures will not be as hard to come by.
Therefore, the biggest forecast challenge will be to determine where
exactly the bands of heavier snow will set up.
The latest indications are one of the heavier bands will be where
the precipitation is currently falling over the Lower Trans Pecos
and Stockton Plateau, with rain, sleet and snow changing over to
snow due in part to evaporative cooling of lower portions of the
column, and the entire column cooling under the ua trough this
afternoon. Another band is expected to form over or near the Davis
Mountains, then spread northeastward into the southern and central
Permian Basin this afternoon. Think 1 to 3 inches of snow could
accumulate in these areas, especially on grassy surfaces. We are
not expected to see a lot of snow/ice accumulations on roadways due
to the marginally cold surface temperatures. But locations along
and east of the Davis Mountains where the elevation is a little
higher and upslope flow could enhance precipitation, some ice could
form on roads there, in particular the Interstate 10 and 20 split in
southwestern Reeves county. Lastly, will leave the Winter Weather
Advisory in its current configuration until the afternoon forecast
issuance, but note that snowfall amounts may end of on the light
side across the SE NM Plains, Guadalupe Mountains and over the
northern most fringe of the Advisory in the northern Permian Basin.
An inch or less of snow appears to be most likely in these areas.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 529 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail this morning before low clouds move
in by early afternoon. Rain and snow will also develop with
lowering visbys possible. Clouds should begin to lift after sunset
as the storm system moves off to the east.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 523 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016/
.Snow Returns to West Texas and Southeast New Mexico today...
WV imagery shows an upper trough over central NM, set to merge
w/SW flow aloft over West Texas and Southeast New Mexico later
this morning. At the sfc, models develop and area of isentropic
upglide along the Texas/NM border and extending to the Permian
Basin by 15Z, which then develops SE to the Davis/Apache Mtns and
extending to the srn Permian Basin be 00Z Wed. Forecast soundings
are set to saturate quickly over the next 6-8 hrs, thru the
dendritic growth zone most locations by 18Z. Forecast soundings
pretty much point to snow most locations...with warm noses never
getting above 0C until near the Big Bend/Lwr Trans Pecos. However,
QPFs look light enough to keep snowfall amounts of 3" or less, and
we've opted to issue winter wx advisory for most of the FA thru
this evening. Day shift may want to cancel early if precip tapers
off before then.
Otherwise, a fairly benign week lies ahead, w/models bringing a
dry trough thru the region Friday or Friday night, and another
passing to the north Monday. Critical fire wx days will be
possible w/the passing of these troughs, especially Monday,
mainly due to increased 20' winds. Temps will climb above-normal
by Thu afternoon, and remain so thru the extended.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 38 26 50 31 / 70 10 0 0
Carlsbad 40 25 52 26 / 60 10 0 0
Dryden 50 34 56 30 / 70 40 0 0
Fort Stockton 42 28 49 33 / 80 20 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 41 26 46 31 / 50 10 0 0
Hobbs 44 26 51 30 / 60 10 0 0
Marfa 43 21 49 20 / 50 10 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 43 25 47 26 / 70 10 0 0
Odessa 41 28 48 27 / 70 10 0 0
Wink 43 29 52 26 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for Central
Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy
County-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County.
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight
for Andrews-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-
Glasscock-Guadalupe Mountains-Howard-Loving-Martin-Midland-
Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Upton-Van
Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.
&&
67/80HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 353 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-271000- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS- LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU- BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 353 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2016 /253 AM MST TUE JAN 26 2016/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN...DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND STOCKTON PLATEAU. ACCUMULATIONS HERE MAY REACH ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Snowfall of 4-5 inches reported in Fort Stockton, but 6-8 inches of snowfall reported 2 miles south of Fort Stockton. Interstate 10 had only one lane open due to heavy snowfall and the power company in Fort Stockton reported up to 2,000 people were without power.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 610462.