Damaging Wind and Strong Wind in Kentucky, April 6, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
137 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

Had to make a last minute adjustment to issue a Wind Advisory for
part of the WFO PAH forecast area this afternoon. Indications are
that downward momentum will exceed 45 mph (minimum WFO PAH wind
gust criteria) in several locations in advance of or with
convective lines.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

Primary near term concerns include the potential for showers and
thunderstorms, in addition to gusty winds today.

A shortwave trough extending from the Upper Midwest into the
Central Plains early this morning will track east into the
Mississippi River Valley today. At the surface, low pressure over
the Upper Midwest early this morning will track east into the
Great Lakes region by the end of the day. This low will drag a
cold front across the immediate forecast area this afternoon and
early this evening.

Along and just ahead of the front, a relatively narrow band of
showers and scattered thunderstorms is forecast to move across the
region during the late morning and afternoon. The precipitation
should be rather short-lived--only lasting a couple hours at any
one location. As a result, rainfall amounts should only range from
one quarter to one half inch. It will also be quite windy today,
with 15 to 25 mph sustained southwest winds and occasional gusts
as high as 30 to 40 mph. While this falls short of Wind Advisory
criteria, we will address the wind in a Special Weather Statement.

The front and its associated precipitation should largely be east
of the area within a few hours after sunset, with a return to dry
conditions overnight and early Thursday morning. However,
disturbances in the cyclonic flow around an upper level low over
southeastern Canada will keep a good deal of clouds and the chance
for showers in the forecast for at least a part of the area
Thursday and Friday. The potential on Thursday encompasses all but
our far western counties in the Ozark foothills of southeast
Missouri. The chance on Friday is primarily across southeast
Illinois, southwest Indiana, and the Kentucky Pennyrile region.

The Ozark foothills of southeast Missouri may also experience an
elevated fire danger Thursday and Friday afternoons. While
relative humidity and wind are not expected to exceed criteria
either day, conditions will be close enough for at least a close
watch both afternoons.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

Below average confidence in the long term mainly due to lack model
agreement on timing, track, and coverage of multiple systems
affecting the area.

High pressure at the surface and northwest flow aloft should keep
the region dry and cool through Saturday night. Beyond that there is
little to no agreement between long term models so forecast is
output from the Superblend for the most part with a few
modifications. Therefore, rather than go through each 12 hour period
explaining the differences between models, will just give a brief
synopsis of systems/precipitation chances affecting the area
through the rest of the period.

Precipitation can be expected over all or part of the area from
Sunday through the end of the period as a couple of slow moving
systems move across the area. At this time it look like the highest
probability for precipitation area wide will be Monday and Monday
night. Instability will be hard to come by for the most part in the
long term, but enough to mention small chances for thunder Sunday
night, Monday, and Monday night.

Temperatures will be taking somewhat of a roller coaster ride
through the extended. They start off the period below normal, warm
to at or above normal through the middle of the period, then cool
back to near normal by the very end. In fact, over most of the area
temperatures are expected to drop to at or below freezing both
Friday and Saturday nights.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Apr 6 2016

Mainly VFR conditions with WFO PAH 18z Wednesday TAF issuance.
Added MVFR conditions briefly at KPAH and KOWB to account for
brief thunderstorm window this afternoon. Kept VFR ceilings in the
KEVV and KOWB TAF locations between 10z-18z Thursday to account
for wrap-around clouds behind the upper low.

Highest wind gusts expected in the KEVV and KOWB TAF locations
prior to and within line of shower activity this afternoon.

&&

.PAH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IL...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ILZ077-078-083-087.

MO...None.
IN...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for INZ081-082-085>088.

KY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for KYZ014>022.

&&

UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...RJP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...Smith

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
141 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-071000-
JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION-JOHNSON-POPE-
HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
141 PM CDT WED APR 6 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA, AS WELL
AS PART OF SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...AND THE PENNYRILE REGION OF WEST
KENTUCKY THROUGH 6 PM CDT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WIND ADVISORY
PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. GIVEN GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS
WILL BE ONGOING...THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE EVEN STRONGER WIND
GUSTS FROM 45 TO 55 MPH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55.
ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
GRADIENT WIND GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH. LINGERING CONVECTION EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WILL END RAPIDLY BY EARLY EVENING.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE IN THE SOUTHERN PENNYRILE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY POSE A BRIEF, BUT ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED
FIRE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARK FOOTHILLS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OR PART OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SMITH