A cold front passed through West Tennessee during the evening hours on March 15, 2016. The front interacted with a marginally moist and unstable airmass resulting in isolated thunderstorms.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A cold front passed through West Tennessee during the evening hours on March 15, 2016. The front interacted with a marginally moist and unstable airmass resulting in isolated thunderstorms. A couple of storms produced large hail and damaging winds in Tipton County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 8:53 PM CST, 12 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 953 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO EXTEND POPS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. && .DISCUSSION... A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST AND GRAZE THE MID SOUTH. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAS BEEN LIMITED FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING BY A STOUT CAPPING INVERSION BASED AROUND 7.5 KFT. THE CAPPING INVERSION APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS OF 0230Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AND IF THE CAPPING INVERSION CAN WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE CAPE VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7.5 C/KM. IF STORMS CAN MATURE...THEN THEY MAY BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. LOW LEVEL TURNING OF A STRONG WIND FIELD WHERE LATEST KNQA VAD WIND PROFILER INDICATES 40 KTS AT 1 KFT AND 60 KTS AT 3 KFT. THIS WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO IF CONVECTION CAN DEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY AND OVERCOME ANY RESIDUAL CAPPING. AGAIN...DEEP CONVECTION IS CONDITIONAL UPON THE CAP COMPLETELY ERODING WHICH IS DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS TIME. PLAN TO ADD STRONG/SEVERE STORM WORDING INTO THE HWO BUT MENTION CONDITIONAL NATURE. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT SHORTLY. JLH && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016/ DISCUSSION... 3PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH MO. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S... MIXED LAYER MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG PREVAILED OVER EASTERN AR. HOWEVER...A STEEP ELEVATED INVERSION BELOW 850MB WAS CAPPING DEEP CONVECTION...AND EVEN SUPPRESSING CUMULUS FORMATION. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES WEST TN/NORTH MS IN THE EARLY EVENING...THIS CAP WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN BUT NOT ERODE COMPLETELY UNDER MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS. FRONTAL FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS...ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED LAYER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION. WITH MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES INITIALLY NEAR 7.5C/KM... LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE MEMPHIS METRO. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING... COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL MID MARCH WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH. TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS SHOWED BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL OCCUR NEAR THE GULF COAST...WHERE RELATIVELY FAST WESTERLIES OVERSPREAD A WARM AND HUMID GULF AIRMASS. A LOW END CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW DROPPING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY/SATURDAY. OTHERWISE... CLOUDY AND COOLER OVER THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BEHIND A FRIDAY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PWB && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A TEMPO MVFR LAYER AT TUP. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE SITES EARLY WITH BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE LEFT VCTS OUT OF MEM...MKL...AND JBR DUE TO A LOWER PROBABILITY...BUT KEPT THE REMARK IN AT TUP. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER WESTERLY...WITH SPEEDS OF 6-10 KTS. JAB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1000 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-170500- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 1000 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS ISOLATED AND CONDITIONAL. THIS THREAT MAY BE REALIZED IF A CAPPING INVERSION ERODES COMPLETELY AND ALLOWS FOR VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS. THIS STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT RESIDENTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED IF WARNINGS ARE ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BECOME SEVERE TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN LOCALIZED AREAS TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. JLH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
950 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
MOZ113-115-TNZ001-160315-
PEMISCOT MO-DUNKLIN MO-LAKE TN-
950 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR...
PEMISCOT COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...
LAKE COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
AT 950 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED OVER DEERING...OR NEAR
HAYTI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.
PEOPLE IN PEMISCOT...SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN AND LAKE COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
LAT...LON 3640 8936 3635 8941 3628 8942 3608 8996
3630 8996 3639 8975 3642 8971 3640 8967
3640 8959 3634 8953 3638 8951 3642 8954
3646 8952 3650 8954 3650 8949 3647 8949
3646 8946 3650 8942 3650 8935 3649 8935
TIME...MOT...LOC 0250Z 244DEG 54KT 3623 8986SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
953 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
ARZ028-TNZ048-049-160330-
MISSISSIPPI AR-TIPTON TN-LAUDERDALE TN-
953 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2016
...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
CENTRAL TIPTON COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
SOUTHWESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY IN WEST TENNESSEE...
AT 953 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL OR
LARGER AND WINDS AT LEAST 40 MPH WAS LOCATED NEAR JOINER...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF WILSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.
VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.
PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL TIPTON AND SOUTHWESTERN
LAUDERDALE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY.
LAT...LON 3540 8974 3540 8978 3539 8987 3540 9004
3538 9008 3541 9011 3541 9013 3540 9014
3538 9014 3538 9017 3539 9018 3542 9017
3543 9015 3544 9023 3569 9009 3576 8971
TIME...MOT...LOC 0253Z 244DEG 54KT 3547 9011The Memphis radar (KNQA), 29 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:03 UTC.
2 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Penny to nickel size hail fell in the vicinity of Fort Pillow State Park and Fulton.
Straight line winds knocked down large trees near Old Highway 51. Smaller trees and limbs were knocked down in the city limits of Brighton.
A large amount of hail fell one mile south of the intersection of Highway 14 and Highway 59 between Covington and Mason. The hail began as quarter size and diminished to pea size.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2016Every state in 2016This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, March 2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 624620, 624621, 624623.