Abnormally dry weather continued during the month of November and fueled the spread of at least moderate (D2) drought conditions over most portions of the Mid-South. A semi-permanent upper ridge of high pressure resulted in little rainfall which continued the drought conditions.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Abnormally dry weather continued during the month of November and fueled the spread of at least moderate (D2) drought conditions over most portions of the Mid-South. A semi-permanent upper ridge of high pressure resulted in little rainfall which continued the drought conditions. Dry conditions negatively impacted pastures, triggering more feeding of hay, and causing concern for hay shortages for the winter months. The drought caused river and lake levels to be at low levels.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 8, 5:23 AM CST, 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 523 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016 .UPDATE... Updated to include the 12z aviation discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 AM CST Tue Nov 8 2016/ DISCUSSION... A cold front currently stretches from Chicago, Illinois to Tulsa, Oklahoma. Meanwhile over the Mid-South, an abundance of showers has developed over the last several hours. The showers are in association with a shortwave that is moving through the area. The much needed showers continue at this time over most areas east of the Mississippi River. Models continue to show the chances for scattered showers through the day as the shortwave continues to push through the area. The combination of the showers and cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 60s for highs. By this evening, the cold front will begin to push into Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and Northwest Tennessee. As a result, the best chances of showers will shift to this particular area. Models show showers diminishing in coverage along the front as it pushes further southward into the CWA after midnight. Will leave 20 POPS overnight just in case some lingering showers persist longer than expected. High pressure will begin to build into the region on Wednesday and will remain over the area through Thursday Night. Temperatures will be closer to normal with highs in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Another cold front will push through the Mid-South on Friday. However, this front will have limited moisture to work with as it pushes into the area. Thus, no rain is expected to occur with the front. Temperatures will finally feel like autumn by Saturday as high pressure moves back into area. Highs in most of East Arkansas, West Tennessee and the Missouri Bootheel may stay in the upper 50s. Would not be surprised to see a widespread frost Saturday Night. Temperatures will begin to rebound by Sunday as the high shifts east. A shortwave will then move through the region Sunday Night into Monday. The ECMWF shows some showers developing with the shortwave while the GFS is dry. For now will go with a dry forecast. KRM && .AVIATION... Scattered, light rain showers will continue much of this morning across the Mid-South, mainly affecting forecast terminals along and east of the Mississippi River. Impacts on-station will be limited to temporary reductions in visibility to 4 miles or so. These showers will gradually diminish in coverage by midday. Low ceilings will persist at KJBR and may temporarily affect KMEM this morning. Otherwise, expect generally VFR conditions by 18z, continuing through the evening hours. A cold front will move across the area tonight, shifting winds from the north after 07z. North winds may approach 7 kts at KMEM. Low clouds are expected to develop across the area late tonight in the wake of the cold front. Johnson && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 345 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2016 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-091145- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 345 AM CST TUE NOV 8 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. MEANWHILE...BURN BANS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND CROSS COUNTY ARKANSAS...WITH BURN RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE FOR WEST TENNESSEE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER NOTIFICATION STATEMENT AND FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. BURN BANS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND CROSS COUNTY ARKANSAS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. BURN RESTRICTIONS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR WEST TENNESSEE. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER NOTIFICATION STATEMENT AND FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. KRM
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
7 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) drought conditions developed around the county.
Severe (D2) drought conditions developed around the county.
Severe (D2) drought conditions developed around the county.
Severe (D2) drought conditions developed around the county.
Severe (D2) drought conditions developed around the county.
Severe (D2) drought conditions developed around the county.
Severe (D2) drought conditions developed around the county.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, November 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 667092, 667093, 667094, 667095, 667096, 667097, 667098.