Drought in Alabama, November 8 to 30, 2016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
947 PM EST Mon Nov 7 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Deep layer ridging will keep most areas dry tonight although we
could see a few showers over the marine area. The forecast is on
track for the overnight hours. Look for lows in the upper 40s
around Albany to the lower 60s at the coast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [626 PM EST]...

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

An upper level trough currently over the central part of the
country will move eastward through the period. Increasing
moisture and lift ahead of it will lead to an area of rain along
the central Gulf coast on Tuesday. This will approach the local
area Tuesday night and Wednesday. Most of the rain is expected
to be confined to northwest Florida and offshore with very little
rainfall expected in southeast Alabama or southern Georgia.
Instability also looks very weak over land, so any thunderstorms
are also expected to remain offshore. Average rainfall amounts
over land look light for areas fortunate enough to see any
beneficial rainfall with heavier amounts remaining offshore. High
temperatures are expected to be held down in the mid 70s on
Wednesday due to the cloudy conditions. Low temperatures will
generally range from the lower 50s across the far north to lower
60s long the coast on Tuesday night with cooler air moving in on
Wednesday night behind the system.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

After the passage of a weak cold front Wednesday night, dry
weather is expected to return to our area. A second upper level
trough may clip the CWA Friday night into Saturday, but dry
conditions are expected to continue locally with a lack of deep
moisture.

Later, a broad area of high pressure should build into the area.
Very dry air will remain in place until the start of the next work
week. In general, expect dry conditions to prevail through the
late week into the weekend across our area with a slight increase
in cloud cover possible Saturday night into Sunday. Forecasts
shows a slight increase in PoPs for Monday with the next
approaching system. Highs will continue to be in the mid 70s each
day, with lows in the mid 50s near the coast and mid to upper 40s
everywhere else.

.AVIATION [Through 00Z Wednesday]...

VFR through the period. Surface high pressure across the northeast
CONUS will maintain northeasterly winds across the area. A mid
level disturbance to our west will push high clouds across the
region through the period but no rainfall is expected.

.MARINE...

The small craft advisory has been expanded to include the near
shore waters from the Ochlockonee River west to Destin through
Tuesday morning as an increase in easterly winds is expected
overnight. A gradual shift to northerly winds with a decrease in
speed is expected after Tuesday and lasting for the remainder of
the week.

.FIRE WEATHER...

RH values are expected to gradually increase over the next few
days with continued low level easterly flow and the approach of
an upper level low from the west. RH values will meet the 25
percent or less threshold in portions of southern Georgia once
again tomorrow, but winds will once again remain below the
critical threshold for red flag criteria.

Expect RH's to rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s north, and
50s south on Wednesday with slight chances for showers across
the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. RHs will drop back into the
20s and 30s Thursday and Friday with winds currently forecast to
generally remain under 10 knots.

.HYDROLOGY...

Rainfall on Wednesday is expected to be mainly light for areas
fortunate enough to see any with the greatest amounts right along
the coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   55  79  60  75  50 /   0   0  30  30  10
Panama City   61  76  62  73  55 /   0  10  40  40  10
Dothan        50  77  54  76  46 /   0   0  30  20   0
Albany        48  77  53  76  45 /   0   0  20  20   0
Valdosta      50  77  55  75  48 /   0   0  20  20  10
Cross City    56  78  58  75  52 /   0  10  30  30  10
Apalachicola  61  76  62  74  57 /   0   0  50  50  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 11 PM CST this evening for South
     Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal Waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

NEAR TERM...Wool
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD/FDC
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Pullin
HYDROLOGY...DVD