High Wind in Texas, April 6, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
542 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc analysis shows the cold front just arrived at KFST, moving at
a pretty good clip.  Not much push behind the front, w/pressure
gradients falling off quickly.  Gusty post-frontal winds will
slacken during the morning, before veering around to south after
sunset.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An active weather pattern will continue across the area over the
next week. The first item of interest is a cold front barreling its
way through the area this morning. At 3:30 AM CDT the front was
along the I-20 corridor and moving south at nearly 35 mph! Winds
behind the front are sustained around 25 to 30 mph with gusts over
40 mph. These strong wind speeds are only lasting about an hour
behind the front. Pressure rises are weakening and expect these
winds to diminish fairly quickly this morning. Will clear some
counties from the current Wind Advisory and continue to update as we
go through the morning. High winds are also still expected through
Guadalupe Pass over the next few hours following the frontal
passage. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler today and
lessening winds should make it a nice afternoon and evening.

A quick warm-up is in store for Thursday as we await our next storm
system currently over the Pacific. This upper trough will weaken as
it comes ashore along the West Coast Thursday, but disturbances in
the southwesterly mid level flow could spark a few showers or storms
across our area. The best chance looks to be Friday out west and
Saturday across the Permian Basin. Rainfall amounts look light at
this time, but the extra cloud cover will help keep temperatures
down to near seasonal values. Model solutions diverge heading into
next week so will not change much of the extended for now. The
overall pattern does appear to be changing though as storm systems
look to be taking more of a southern track over the next week or so.
Prospects for rain (and even some severe weather) may be going up so
stay tuned!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     75  47  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       77  45  89  55 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         83  54  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  77  50  91  58 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass                 71  53  82  54 /   0   0   0  10
Hobbs                          73  43  84  48 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          72  36  80  49 /   0   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           76  50  88  55 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                         77  50  88  56 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                           79  45  90  52 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...High Wind Warning until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning for Big
     Bend Area-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Ector-Marfa
     Plateau-Midland-Pecos-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
409 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-070915-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
409 AM CDT WED APR 6 2016 /309 AM MDT WED APR 6 2016/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS THIS MORNING IN
THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT. BRISK
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH VAN HORN AND THE HIGHWAY 54
CORRIDOR...PORTION OF THE PERMIAN BASIN...DAVIS AND APACHE
MOUNTAINS...STOCKTON AND MARFA PLATEAUS...BIG BEND AREA...AND
TERRELL COUNTY.  A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

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